NFL Week 13

Yes I hit with the Saints last night as well. Nice hit on the Under.

It's hard to tell as I don't think English is your first language but you may be on to something with games being fixed. So every time a kicker misses a FG he is on the take? Good analysis on the total as well. They raised it 2.5 points so you bet the Under, yep, ok , makes sense. Keep at it, this sounds original and you may be on to something here. Let us know how it turns out.

I'll be following this system closely.

Buffalo sucks.

They were in a tremendous spot last week, I could see it coming from a mile away that they would beat Miami. But the fact is this is not a good spot for them and the Jets are a better team with better match ups in this game.

The Bills have had success throwing to Terrell Owens the last couple weeks, well you can pretty much forget about that here as Revis will shut him down. Most importantly though Buffalo's O-line is really banged up and shuffled around. There are guys starting who have no business starting. Last week they gave up 6 sacks and allowed Fitzpatrick to be hit 13 times in just 26 attempts! There are holes everywhere and I expect Rex Ryan to send the heat big time here and IMO it will be too much to handle. No doubt if the Jets blitz the RB's are going to have to stay back to help block and with T.O shut down that doesn't leave many options for Fitzpatrick.

Although they are getting some guys back, the Bills are still very weak up front. Their run defense is terrible and they can't rush the passer. The Jets have a good ground game and very good O-line so they should have no problems opening holes here. The Jets ran for over 300 yards in the 1st meeting between these two teams.

Buffalo had no business winning that earlier game in the meadowlands. They were thoroughly outplayed but they got fortunate because Sanchez chucked 5 picks and the Jets had a whooping 6 turnovers! I believe that was Sanchez's first "cold weather game". That won't be a problem here as this game is being played in a dome in Toronto. The Bills played here last year on a Sunday against Miami and the atmosphere was dead. There were more Miami fans as the hardcore Bills fans couldn't afford the ridiculous ticket prices. Miami won the game. The Bills players are already lobbying for more support this time so I don't really think they are too excited to play here. The atmosphere was electric at Ralph Wilson last week and if I'm on the Bills I'm really disappointed this game isn't back in Buffalo.

Both are very, very solid.

Tennessee +7

I'm sure everyone and their dog likes this pick but I don't care. How can you fade the Titans right now? I have to eat crow on Vince Young, he's really played well and can even throw now. This is just too many points IMO for a red hot team against a team that quite frankly is just scraping by every week. I wouldn't expect it out of Peyton Manning but now that the Colts have won the division and are 3 games up for home field advantage I think they may subconsciously let up a bit this week after such a run of nail biters. The Titans pass defense numbers don't look great but a lot of that game when 3/4^th of their starting secondary was out and they were starting late round rookies. They are back now and have played well in recent weeks adding to a very energetic defensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against the Colts O-line.

Indy's run D is a bit better this year but they still aren't very good. There has been gaping holes in the defensive line the last two weeks and I think Tennessee's big, good, O-line can push them off the ball especially in the middle. If Chris Johnson can get past the line of scrimmage then look out, he will beat these linebackers to the edge and then see ya later. He could go for 150 again here on the fast track of the dome. Interpret as you see fit but since Vince Young arrived in Nashville they are 20-9 ATS as dogs and 5-0 ATS seeking in-season revenge against a division rival.

Dallas +1

It's December so this is a dangerous play trusting the Boys and Romo. But I feel they are easily the better team. The Giants just aren't very good this year. Their offensive and defensive lines have played subpar and they can't run the ball, quite honestly they look like one of the softest teams in the league. Now we hear that Manning is banged up, their best LB and defensive leader just went on IR and oh yeah, Dallas is pretty good. I saw all I needed to see from the Giants two weeks ago at home against Atlanta off their bye week. Up 14 in the 4^th the Falcons drove down the field on these guys with ease to tie it up.

The main reason the Cowboys are playing so well is the defense. Apart from the first two games of the season this unit has been one of the best in the NFL, rushing the passer, stopping the run and covering WR. It shows up in the stats too as since Week 2 they've only given up about 300 yards a game and 15 points a game which is at the top of the league.

The Giants beat Dallas earlier this year in Dallas spoiled the Boys opening of their grand palace. But Dallas was the better team in that game. Tony Romo played horribly and the Giants won the game thanks to his handful of turnovers. I think Dallas gets some sweet divisional revenge here and proves they are the better team and the first meeting was a fluke.

