NFL Week 1 - Early Leans & Some Thoughts

A lot can happen between now, so I'm only going by the current state of each team (health, depth, word around camp, etc...). These are games I wouldn't lay any bets on at all, but are simply games I see on the board and have an initial reaction to. Some games are easier decisions for me even this early. Games such as Dolphins/Chargers, Jaguars/Colts, 

Lions vs Chiefs -- Chiefs -7

I expect a strong season from the Lions, but I think it's going to take some time for them to gain traction. Having Jameson Williams back from suspension after week 6 will. The Chiefs do not have to prove anything, and they'll start the season as the well-oiled machine they already are. I'm hearing good things about Skyy Moore.

Panthers vs Falcons -- Panthers +3

Texans vs Ravens -- Ravens -10

Jaguars vs Colts -- Jaguars -3.5

That Jonathan Taylor-Jim Irsay fiasco isn't doing the team any favors. I like their head coach (Steichen), but he's going to need to find his way in his first season as HC. I wonder what the record is for rooking QBs starting their first game.

Buccaneers vs Vikings -- Vikings -6.5

Titans vs Saints -- Titans +3

49ers vs Steelers -- 49ers -3.5

Cardinals vs Commanders -- Commanders -6.5

Packers vs Bears -- Packers +2.5  (will buy the hook when it comes out)

Jordan Love is looking good in camp. This is just a hunch, and I could change my mind. Not sold on Fields, but I'm sold on the Bears backfield situation.

Raiders vs Broncos -- Broncos -3.5

Dolphins vs Chargers -- Chargers ML (-135)

I think they win by more than the spread of -1.5, but if i'm paying .25 more juice I'll do it and increase my bet). Chargers beat the Dolphins handily last year, and the team was short-handed while doing that. J.C. Jackson is practicing in camp, and the Dolphins won't have Jalen Ramsey. Having a health

Dolphin fans, tell me more of what you see from your perspective.

Eagles vs Patriots -- Patriots +5.5

Seahawks vs Rams -- Seahawks -5.5

Cowboys vs Giants -- Cowboys -3.5

Jets vs Bills -- Jets +1.5 

This is probably a game I wouldn't bet. I'd love to watch it though, as it should be a great NFC North battle.

I think there may be a tank for Caleb Williams scenario going on midway through the season. I could see both the Rams and Raiders making a hard push for the USC product.

Lions vs Chiefs

You said that it will take time for the Lions? That time has all ready come when they went 8-2 in their last 10 games of the season. One of the two losses were to the Bills, where they were tied with 23 seconds left.

The Lions were the most dangerous team to not make the playoffs last year. No one would of wanted to play them.

Packers vs Bears

You got the Colts losing to the Jags with the question of "I wonder what the rookie qb record is for their first start?"

I know Jordan Love isn't a rookie, but this is kind of "that" spot. He has only 83 attempts in his career, and otr vs a divisional rival.

The Bears have added some serious talent to the roster.

LOVE your Patriots +5.5 pick 

The spread kind of says it all here.

Mac Jones has the 2nd highest completion % of any qb, all time, in their first 2 seasons in the nfl. A dude recruited by Saban, and drafted by Belichick can't be a bum. And I love that he motherfucked his OC and coaches constantly last year. And he was pissed all the time. He has the fire. 

Last year Matt Patricia was their OC, he was semi retarded. The Patriots still managed to be 17th in scoring. There is no chance this offense stays the same or gets worse with Bill O'brien. The arrow can only go up, if only slightly. 

I love that the Patriots are predicted to finish last in the afc east. Belichick is gonna show everyone how to fuck off imo.

The Pats will always control the clock, play field position, and make the right decisions on the field. They will be dogs almost every game. I think they'll be a covering machine.

