Posted:
#26
totally agree with the last post it hurts my future play big time! tough luck
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NFL Playoff Thread....
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:
In this case IMO it goes under the heading " the times they are a changing".. With missed extra points now and the fact Pitt LOVES to go for two at odd times this year makes the 1.5 a very very good investment IMO.. Those stats will start to change now with the new extra point rules.. 2.5 is huge nowadays.. especially when Pitt is involved..
Nice post... Your points have merit, it's easy for me to forget about the PAT rule change. I often just blast away on +ML out of habit instead of considering taking 1/2 to 2 1/2 points. In this case IMO it goes under the heading " the times they are a changing".. With missed extra points now and the fact Pitt LOVES to go for two at odd times this year makes the 1.5 a very very good investment IMO.. Those stats will start to change now with the new extra point rules.. 2.5 is huge nowadays.. especially when Pitt is involved..
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Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
Vanzack, thanks for all the work during the season. Always a good read! On those two plays as well today.
One thing: I see you are taking +1.5 with the Bengals. Spreads from +1 to +2.5 come into play just 6% of the time. So statistically, in 94/100 games you don't need these points. It's money left on the table in the long run, it's more profitable to take the ML from +100 to +130.
Maybe you already knew it and you have some other reasons to take +1.5. Just a heads-up.
BOL during the playoffs
Vanzack, thanks for all the work during the season. Always a good read! On those two plays as well today.
One thing: I see you are taking +1.5 with the Bengals. Spreads from +1 to +2.5 come into play just 6% of the time. So statistically, in 94/100 games you don't need these points. It's money left on the table in the long run, it's more profitable to take the ML from +100 to +130.
Maybe you already knew it and you have some other reasons to take +1.5. Just a heads-up.
BOL during the playoffs
Crazy that it happened in this game.
Doesnt make what you said wrong - just crazy luck.
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
even if i didn't bet or like the nfl anymore, i think i'd watch just to see how stupid some of these teams and coaches are. that was an amazing performance by cincy.
lewis is now 0-7 in the playoffs, to no one's surprise.
even if i didn't bet or like the nfl anymore, i think i'd watch just to see how stupid some of these teams and coaches are. that was an amazing performance by cincy.
lewis is now 0-7 in the playoffs, to no one's surprise.
Really - it had to be 99% with 1:27 on the +25 (from memory) up by 1.
I was actually thinking that Pitt might let them score a TD there. The thought crossed my mind.
I am also not sure of the rationale to go for 2 up 15-0 by pitt that late in the game. In the end - it wouldnt have mattered because Cincy would have kicked the EP to make it 17-16, but I dont see the logic there either.
Total coinflip game.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:
In this case IMO it goes under the heading " the times they are a changing".. With missed extra points now and the fact Pitt LOVES to go for two at odd times this year makes the 1.5 a very very good investment IMO.. Those stats will start to change now with the new extra point rules.. 2.5 is huge nowadays.. especially when Pitt is involved..
"the times they are a changing" In this case IMO it goes under the heading " the times they are a changing".. With missed extra points now and the fact Pitt LOVES to go for two at odd times this year makes the 1.5 a very very good investment IMO.. Those stats will start to change now with the new extra point rules.. 2.5 is huge nowadays.. especially when Pitt is involved..
... Be careful with the axe Eugene.
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Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Really - it had to be 99% with 1:27 on the +25 (from memory) up by 1.
I was actually thinking that Pitt might let them score a TD there. The thought crossed my mind.
I am also not sure of the rationale to go for 2 up 15-0 by pitt that late in the game. In the end - it wouldnt have mattered because Cincy would have kicked the EP to make it 17-16, but I dont see the logic there either.
Total coinflip game.
I would think more than 99%. run the ball 3 times, burn their times out. if you make a FD (and Hill had gotten a nice gain so it was a good possibility), game is over. If not, kick the FG with less than a minute, go up by 4. they need a need a TD. Assuming a decent kick a low probability. Best case scenario they get to 50 for a Hail Mary chance.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Really - it had to be 99% with 1:27 on the +25 (from memory) up by 1.
I was actually thinking that Pitt might let them score a TD there. The thought crossed my mind.
I am also not sure of the rationale to go for 2 up 15-0 by pitt that late in the game. In the end - it wouldnt have mattered because Cincy would have kicked the EP to make it 17-16, but I dont see the logic there either.
Total coinflip game.
It slipped my mind that letting Cincy score was an option. As far as Pitt going for 2, they've done that all year in random situations. I have that in my notes along with tidbits like Seattle and Denver having horrible clock management at end of games.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:
I would think more than 99%. run the ball 3 times, burn their times out. if you make a FD (and Hill had gotten a nice gain so it was a good possibility), game is over. If not, kick the FG with less than a minute, go up by 4. they need a need a TD. Assuming a decent kick a low probability. Best case scenario they get to 50 for a Hail Mary chance.
I would think more than 99%. run the ball 3 times, burn their times out. if you make a FD (and Hill had gotten a nice gain so it was a good possibility), game is over. If not, kick the FG with less than a minute, go up by 4. they need a need a TD. Assuming a decent kick a low probability. Best case scenario they get to 50 for a Hail Mary chance.
I don't think so. If Pitt held and Cinc kicked FG, Pitt would have had about 1:15 left.
A few weeks ago St Louis was -2600 vs Tampa live bet in this scenario:
Up 8 with 1:34 left
Tampa about to onside kick.
Tampa had no timeouts.
Granted true probability doesn't directly correlate to live odds, but to be 99% would have to be a lot less time and Cincy up more than 1
Heck Jeremy Hill has fumbled 9 times his last 450 attempts
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Posted:
#42
I absolutely love the Skins...they have played 10 times better than GB over the last 6 weeks and when you look at that for teams like the NY Giants, the SF Giants and so on, it's huge...Jordan Reed is literally unstoppable, Cousins is clutch and fearless and the Packers don't even deep down believe in themselves...WR's can't beat anyone deep, line can't hold up, even Rodgers has looked shaky
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Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by tsw:
I don't think so. If Pitt held and Cinc kicked FG, Pitt would have had about 1:15 left.
A few weeks ago St Louis was -2600 vs Tampa live bet in this scenario:
Up 8 with 1:34 left
Tampa about to onside kick.
Tampa had no timeouts.
Granted true probability doesn't directly correlate to live odds, but to be 99% would have to be a lot less time and Cincy up more than 1
Heck Jeremy Hill has fumbled 9 times his last 450 attempts
If Hill did not fumble that time, most likely Cin will either get a first down and the game will be over then. If the coach is smart, he would also instruct his players to fall down after they get the first down.
The main thing was to protect the ball and they did not do that.
For the last drive Pitt has to use all the time outs, with all the penalty to get a FG. If Cin was able to protect the ball and also go for 4th down there. Pitt would only have 1:15 min left to travel 65 yards without any timeout - If I am the coach, I will not elect to kick the FG with they way my defense is playing.
Cin is messing is up big time.
I am sick and tired to see all the posting here on how they F*CK it up.
On to the next game.
Every day out of the red is a big win.
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
As much as it pains me to admit it...
As much as it pains me to admit it...
I do like Chris Collinsworth as an announcer.
He's always been my favorite. Far more esoteric than most, which is why many viewers don't like him. They'd prefer the Boom! Bang! guttural ramblings of John Madden. The fact ABC once used comedian Dennis Miller in the booth shows you what they think of their target audience.
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