New England -5

The Patriots are way better than the Dolphins, this line is a ridiculous overreaction to last week. The Saints make everybody look bad in the dome. It's going to be “Pats have no d” “Pats can't win on the road” “The run is over” talk all week long, yadda, yadda, yadda. This team is at their best after a loss and I expect them to work very hard this week and come out focused to spank the Dolphins. Since 2003 the Pats are 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS.

More to come.

Good Jets writeup, Mac.  I signed on to give my 2 cents on the game, but you pretty much hit every major point.  This may even be a rare two unit play for me.

What do you think of Greg Williams when it comes to playing his former team?  Do you think he has the edge knowing Campbell and company, or do you think the Washington brass remember enough about him and his schemes to have a winning gameplan on offense?  I was all hyped up about Washington in this spot, but I am starting to have second thoughts.  Lots of injuries and bullshit to sift through before I hit this one.

Ugly dog play of the day...........The Browns + whatever it goes to at gametime.  Call me crazy, but I don't think SD repeats last week's performance.  They are on a 6 game winning streak and it seems that everything has been going their way.  Penalties and turnovers horribly inflated last weeks blowout of KC.  Turnovers inflated their blowout of Denver.  They were outplayed in beating the Giants.  They sleepwalked through a victory against the Raiders.  I'm starting to hear a media buzz about how LT is back.  Yes he has looked better than he has the last nightmare year and a half, but at the end of the day I don't really think he is doing anything other than NOT looking horrible.  Take away that Denver game, and the Chargers don't have a game where they rushed for 4 ypc in months.  SD has a heckuva journey across the country from sunny skies to damp December in Cleveland.  They also have a road trip to Dallas next week in what will probably be designated as the primetime game.  That's always a zoo, but especially this year in that new stadium.  Cleveland is fairly awful, but they have been respectable in recent weeks and respectable is all they need to cover(hopefully) 14+.  Maybe that fuckwod Cribbs will run a kick FOR me for once.  Just seems like a good spot for a SD letdown.

Like your NE play.  Like your Tenn play(although I don't think I have the balls to fuck with Manning).  Not too sure about the Dallas game though.  I wish I could give you a 2 paragraph reason why, but its more of a gut feeling thing.  I just have that feeling that the Giants show up and make the NFC East a bit more interesting.

What do you think of the Falcons here?  I gotta be nuts backing these assclowns, but I think no Matt Ryan moved that line a good 3-4 points, yet Redman is gonna bring the same QB play to the table(nothing against Ryan, he just is in a bit of the ol' sophomre slump and Redman is a worhty backup).  So hiked up line, two biggest Philly weapons missing, and dome rocking for Atlanta's last gasp for the playoffs might equal a SU win for the Falcons.

Nice insight as usual.  I'm glad you were in on that fixed game Monday night. 

 

Cheapest tickets for the game are over $100

 

As always, excellent, excellent work, Mac.



I'm with you 100% on the Patriots.  To be honest, I think you'll see them run run run and do it with success, as Miami's loss of Ferguson continues to be the most under-discussed topic in the league.

I'll be on the Redskins here because this really is their Super Bowl.  They have the best secondary in the league, and they're in an amazing spot.  If the Saints want to go into that environment, against that team, and win by DD, I have no problem handing my money to the bookie. 

I agree with your assessment on the Jets-Bills.  Still, I don't know if I can bring myself to back Sanchez.  He has really been cliff diving since Week 5.  I'll stay away from that one.

I would normally agree with your reasoning here; but I think this is uncharted territory for the Pats. How many of those losses were blowouts in primetime? I think there is a POSSIBILITY NE is still dazed here.

Personally, I will be staying away.

Funny thing is, I would actually feel much better about this game if the Pats were favored by more than a TD; but the fact that they are not leads me to be more curious as to why. I think this is more than a case of vegas gauging the public perception. This line doesn't sit well with me. Gun to my head I would lean Miami here.

what do you make of the dallas line move?
the wrong team favored?

I'm not really sure what to make of the Saints/skins game now. I was liking Washington here originally, then I was off and now I'm coming around again. I'd want the full 10 though if I end up playing it. This really is a shitty spot for the Saints. Washington does have a good defense but I don't know if they can score that much, they are going to need New Orleans to make mistakes which they very well may do in this situation. As far as Gregg Williams goes I think what you mentioned may balance out. Injuries are big here, hopefully Haynesworth plays.