Good Luck this season Iconn 

Opening day games can be very tricky, players are hyped, some teams will need a couple games to work out kinks.Really no pressure to speak off as far as the players and teams go.That will start building the next week. I've always thought the home teams hfa is slightly stronger on opening day.   iCon

@Biscuiteater1

 The box crew better start sharpening pencils, crossing t's and dotting i's, if you know what I mean ole boy

@undermysac

 "Lions vs Chiefs - You said that it will take time for the Lions? That time has all ready come when they went 8-2 in their last 10 games of the season. One of the two losses were to the Bills, where they were tied with 23 seconds left. The Lions were the most dangerous team to not make the playoffs last year. No one would of wanted to play them."

Touche'. I feel you on this, Sac. My first impulse was to pick the Lions because of that. Their most impressive win during that stretch was against the Jags, imo. They hammered them. I'm also considering the fact that they added Jahmyr Gibbs.

The thing is, the Lions aren't facing any old team. Andy Reid has a whole off-season to plan for this game. For the same reasons you tout Bill Bellichick, I tout Andy Reid. The Chiefs just have to beat the Lions by a touchdown. I think they can do this. I would most likely bet this if it was on the board, and wouldn't hate losing that bet (given my allegiances to the Chiefs' division rival). 

H2H:  I know you'll consider Goff's one game against the Chiefs, in which he was playing for the Rams at the time. If I recall correctly, the Chiefs got somewhat hosed when they had to move the game from Mexico City to the Coliseum in L.A. They lost an even playing field at the last moment, and the Rams gave away a lot of free tickets to LA residents to help fill the stadium on short notice. It was also a high scoring game. The Chiefs fan base travels well, and instead of travelling to Mexico City, most fans couldn't pivot to travels to LA on short notice. Had it been in LA all along you would've seen a sea of red. (Best thing that could've happened to the Rams.)  I don't want to spend too much time on this, so let's just leave this viewing angle alone for now. 

You brought up a good point. I knew they were hot down the stretch, but I wasn't paying attention to the actual numbers and who they beat. If the Lions can beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead, in the home opener, I'll deem them a serious contender for a Super Bowl. They've got the stud WR (St. Brown; eventually Williams), a QB playing at his peak, and I'll assume Gibbs is for real. 

@undermysac

"Packers vs Bears - You got the Colts losing to the Jags with the question of "I wonder what the rookie qb record is for their first start?" I know Jordan Love isn't a rookie, but this is kind of "that" spot. He has only 83 attempts in his career, and otr vs a divisional rival. The Bears have added some serious talent to the roster."

I look at things differently when it's a 1st rd QB who has sat behind an accomplished veteran QB. You can look to Patrick Mahomes (Alex Smith), Eli Manning (Warner), Aaron Rodgers (Favre), Carson Palmer (Kitna) and Philip Rivers (Brees). Even Goff sat on the bench for, what, 9 games in his rookie season?  If you extend it beyond 1st round picks, but QBs who eventually became successful -- Dak Prescott (Romo) and Tom Brady (Drew Bledsoe). Those are just the QBs that come immediately to mind. When you sit and practice with those veterans, you get to see how they prepare and how they respond to adversity on the gridiron. If you're lucky, you get to pick their brains a little. I don't know how much Love was able to glean from Rodgers, but I do know that Love is establishing a pretty good chemistry with Christian Watson.

Even if Love were to struggle a little, he gets the luxury of leaning on a great ground game, now that Jones and Dillon are back. He's going to be blessed with everything a 1st time starting QB needs to succeed -- a top 6 or 7 offensive line, a good running game, and two well-touted TEs, which are undoubtedly one of the best safety blankets a young QB can have. (The Packers drafted Musgrave and Kraft on Day 2 of the draft.)

The Bears have a fair-to-middling offensive line (ranking around 16th).

The Packers are ranked better along the front 7 on defense, as well.

I usually look up PFF or Sharp Football Analysis (Warren Sharp) for rankings such as these.

I have a feeling you follow the Bears more closely than I, and because of that you have a better pulse on the NFC North's landscape than I. So I wouldn't mind deferring to what your thoughts are on this game. I'll tell you what though, I'm excited to see what Fields can do with both DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney together. I mean, I think he's likely to get better this year. And I'm also curious to see how Khalil does with a full workload. I thought he looked better than Montgomery.

