NFL 2023

Steelers -2.5 (-115) 1 unit 

I did play Pittsburgh on a teaser, but i put a unit on them as well. Great showing for Levis last week against the falcons who don’t have much of a pass rush. Think things will be a little different this time around in Pittsburgh against a solid pass rush (TJ Watt) and a defense that thrives on takeaways. Wouldn’t be surprising to see a couple of those in Levis’ first road start in a hostile environment. Pickett has also said he will play. Levis will have to prove to me he can overcome a primetime road environment. Meanwhile Picket and the Steelers have excelled in night games (Pickett is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in night games with Steelers) 

Additional trends…

-When Steelers open -2.5 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 24-12-4 ATS under Tomlin at home

-Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

-Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Pitt 

Updated Record

Straight ups: 31-24 +6.34 units

Teasers: 11-7 +2.55 units

Adding:

Colts -2 (-110) 1.5u

Vikings +4 (-110) 1u 

@Rollz

Buccaneers +10.5/Raiders +4.5 (-125) 1.5 units 

leaning eagles as well may or may not play 

Correction: that teaser is played with rams not Bucs. Also on eagles 

*Rams +10.5/Raiders +4.5 teaser (-125) 1.5 units 

Eagles -3 (-110) 1.5 units 

Full card. Looking into that bengals bills game as well will be back. 

Week 9

Seahawks +6 (-120) 1.5u

Colts -2 (-110) 1.5u

Eagles -3 (-110) 1.5u

Chiefs -2.5 (-110) 1.5u

Steelers -2.5 (-115) 1u 

Vikings +4 (-110) 1u

Rams +10.5/Raiders +4.5 (-125) 1.5u

Steelers +4.5/Browns -1.5 (-120) 1.5u

Adding Bengals on the moneyline..They’re just playing better football right now. Bills defense has been suspect as of late I think burrow carves them up. Should be a good one have more confidence with the home team here in better form. 

Week 9

Seahawks +6 (-120) 1.5u 

Bengals ml (-125) 1.5u 

Colts -2 (-110) 1.5u

Eagles -3 (-110) 1.5u

Chiefs -2.5 (-110) 1.5u 

Steelers -2.5 (-115) 1u 

Vikings +4 (-110) 1u 

Rams +10.5/Raiders +4.5 (-125) 1.5u 

Steelers +4.5/Browns -1.5 (-120) 1.5u 

Picked up some units this week going 7-2 on all plays  Will have 1 for tonight’s game, will be back. 

Week 9

Seahawks +6 (-120) 1.5u 

Bengals ml (-125) 1.5u 

Colts -2 (-110) 1.5u 

Eagles -3 (-110) 1.5u 

Chiefs -2.5 (-110) 1.5u 

Steelers -2.5 (-115) 1u 

Vikings +4 (-110) 1u 

Rams +10.5/Raiders +4.5 (-125) 1.5u 

Steelers +4.5/Browns -1.5 (-120) 1.5u 

Updated Record

Straight ups: 35-25 +11.04 units 

Teasers: 12-8 +2.30 units 

Correction: straight up record is actually 36-25 I can’t count. The play tonight…

Chargers -3 (-120) 1.5u

Another winner on chargers last night got a nice little run going..Will start gearing up for next weeks slate 

Updated Record

Straight ups: 37-25 +12.29 units 

Teasers: 12-8 +2.30 units

One in for this week..Will have more soon 

Colts ml (-120) 1.5u

Bills -2.5/Ravens +1 (-120) 1.5u

Seahawks -6 (-115) 1.5u

GL this week 

@Fuse

 Appreciated fuse 

Packers +9.5/Titans +6.5 (-120) 1.5u

Gonna grab the bears tonight for the action. Don’t love it, but I see a path for success for them and just don’t with Carolina. Looking like 15-20 mph winds tonight with struggling qbs so we could see an emphasis in the run game for both teams. That would certainly work in chicagos favor against the 32nd ranked run defense by DVOA. Chicago has been a decent rush team averaging the 6th most yards per carry (may be skewed because of Justin fields rushing ability) but they appear to have the advantage in that regard. I believe Carolina will struggle to run the ball as they haven’t been able to all year and this bears team is ranked 3rd in yards per carry allowed and 4th in total rush yards allowed. Do not like laying it with the bears but think they match up ok here.

Bears -3 (-115) 1u

2 more plays.. Should have a couple more

Vikings +3 (-120) 1.5u

Browns +6.5 (-112) 1.5u

Cashed out of the browns play for tiny loss. Honestly forgot I played ravens on a teaser early in the week, and have decided I don’t like it anyway after further review. Here’s the card will probably add. 

49ers -3 (-118) 1.5u

Week 10 plays 

Colts ml (-120) 1.5u

Seahawks -6 (-115) 1.5u

Vikings +3 (-120) 1.5u

49ers -3 (-118) 1.5u

Packers +9.5/Titans +6.5 (-120) 1.5u

Bills -2.5/Ravens +1 (-120) 1.5u 

Grabbing lions while it’s under 3.. Goff indoors against a bad chargers secondary. The only real threat from the chargers D is the line and I believe detroits front is good enough for it not to be a big factor. Think lions have their way offensively, while the defense comes up with some key stops.

Lions -2.5 (-112) 1.5u

Raiders +1.5 (-110) 1.5u

Good week for straight up plays going 5-1, teasers go 0-2 . Not a bad week either way, maybe just one teaser a week from here on out. Or none. We'll see, may have one for tonight.

Week 10 plays 

Colts ml (-120) 1.5u

Seahawks -6 (-115) 1.5u

Vikings +3 (-120) 1.5u

49ers -3 (-118) 1.5u

Lions -2.5 (-112) 1.5u

Raiders +1.5 (-110) 1.5u

Packers +9.5/Titans +6.5 (-120) 1.5u

Bills -2.5/Ravens +1 (-120) 1.5u 

Going to try the broncos tonight...Broncos playing better ball coming off a surprising dominant win over the chiefs and a bye week following that. Coming into this game well rested vs a reeling buffalo team that is having trouble defensively. This is a team that gave up 29 pts to the sorry patriots just a couple weeks ago. I think Denver should be able to score with buffalo with the extra time to prep so definitely like getting a touchdown here. Sean Payton has been historically profitable in these scenarios. Payton is 38-21 SU on extended rest, and when he is a dog on extended rest, he is 9-5 ATS. The unders have been rolling in primetime games but i see a higher scoring game here as Denver keeps it close in a shootout type of game. Just a 1 unit play.

Broncos +7.5 (-120) 1 unit

Updated Record

Straight ups: 42-26 +17.27 units

Teasers: 12-10 -0.70 units