Could be a nice pick there on Cleveland. I've gotten fucked with them twice as home dogs this year and they've been blown out so I'll pass but if I had to play the game I would certainly take the points in a crappy spot for the Chargers. You hit the nail on the head with the SD running game as well, it's not doing very well. LT has been scoring a lot of short TD's lately and people see those highlights on sportscenter and think that the old LT is back. If he wasn't scoring those TD's he'd still be labeled as washed up. The SD run game is very inefficient right now.

Dallas isn't my favorite play of the week but at the end of the day I think they are good enough to get it done. We've been waiting for a statement game from the Giants for two months and they have routinely laid eggs, I just don't think they are that good but it does look like a spot where if they were going to explode it could be here. I also have a feeling the Cowboys are sick and tired about hearing about their December struggles, I know I am.

I really want to play Philly here but this line bugs me. Its just high enough to make me say ahhhhhhhhh................? I've seen Philly shit the bed on the road numerous times over the years in spots like this but I'm just not feeling Atlanta here, I think they are worse than their record. They are 5-0 at home this season but have been outgained in 4 of those games and none of the competition was as good as Philly. The big play Philly offense could thrive here even without Jackson as Avant filled in nicely last week. Atlanta is negative in overall YPC and YPA at home while Philly is positive in both on the road. chris Redman could play well here as backups seem to do in their first start but I'm not so sure against this Philly defense. He was good last week but he was sacked 6 times and he was playing the Bucs defense. Injuries are a huge concern here though as Turner, Jenkins and the Falcons best o-lineman have yet to practice this week so the injury report is definetely worth checking out here for anyone considering betting the game.

Nice hit on the Jets.

GL this week Pete. I got a terrible line in that Pats game. Saw a -3 -110 earlier today. Not sure why it went down but I still think NE gets it done even on a short week, there are a lot of very pissed off people in Foxboro this week.

That is a fair point about NE. If it was a different team I might agree with you but this team has just been so resilient over the years and seem to be at their best when their backs are against the wall.

Good luck this week buddy, was on the Jets pretty big today.  Probably getting ready to make a play on Tennessee here soon.  Giants are going to beat up on Romo Sunday

Romo will play his worst game of the season Sunday...Mark it down.

Yep.

Jets

Good shit!  Fucking Jets almost gave me a heart attack for the second straight week, but they got the job done. 

Mac, you ever fuck around with college football?  A few years back I went apeshit with college and I did "okay," but at the end of the day it was just too much to handle doing that and the pros.  This year I shied away from all college action, but I have kept my eye on it as a fan, and the two big games tomorrow I really like.  Pitt +2.5(hopefully 3) and Alabama +6(hopefully 7) both look DELICIOUS.  I think I'm gonna throw a half unit on both of them, or maybe a small ML parlay for shits and giggles.  Any thoughts on either of those games?

 

I've only bet maybe 1 or 2 games a week this year. I'd like to be able to follow it more closely but just don't have the time.

I'm probably not the best person to ask about those two games but I've really felt all year that Cincy was overrated. They are that stereotypical passing team that will get exposed when it really counts. I don't know if it will happen here but if I played the game I would absolutely take Pittsburgh.

As far as Florida goes I made a very small play on them at -3.5 a couple weeks ago when Pinny released an early line. Great spot to middle here but it is only a small play and I think I'll stick with it. As far as the current line goes I could make a case either way. I really feel Florida will win this game though. People are always looking for edges when they bet games like this, looking at the finest details, trends, etc but sometimes I like to go by the motto "keep it simple, stupid". I think that applies here. This Florida team has been through it all, especially the seniors and with a leader like Tebow who has been so clutch I really just can't see them losing. When I look at the QB matchup of Tebow vs McIlroy I give a massive advantage to Florida. Tebow just leads and gets shit done. I don't see that with McIlroy and I think he's going to struggle and/or cost Alabama the game here against a Florida defense that is stuffed with veterans who aren't scared of the big stage and has about 8 NFL players on it. I know it sounds simple but this team and Tebow have been through so much and come so far I just can't see them losing here. Which team is more likely to choke? Which team is more likely to go out, make plays, and win the game? Plus, Tebow has god on his side. I realize all that doesn't lend much to covering the -5.5/6 but that's all I have.