@undermysac

"LOVE your Patriots +5.5 pick  The spread kind of says it all here. Mac Jones has the 2nd highest completion % of any qb, all time, in their first 2 seasons in the nfl. A dude recruited by Saban, and drafted by Belichick can't be a bum. And I love that he motherfucked his OC and coaches constantly last year. And he was pissed all the time. He has the fire.  Last year Matt Patricia was their OC, he was semi retarded. The Patriots still managed to be 17th in scoring. There is no chance this offense stays the same or gets worse with Bill O'brien. The arrow can only go up, if only slightly. I love that the Patriots are predicted to finish last in the afc east. Belichick is gonna show everyone how to fuck off imo. The Pats will always control the clock, play field position, and make the right decisions on the field. They will be dogs almost every game. I think they'll be a covering machine."

I'm glad we can agree on this one. And lol @ the Matt Patricia comment. He's definitely a buffoon. As phenomenal of a coach BB is, I think he is still trying to prove that his success with Brady wasn't all Brady. Brady already won one in Tampa Bay w/out Bellichick. Can BB win one without Brady?

I can't read lines the way you do, so that gives me more confidence in this pick.

"Good Luck this season Iconn "

You too amigo. I'll try to stop by and visit the sausage fest that is the Box often. 

I tend to agree with you there. I don't really know if I'll be placing any pre-game bets on Week 1. I might wait to place a live bet or two, but if I can get some good insight on camp showings from some of these teams, I might bet just for the action.  #degen

Good luck with your bets... see you in the Box. 

good lord I am ready for some football yo

@iConsciousness

What I can tell from the off season moves that the Bears have made, I have to give GM Ryan Poles an A, as of now. He tore everything down to the foundation, and has acquired some good dudes. All while still being under the cap further than any other team.

Bears notable additions and pff grades from last year:

LB T.J. Edwards 84.8

LB Tremaine Edmunds 79.0

DE DeMarcus Walker 72.8

DT Andrew Billings 76.4

WR DJ Moore 73.9

OL Nate Davis 70.6

I'm not joking when I say this, but the Bears could easily have the best set of linebackers in the league. Strong Side LB is Jack Sanborn, he was a tackling machine last year playing behind a terrible D line. More importantly, he went undrafted. And so did T.J. Edwards. And they have something in common, which is they were teammates at Wisconsin. Good friends and they will be playing with the proverbial "chip on their shoulder".

The addition of T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds was tremendous in this era of "passing" IMO. Both of them grade high in pass coverage. Just ask any Eagles or Bills fans. Both of these guys will remain on the field in the Nickel package where the league(as a whole) spends more than 50% of their personal in Nickel. 

The Bears D Line was atrocious last year. I don't know any stats or #'s, but my eyes can assure you that they were the worst. They're looking for the addition of Andrew Billings to help stuff the run and keep blockers off their LB's. Billings played only 12 games with the Raiders last year so he needs to maintain his health.

Demarcus Walker isn't known as a feared pass rusher in the league, but he's a hell of an upgrade from who they were trotting out there last year. He had 7 sacks in 13 games for the Titans last year. Again, health. 

Just yesterday the Bears kicked the tires on Yannick Ngakoue. 9.5 sacks in 13 games for the Colts last year. He never played for Eberflus, but came from the same system they are running there since Eberflus left the Colts. Not sure if he will be a 3rd down specialist or every down DE.

The secondary has a real high ceiling. They were the youngest in the league last year. For the lack of pressure the Bears had on opposing qb's, they held coverage for long periods of time. I'm hearing nothing but good stuff about CB Tyrique Stevenson drafted out of Miami. We'll see, playing CB in the NFL as a rookie is a tough gig.

I won't take as much time on the offense. Here are some 40 yd dash times of the Bears positional players:

QB Fields 4.42

RB Herbert 4.40

WR Moore 4.42

WR Mooney 4.38

WR V. Jones 4.31

WR Claypool 4.42

WR T. Scott 4.39

Speed kills.

