Posted:
#1
Upsetting defeat with the Vikings on Thursday. Let's see if we can get back on track this Sunday. Here's what i'll be playing with my already posted Dolphins play.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Not much to say on this one except that TEN is vastly overvalued in this one. Titans just gave up 35 points to the Bills and needed a lot of help from PIT losing half their roster to win the game. Great value with the better team getting 3.5 points here.
For the first time all season, the Colts will be playing with their full defense healthy and I like what Andrew Luck has shown in his first year. Titans after winning two games as an underdog, now play as a favorite. Tough swing for an unproven team.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles could be one of the best teams in the league if they didn't have a QB that turned the ball over 27.3 times a game. With two weeks off, you can bet that Andy Reid who is 13-0 all time off a bye will be planting ball security in Vick's head day after day.
Think about this, if the Falcons didn't score on that 99 yard drive at the end of the game to beat the Panthers or get a pick 6 late to beat the Raiders, this spread would be AT-LEAST -3.5 in favor of the Eagles. Falcons in my eyes are a bit overrated due to their 6-0 impressive, but fluky start. I see tons of line value getting the Eagles at under a field goal.
Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Another team that is undervalued. Washington is on the verge of becoming a threat in the NFC East come next year. Griffin has been a stud and Mike Shanahan has really used him well. If only their key defenders didn't go out for the year earlier on they would already be a threat in the division.
PIT just beat a crappy Bengals team who was playing with their 3rd string center and lost to the Titans the week before. Steelers will be alright later in the year, but they are too unhealthy (like always) to be laying this many points against an up and coming team. Griffin already has success on the road this year winning in NO and almost winning in NYG, I like his chances against a wobbled PIT team.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
I'm really high on the Bears this year. There defense is as elite as it gets and the offense got a real deep threat for Cutler to throw to in Brandon Marshall. That being said, I don't like them this week. The Bears defense is not the type you'd want to have when facing a mobile QB. Want proof?
Last year in Cam Newton's rookie year, Cam threw for 374 yards and ran for an additional 35 yards in a 29-34 loss to the Bears. The Bears had to do things they aren't used to and not accustom to in order to contain Newton. To add to that, the Panthers had 24 first downs and ran 72 total plays to Chicago's 15 first downs and 49 total plays and actually outgained the Bears by 230+ total yards. The only real reason the Bears won that game is thanks to a punt return TD, a defensive pick 6, and 120 kickoff return yards. I think the Panthers will play special teams a bit better this time around and keep this within the number.
There's also the chance that Cutler won't be 100% with his bruised ribs.
Teams that allow 7 or less points at home are 4-15 (21%) ATS the past 5 years if playing at home again the following sunday.
Colts +3.5 4 units
Redskins +4.5 3 units
Eagles -2.5 1 unit
Panthers +7.5 2 units
Colts +10.5 / Redskins + 11.5 5 units
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Not much to say on this one except that TEN is vastly overvalued in this one. Titans just gave up 35 points to the Bills and needed a lot of help from PIT losing half their roster to win the game. Great value with the better team getting 3.5 points here.
For the first time all season, the Colts will be playing with their full defense healthy and I like what Andrew Luck has shown in his first year. Titans after winning two games as an underdog, now play as a favorite. Tough swing for an unproven team.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles could be one of the best teams in the league if they didn't have a QB that turned the ball over 27.3 times a game. With two weeks off, you can bet that Andy Reid who is 13-0 all time off a bye will be planting ball security in Vick's head day after day.
Think about this, if the Falcons didn't score on that 99 yard drive at the end of the game to beat the Panthers or get a pick 6 late to beat the Raiders, this spread would be AT-LEAST -3.5 in favor of the Eagles. Falcons in my eyes are a bit overrated due to their 6-0 impressive, but fluky start. I see tons of line value getting the Eagles at under a field goal.
Washington Redskins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Another team that is undervalued. Washington is on the verge of becoming a threat in the NFC East come next year. Griffin has been a stud and Mike Shanahan has really used him well. If only their key defenders didn't go out for the year earlier on they would already be a threat in the division.
PIT just beat a crappy Bengals team who was playing with their 3rd string center and lost to the Titans the week before. Steelers will be alright later in the year, but they are too unhealthy (like always) to be laying this many points against an up and coming team. Griffin already has success on the road this year winning in NO and almost winning in NYG, I like his chances against a wobbled PIT team.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
I'm really high on the Bears this year. There defense is as elite as it gets and the offense got a real deep threat for Cutler to throw to in Brandon Marshall. That being said, I don't like them this week. The Bears defense is not the type you'd want to have when facing a mobile QB. Want proof?
Last year in Cam Newton's rookie year, Cam threw for 374 yards and ran for an additional 35 yards in a 29-34 loss to the Bears. The Bears had to do things they aren't used to and not accustom to in order to contain Newton. To add to that, the Panthers had 24 first downs and ran 72 total plays to Chicago's 15 first downs and 49 total plays and actually outgained the Bears by 230+ total yards. The only real reason the Bears won that game is thanks to a punt return TD, a defensive pick 6, and 120 kickoff return yards. I think the Panthers will play special teams a bit better this time around and keep this within the number.
There's also the chance that Cutler won't be 100% with his bruised ribs.
Teams that allow 7 or less points at home are 4-15 (21%) ATS the past 5 years if playing at home again the following sunday.
Colts +3.5 4 units
Redskins +4.5 3 units
Eagles -2.5 1 unit
Panthers +7.5 2 units
Colts +10.5 / Redskins + 11.5 5 units
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