I think the more important thing to keep an eye on here is the loser of this game. Alabama was 12-0 last year coming into this game with a shot at a National Championship on the line, they got their dreams crushed and got stuck in a bowl they did not want to be in and ended up losing to Utah. I was ripped on the College Forum a couple weeks ago for saying this but I don't think Alabama showed up for that game last year, it was just too big of a letdown off of what could have been that they did not care. People said "BS, Utah was the better team" 'Nice excuse!" whatever, that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it. But the point is I can see the EXACT same thing happening this season. The loser of this game is going to lose their bowl game as well. There is too much on the line here for both teams and a loss would be too much for these teams to overcome IMO (remember these are kids were dealing with here). I don't know if it will be Boise, TCU, Cincy or whomever but they WILL beat the loser of this game in the bowl.



How the heck do I always end up with 1000 word essays?

btw, Glyde - what do you make of the Vikings/Cards game? Very interesting game from a fan standpoint but what do you think from a betting perspective?

Philadelphia -5.5

For reasons mentioned above.

gotta love tenn

New England has no real road win, why lay the points ? I'm kind of hoping the chalkies nail this game and I get a fat number with Miami.

That's better than 1,000 , , and 's.

I agree 100% on Cincy.  So overrated.  Pitt is the perfect team to exploit them.  Betting the mustache always makes me a bit nervous though. 

Good points on the Florida game.  As for my Bama play, I was sort of on the same wavelength of keeping it simple(that and I simply don't study college enough to know all the little details).  You have two incredible defenses that are very comparable.  You have two incredible coaching staffs that are comparable.  A quick look at common opponents shows about the same level of play between both teams against those common foes. QB play very obviously goes to Tebow as you pointed out, and because of that the edge goes to Florida offensively.  I'm not big on the revenge angle(especially in a game of this magnitude as both teams are obviously gonna bring it 120%), but you gotta think Saban got these guys extra pumped up after last year's loss in the SEC championship game. 

Trolling through the intangibles, I also don't see a real edge on either side.  McElroy seems to take care of the ball pretty well for Bama(4 int's for both him and Tebow).  Neither team seems to choke the ball up on offense, and both teams make the defensive plays you would expect from two squads playing for the national championship.

So in the theme of keeping it simple:

Defense:  EVEN
Coaching: EVEN
Intangibles:  EVEN
Offense:  Edge Florida(single handedly because of Tebow>Mac)
Motivation:  Very slight edge Bama
Injuries:  Very slight edge Bama(I say this assuming Ingram is fine).

So after looking at that, I see a fairly even matchup where 6+ points in a neutral setting is way too much.

One other thing.  I agree 100% on your thoughts of last year's Bama-Utah game.  I pounded Utah last year in that game(rare 2 unit play for me), and at the end of the day it was simply because of Bama's balloon getting popped for the national championship.  If those teams would have had a rematch a week later, I would have taken Bama in a heartbeat.

As for Vikes-Cards, I went back and forth a few times on this, but I'm just gonna pass.  At first, I thought Arizona was in a prime spot for one of those games where they jump all over a team and it's 21-0 before you can blink.  Then I sort of shied away because of some of the injuries(mostly Warner but their OT Gandy is banged up along with Dansby and Hightower).  Then I was sort of looking at Minny for awhile as it may be that easy W that is right in front of you and you have to take advantage of those when they come along.  I was looking at how good Favre has been and how CONSISTANT the team has been the entire year.  I looked at the state of the NFC West and wondered just how Arizona might be motivated when there is no one in the rearview mirror for them to worry about. Then Warner pretty much said he is fine and roaring to go, and I looked at the game again and pulled another switcheroo.  Sure, Minny has been looking amazing, but against good opponents they have not nearly looked as impressive.  Lost to Pitt.  Beat GB twice, but both games they came very close to choking away the games at the end.  Same with Baltimore.  A brutal Hauska foot was the only reason they didn't lose that.  So after all the blah blah blah, I think it is say to say that I won't touch that game with a 10 foot pole.  Gun to my head, I would take the Vikes even though I normally side with the home doggies on games like this when I am undecided.  Also, like last week with Miami, my work pool has 31 out of 33 picks for Minny at -3 with 8 best bets also on Minny. I've said a million times that I'm not an advocate in any way towards fading the public(tiny piece of the puzzle, imo), but those guys in my pools are  in games with that kind of majority.  So Mac, when it's all said and done, I have positively no fucking idea who is gonna win this game.  You have any leans?