We'll see how effectively the o line can block this year. They've upgraded with signing guard Nate Davis.

I agree with you that Khalil Herbert looked better than David Montgomery last year. DM was a step slower last year as he was banged up the whole year, but played through shit. Look out for that rookie from Texas who played 2nd fiddle to you know who. He has nearly no miles on his legs in 4 years of college football. That's rare.

A couple caveats to this team:

Most teams don't use a fullback. The Bears do in certain formations, and Khari Blasingame is the best around.

For their week 1 matchup vs GB, it could help that they've signed TE's Robert Tonyan(#2) and Mercedes Lewis(#3). Both dudes played for GB and under Matt LaFleur.

My breakout player: Velus Jones. Drafted last year out of Tennessee. Dude is quick and fast. Can be really special returning kicks, as a slot wr,  RB/motion guy. Dude had fumble problems last year that put him on the bench. Needs to learn the playbook better than last year. Just the thought of him and Justin Fields on the field at the same time with their running abilities will be a problem for a defense. 

Matt Eberflus is a defensive minded coach. Most people wouldn't think that because all they know is what they saw last year. And how often does the nfl look the same year in year out?

I'm telling you that last year was a dump off, traded Roquon, youngest secondary, worst d line, only one decent LB. He couldn't do anything with that D and he knew it. I think he's fine with what happened last year.

@undermysac

 Damn, that's a lot of insight. Thanks for that. I'm reading this while waiting for a haircut, so I'll inevitably come back and let it sink in more.

Based on what you've just explained, and the addition of Yannick (looks like he's just about to sign), the Bears defense is going to be sick.

By the way, looking forward to when your Bears visit SoFi against the Chargers this year. I should be at that game. Staley vs the team he grew his NFL coaching career in. It's obviously not the same makeup, but with Mack on the Chargers, there's going to be some additional storylines. A battle of two defensive minded head coaches should be the main one.

I wonder what the record is for rooking QBs starting their first game.

So Richardson is starting for the Colts in week one?

@JWD1984

 Just going off tht assumption that he will. He's getting all the starter reps in training camp. Of course that could change. But Irsay is lobbying for him to start, from what I read. Owners usually get their way.

Good thoughts bro, gl this season. I like most of these leans 

@iConsciousness

 Every year my friends and I do a destination game. Sofi was 2nd on the list. We are going to Kansas City this year, can't wait.

Much respect for that organization, Reed and Mahomes. 

And that BBQ better be good as folks say 

Falcons vs Panthers is an interesting week 1 game to me, and I will leave it at that. 

who says chiefs don't have anything to prove?

@iConsciousness

BOL with your picks ...my strongest play in week #1 is Pittsburgh +3 1/2 as I don't see the 49ers as a powerhouse. Purdy will have a tough challenge as the revamped Steelers' D should give him fits. The Steelers O has a lot more weapons and they have deeper reserves in both trenches.

Pickett matured late in the season and he did away with the turnovers...these are not last year's inept Steelers as they had a great draft and have signed quality free agents. GM Omar Khan is focused on making the Steelers a contender again. 

@undermysac

 Khari Blasingame is a beast and the 2nd best FB in the league behind Patrick Ricard. 

Fixed it for ya Sac. 

'preciate it. It's obviously too early to tell, but I like poking around on Twitter/X and seeing the landscape.

For example, right now the Raiders look like garbage (as far as their QB situation goes), but the Broncos have their own issues. Not sure how to even approach that game, really.

Good luck heading into the season, DK. 

There's a difference between having a lot to play for and having anything to prove. They've already proven they're a top echelon team, and a perennial favorite. They've already won 2 Super Bowls in the Reid/Mahomes era.

What they have to play for is to become the next Patriots-type dynasty.

@iConsciousness

 Bears fans always travel well. Last year in Dallas it felt as if we were nearly 50% of that stadium. 

Granted the Bears almost always get smashed, the fans are still loyal. 

Some more off season spat:

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/unexpected-standout-of-bears-training-camp-andrew-billings/?amp