Posted:
#1
YTD: 39-27 ATS
Oakland +10.5
After swearing off these pigs for good just two days ago I found myself begrudgingly hitting submit on them yet again. I usually place a good portion of weight my bets using the situational angles. Of course stats and matchups are always at play as well but for this game I am approaching it 100% from the situational angle. I'm not going to waste time again this week saying how I still think Oakland has some form of talent because it just hasn't translated at the window in forever.
There have been widespread rumors that many Raiders players do not respect Dennis Allen as a coach. Even though they may not respect him as a coach I imagine deep down most respect him as a man. Coach Allen has not been with the team this week because of the death of his father but is flying back in to coach this game. I believe do to these circumstances this is a situation where the Raiders players say to themselves something to the effect of "You know what I don't like this man as a coach but he's been through a hell of a lot this week and it says something that he came back for this game. I'm going to put our differences behind us and give a really strong effort for this man this week because another poor effort is the last thing he needs". If the Raiders do come together and play hard for the coach this week they may also play hard for themselves as they know they are going nowhere and this is the biggest game left on their schedule in a primetime game against their rivals. If they are ever going to go all out to win a game this is the one, especially after Denver spanked them by 30+ earlier in the year.
As much as I think we have a "play on" situation for Oakland I also think there is a "play against" situation for Denver. Put yourself in their shoes. They have just clinched the division and are rolling and can do no wrong. Now they play a complete doormat that they already spanked by 30+. Their motivation here is going to be just show up, get the W and move on. In fact it has been that way for three weeks as they have not played a complete game and gone for the jugular. Even in getting backdoored by SD and TB the Broncos only won 1 quarter in each of those games. This team has spun itself into a very dangerous habit right now of not playing good ball for 60 minutes against inferior opponents. That is a tough habit to kick this time of year especially when you find yourself playing another doormat with a huge game @ BAL on deck. Denver also has a defensive-minded conservative coach and veteran QB who knows that staying healthy is of the utmost importance this late in the year on the road on 4 days rest.
Their is always a fear betting against Manning but his teams have generally run out of the gates hot, running uptempo, no huddle you name it, and then slowed down as the playoffs have neared. In Indianapolis Manning was just 16-25-1 ATS after the bye week when laying 7.5 or more. And so far this year he is 0-3 ATS in that role. So maybe it's not so scary as most think.
McFadden is a big addition for the Raiders in this one. Even though his rushing numbers have not been good he is a great receiver and blocker and needs to be accounted for every time he is on the field. He got hurt early in the Tampa game and I don't think it's any coincidence the Raiders have gone 0-5 SU & ATS since that time.
I know this was a huge writeup and I could have just said Denver probably shows up and sleepwalks while the Raiders treat it like a playoff game but the more I think about this the more I can actually see Oakland winning SU. Of course when it's a 34-13 Broncos final I will be wondering WTF I was doing betting the Raiders AGAIN.
Oakland +10.5
After swearing off these pigs for good just two days ago I found myself begrudgingly hitting submit on them yet again. I usually place a good portion of weight my bets using the situational angles. Of course stats and matchups are always at play as well but for this game I am approaching it 100% from the situational angle. I'm not going to waste time again this week saying how I still think Oakland has some form of talent because it just hasn't translated at the window in forever.
There have been widespread rumors that many Raiders players do not respect Dennis Allen as a coach. Even though they may not respect him as a coach I imagine deep down most respect him as a man. Coach Allen has not been with the team this week because of the death of his father but is flying back in to coach this game. I believe do to these circumstances this is a situation where the Raiders players say to themselves something to the effect of "You know what I don't like this man as a coach but he's been through a hell of a lot this week and it says something that he came back for this game. I'm going to put our differences behind us and give a really strong effort for this man this week because another poor effort is the last thing he needs". If the Raiders do come together and play hard for the coach this week they may also play hard for themselves as they know they are going nowhere and this is the biggest game left on their schedule in a primetime game against their rivals. If they are ever going to go all out to win a game this is the one, especially after Denver spanked them by 30+ earlier in the year.
As much as I think we have a "play on" situation for Oakland I also think there is a "play against" situation for Denver. Put yourself in their shoes. They have just clinched the division and are rolling and can do no wrong. Now they play a complete doormat that they already spanked by 30+. Their motivation here is going to be just show up, get the W and move on. In fact it has been that way for three weeks as they have not played a complete game and gone for the jugular. Even in getting backdoored by SD and TB the Broncos only won 1 quarter in each of those games. This team has spun itself into a very dangerous habit right now of not playing good ball for 60 minutes against inferior opponents. That is a tough habit to kick this time of year especially when you find yourself playing another doormat with a huge game @ BAL on deck. Denver also has a defensive-minded conservative coach and veteran QB who knows that staying healthy is of the utmost importance this late in the year on the road on 4 days rest.
Their is always a fear betting against Manning but his teams have generally run out of the gates hot, running uptempo, no huddle you name it, and then slowed down as the playoffs have neared. In Indianapolis Manning was just 16-25-1 ATS after the bye week when laying 7.5 or more. And so far this year he is 0-3 ATS in that role. So maybe it's not so scary as most think.
McFadden is a big addition for the Raiders in this one. Even though his rushing numbers have not been good he is a great receiver and blocker and needs to be accounted for every time he is on the field. He got hurt early in the Tampa game and I don't think it's any coincidence the Raiders have gone 0-5 SU & ATS since that time.
I know this was a huge writeup and I could have just said Denver probably shows up and sleepwalks while the Raiders treat it like a playoff game but the more I think about this the more I can actually see Oakland winning SU. Of course when it's a 34-13 Broncos final I will be wondering WTF I was doing betting the Raiders AGAIN.
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