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#1
YTD: 53-40 ATS
Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -3.22 units
Teaser: San Francisco +3 & New England -2.5
Probably taking the easy way out on this one, and yes I’m teasing through zero, but I like this play quite a bit. It’s a small sample but the lines have been tight so far this postseason with 6 of the 8 games falling within 7.5 or less ATS.
SF/ATL – First of all I don’t think there’s any question this line is inflated. Before last week this line was probably a pk at worst maybe even Atlanta laying 1. There is also a good chance San Fran doesn’t play as well as they did last week because as I say often; teams rarely play as good or as bad as they did the week before. Having said that the Niners are flat out the better team. You could argue Kaepernick on the road could make mistakes, or if he’s in a hole there could be
issues but other than that SF is just better.
The overall pass offenses are actually about equal, all things considered. Atlanta has more talent but the Niners have been very effective. I don’t think there’s any question San Fran is much better running the ball. But the real difference here is defensively. It isn’t even close. The Niners have perhaps the best defense in the league. They are 3rd in YPP while the Falcons are 29th. On 3rd down SF is 4th while ATL is 26th. The Falcons haven’t been able to get pressure all year as they rank 28th in sack percentage and their best pass rusher missed most of last week’s game and could be out this week. The Niners don’t possess a fraudulent defense that has
piled up numbers against weak teams either. They have played some big time pocket passing QB’s that are roughly on the same level as Matt Ryan this season in Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Those 4 guys averaged a 97.6 QB rating this season but against San Fran they only had a collective 83.6 rating. That’s about the same rating as Ryan Fitzpatrick so it’s quite clear the San Fran defense is doing great work against elite caliber opposition. I wouldn’t put much into Atlanta’s new found run game either. Seattle had a weak run defense that had fallen off the cliff in the 2nd half of the year but the Niners possess one of the best run stopping units in the league and they are coming off a sub par game but their standards, it’s unlikely they play bad run D two weeks in a row.
Except for the Cowboys in Week 2 of last season the teams that San Francisco has lost to under Harbaugh all play a similar style in that they are big on the defensive line and known to be physical teams. The Giants (2x), Ravens, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, and Seahawks are teams that IMO are vastly different from the softer style that Atlanta plays. The soft teams are ones the Niners match up well against.
The Falcons had the ideal situation last week and they still were outplayed by a team that plays San Fran’s style but isn’t as good as San Fran. It’s just a bad matchup any way you look at it for an Atlanta team that isn’t that great to begin with. The scenario here is similar to the NFC title game two years ago. Green Bay was off a huge win that inflated the number but they were simply better than a fraudulent Bears team. The game was close and I expect this one to be as well but at the end of the day the better team won. If Atlanta does play their asses off and pull out a win it’s probably not going to be more than 3. The Niners have only lost 4 times under Harbaugh by more than 3 points and two of those games (@BAL and @SEA this year) were terrible spots.
Season Win Totals: 4-2 ATS
Futures: -3.22 units
Teaser: San Francisco +3 & New England -2.5
Probably taking the easy way out on this one, and yes I’m teasing through zero, but I like this play quite a bit. It’s a small sample but the lines have been tight so far this postseason with 6 of the 8 games falling within 7.5 or less ATS.
SF/ATL – First of all I don’t think there’s any question this line is inflated. Before last week this line was probably a pk at worst maybe even Atlanta laying 1. There is also a good chance San Fran doesn’t play as well as they did last week because as I say often; teams rarely play as good or as bad as they did the week before. Having said that the Niners are flat out the better team. You could argue Kaepernick on the road could make mistakes, or if he’s in a hole there could be
issues but other than that SF is just better.
The overall pass offenses are actually about equal, all things considered. Atlanta has more talent but the Niners have been very effective. I don’t think there’s any question San Fran is much better running the ball. But the real difference here is defensively. It isn’t even close. The Niners have perhaps the best defense in the league. They are 3rd in YPP while the Falcons are 29th. On 3rd down SF is 4th while ATL is 26th. The Falcons haven’t been able to get pressure all year as they rank 28th in sack percentage and their best pass rusher missed most of last week’s game and could be out this week. The Niners don’t possess a fraudulent defense that has
piled up numbers against weak teams either. They have played some big time pocket passing QB’s that are roughly on the same level as Matt Ryan this season in Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Those 4 guys averaged a 97.6 QB rating this season but against San Fran they only had a collective 83.6 rating. That’s about the same rating as Ryan Fitzpatrick so it’s quite clear the San Fran defense is doing great work against elite caliber opposition. I wouldn’t put much into Atlanta’s new found run game either. Seattle had a weak run defense that had fallen off the cliff in the 2nd half of the year but the Niners possess one of the best run stopping units in the league and they are coming off a sub par game but their standards, it’s unlikely they play bad run D two weeks in a row.
Except for the Cowboys in Week 2 of last season the teams that San Francisco has lost to under Harbaugh all play a similar style in that they are big on the defensive line and known to be physical teams. The Giants (2x), Ravens, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, and Seahawks are teams that IMO are vastly different from the softer style that Atlanta plays. The soft teams are ones the Niners match up well against.
The Falcons had the ideal situation last week and they still were outplayed by a team that plays San Fran’s style but isn’t as good as San Fran. It’s just a bad matchup any way you look at it for an Atlanta team that isn’t that great to begin with. The scenario here is similar to the NFC title game two years ago. Green Bay was off a huge win that inflated the number but they were simply better than a fraudulent Bears team. The game was close and I expect this one to be as well but at the end of the day the better team won. If Atlanta does play their asses off and pull out a win it’s probably not going to be more than 3. The Niners have only lost 4 times under Harbaugh by more than 3 points and two of those games (@BAL and @SEA this year) were terrible spots.
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