This play is not based on any numbers or stats or matchups because no matter how you look at it Denver is the better team. This is purely a situational play.
Obviously I’m invested in the Broncos and many would say a home game off a bye and rolling is a good spot to be in but I disagree. I’m much more worried about this game than a potential Patriots matchup next week. Every season there are 1 or 2 teams you look at and say wow the bye week really hurt them. I believe that team is Denver this year. They have won 11 games in a row. They won their last 4 games by almost 21 PPG. They were healthy and clicking on all cylinders. The last thing this team needed was a bye week to disrupt their rhythm because history suggests it will be hard to get back. Since 1990 teams that entered the playoffs on 8+ game winning streaks and had a bye week managed to go a woeful 3-16 ATS the rest of the way when laying a FG or more. Hitting their highpoint too early perhaps?
Even though they have Manning and he should keep them sharp through the bye, the fact is that 4 times in his career Manning has had a 1st round bye and in those games his teams are 1-3 SU & ATS and his teams have put up the following point totals:
20: On a team that averaged 26.0 PPG
24: On a team that averaged 28.1 PPG
18: On a team that averaged 27.4 PPG
16: On a team that averaged 26.4 PPG
Another Denver element here is pressure. They have the Elway, Fox, Manning triumvirate at the top but the rest of the roster is relatively young and hasn’t had to deal with real playoff pressure and expectations. I know they played two playoff games last year but that was with Tebow and as huge dogs they weren’t expected to do diddly squat. This time around everyone is penciling them in for the AFC Championship game showdown with New England.
On the other side of the coin are the Ravens. While they may be down a few notches they certainly don’t have any pressure on them. They’ve also got veterans across the board and have the most playoff experience in the NFL. It’s hard to see them being intimidated by this environment especially against a team that may play a little tight. I see a lot of people saying they didn’t play well last week against a far worse team. The reality is these aren’t robots and teams don’t play the same every week and good teams rarely play bad for two weeks in a row. I think it’s more likely they play well this week as opposed to playing the same way as they did against Indy.
I think this is going to be a lot closer than people think.
Andar, I generally try picking the winner in the playoffs and not pay attention to the spreads (last week 4-0) but I tend to agree with you on your observation. What concerns me most about the New England and Denver spots is both of those teams played and handled their current opponent rather easily late in the season. being that both New England and Denver covered this weeks posted number in those games makes me want to lean to the dog. Who knows maybe Baltimore is the winner in this game given Peyton's playoff record. GL
My line is Denver -9.02
But I have a bounce factor fade and a power ratings fade on Denver, they are playing on an unsustainable level.
If Denver makes the SB which they very well could, I see them going 1-1 ATS.
If they cover this week I'd have a best bet fade ATS in the AFC championship game on Denver.....................................
I've got an account at a square shop and they've hung an interesting halftime line for this game:
BALT +7 -125
Read on! I'm trying to build an argument for a halftime bet on the Ravens.
The BRONCOS offense averages 7.3 points ppg more in the second half than the first half.
The RAVENS veteran defense travels well allowing 10.8 ppg on the road in the first half.
BRONCOS halftime scores against teams that were better than .500 at the time of their match:
ATL 7-20
TEX 11-21
SDG 0-24
TBY 7-10
BAL 17-0
During Harbaugh's tenure BALTIMORE has played 5 teams in the playoffs that they lost to in the regular season and they were ATS 2-3 but if you can get 10 points you would have covered 4 of those games because they W by 3, L by 9, W by 19, L by 17 and L by 7
Other observations
Harbaugh has been the coach of BALTIMORE since 2008 and in that span they have played 10 games and in only one of those games have they lost by more than 9 points.
Flacco has a ton of playoff experience and usually plays well in these spots - remember last year he outplayed Brady on the road.
Ray Lewis and a veteran defense that was embarrassed in the first match.
Denver is a 2nd half team and the Fox's knows it because during the current win streak they have always deferred if they win the coin toss - problem is the other teams know this and they will defer if they win the toin coss, but it gives you a bit of insight into their mindset.
The schedule makers did the Ravens no favors when the scheduled them to play on a short week vs a well rested, well coached team.
Hmmmm .... this is curious. Why would my book hang identical halftime lines for these games? New England is a more balanced team performing equally well in the second and first half of games, but as for Denver ...
HOUS +7 -125
BALT +7 -125
DimnDimn,
Not sure to what you refer when you discuss
"my wishful predictions" but I will go on record right now and say that this game will be the most lopsided of the weekend with NE over HOU being a real close runner-up.
If Peyton's #'s are down, it will not matter because they will pound the run game and he only had 204 yards because they were up 31-3 and the running game took over..why waste gas?
Talk about cold weather, np-again he wore a glove vs. CLE and KC and posted 70 % and 78 % completion % respectively.
BAL won very ugly vs. INDY if you watched the game and the mistakes made will be most costly against Denver's opportunistic "D".
BAL has fallen a major grade in their overrall team ability and anyone who doesnt see it is a BAL homer or in denial...
BECAUSE THEY ARE SALIVATING OVER ALMOST 10 PTS.
DEN by 13-17 pts.
(33)34-20 or 34-17
LOVE THE OVER
Just my humble .02
Established in 1995,
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