NFL 2023

BOL to all this season...Starting off with a teaser. Will have a couple straight up plays before Sunday rolls around. Do lean Cleveland for now.

Chiefs ml/Steelers +7.5 (-120) 1 unit

Went ahead and took Browns and bought the half to 3. If this line gets to 3 at some point i will likely add to it.

Browns +3 (-135) 1 unit

Adding:

Giants +3.5 (-115) 1 unit 

Saints -3 (-110) 1 unit 

Already have chiefs on a teaser but do like them tonight. Will play them for a half unit. 

Chiefs -4 (-120) 0.5 unit 

Straight ups: 0-1 (-0.5 units)

Teasers: 0-1 (-1 unit) 

Going to add…

Texans +10.5 (-128) 1 unit 

Full card (may add)

Browns +3 (-135) 1 unit 

Giants +3.5 (-115) 1 unit 

Saints -3 (-110) 1 unit 

Texans +10.5 (-128) 1 unit 

Add:

Rams +11.5/Patriots +10.5 teaser (-125) 1 unit 

Add:

Bears Ml (-118) 1 unit 

Rough start to the season going 1-5 yesterday on straight up plays. Probably shouldn't have played this many games week 1 but you live and you learn. The teaser play did hit and usually do have success with those, will typically play 1 or 2 teasers per week.

Updated Record:

Straight ups: 1-6 (-4.7 units)

Teasers: 1-1 (-0.2 units)

Will hopefully start to chip away at these losses. Strong lean to the Jets tonight playing at home... This Jets defense gave the Bills fits last year holding them to 20 and 17 pts in their 2 matchups last season. The jets winning one of those games at home. Now the Jets have Rodgers who hasn't lost a monday night football game since 2013 (9-0 last 9 MNF games). This Bills team are no slouches in primetime games but i give the edge to New York on their home turf as a divisional home dog (Divisional home underdogs are 16-7-2 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) in Week 1 since 2009. Will probably have a play in shortly. BOL to all tonight.

Jets +2 (-110) 1 unit 

Jets ml (+110) 0.5 unit 

Correction: 1-4 last night

Straight up record: 1-5 (-3.76 units)

Teasers: 1-1 (-0.20 units)

Was a bit sleepy. 

Big win last night… Really feel for Rodgers I was excited about this team too. Hope this doesn’t spell the end for A-Rod. 

Updated Record

Straight ups: 3-5 (-2.3 units)

Teasers: 1-1 (-0.2 units)

2 week 2 plays in thus far…

Seahawks +6 (-124) 1 unit 

Steelers +7.5/Cowboys -3 teaser (-120) 1 unit 

Thursday night game:

Eagles 1h -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

I might have a fg play too but this one stuck out to me for a team that has proven to be a very fast starter. Primetime game in Philly i expect Hurts and the Eagles to get rollin in a hurry as they typically do (15-5 against the first half spread last season). I also lean to Eagles fg at anything 6 and under.

Just gonna add some trends below that i thought were interesting...

-Hurts at home in night games (6 p.m. ET or later): 6-1-1 ATS 

-Hurts at home: 13-5-1 ATS (second-best of 86 QBs since 2020; behind Jared Goff)

-Cousins has been the underdog in primetime 19 times. His teams are 4-14-1 SU, 7-12 ATS

-The Eagles have won the first half in each of their last seven games as favorites following a win.

Another add for this week...

Ravens +3.5 (-115) 1 unit

Liking this play for sunday...

Giants -5.5 (-110) 1 unit

A lot of trends favoring the giants here and you gotta think they'll bounce back after the shutout last week. The Giants should have a distinct advantage all over the field, and teams coming off a shutout loss have historically done pretty well against the spread. I suspect many will overreact to there terrible performance last week and grab the home dog but not I.

-Jones is 21-10 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-5 ATS over the last four seasons – Jones is the most profitable QB ATS after a loss since 2020.

-Jones home/road split: Home: 13-16 ATS | Road/Neutral: 19-8 ATS

-Giants were 7-1 ats on the road last season

Will have a couple more plays and still might add a fg bet for tonight but for now just Eagles 1h -3.5 in.

Adding this for tonight as well...

Eagles fg -6 (-118) 1 unit

Thursday plays:

Eagles 1h -3.5 (-115) 1 unit

Eagles fg -6 (-118) 1 unit

What a leg 

1-0 with a push last night…

Updated Record

Straight ups: 4-5 (-1.43 units)

Teasers: 1-1 (-0.2 units)

Adding: Chiefs +3.5/Bears +8.5 teaser

(-130) 1 unit 

Another add: 

Broncos -3.5 (-110) 1 unit 

Full Sunday card

Seahawks +6 (-124) 1 unit 

Ravens +3.5 (-115) 1 unit 

Giants -5.5 (-110) 1 unit 

Broncos -3.5 (-110) 1 unit 

Chiefs +3.5/Bears +8.5 teaser (-130) 1 unit

Cowboys -3/Steelers +7.5 teaser (-120) 1 unit 

Adding: 

Dolphins ml (-125) 1 unit 

Straight ups: 7-7 -0.95 units

Teasers: 1-2 -1.2 units 

Need Pitt +7.5 to close teaser and may have another play for tonight…

Panthers +3 (-110) 1 unit 

I don’t think this saints team should be a 3 point fav on the road against anybody. I expect a close game gotta give Carolina the edge here with the points and home crowd.

Additionally: 

-In Derek Carr’s career, he is 26-35 ATS after a SU win, fourth-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003.

-Carr was 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders

-Dennis Allen after a SU win: 3-12 SU

- Dennis Allen is 5-12-1 ATS vs. divisional foes as a head coach (1-9 ATS last 10 games)

Think Pittsburgh comes to play on Monday night. We all know Tomlin's track record as a home dog but just some food for thought and other interesting trends...

-Tomlin is 32-15-1 ATS (68.1%) as an underdog against teams with a winning record

-Browns are 3-9 SU on the road in night games vs. AFC North

-Steelers are 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS on MNF since 2014 

-Steelers as home dog under Tomlin: 16-5-3 ATS

-Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 107-73-4 ATS (59% win rate) the ensuing week over the last 20 years

Monday Night Plays:

Steelers +2.5 (-115) 1 unit

Panthers +3 (-110) 1 unit

Steelers +7.5 to close teaser

BOL to all tonight looking foward to the double header