NFL 2023

Rolls any input on tonights game?

@jimbojpc

I like chargers 1st half..but lean chargers fg. The cowboys likely aren’t as good as perceived as they played 3 of the worst teams in the league and the jets prior to getting throttled by San Fran last week. Meanwhile, the chargers defense has improved every week and we know what that offense can do. Ekeler back as well is a big returning piece. Dak has not been as effective on the road and this chargers secondary has been decent. Not to mention giving Kellen Moore an extra week to prepare against his old defense. Like them getting points at home in a relatively low scoring prime time game. 

-Herbert is 4-2 su at home in night games.

-Herbert is 12-6 ats as an underdog 

Like the 1st half better as they often times implode in the 2nd half in games which is highlighted in my last post. These trends are alarming, and probly more so a coaching problem than a Herbert problem…

• Herbert 2H ATS Career:
  -2023: 0-3-1 ATS
  -2022: 6-10-2 ATS
  -2021: 5-12 ATS                       
  -2020: 4-9-2 ATS

• In night games, Herbert is 2-10-1 2H ATS

Loser last night.. Added a teaser for this week which have been successful at 10-3 on the year. Also got chargers +6 vs chiefs as they always play them tough…

Lions +8.5/Seahawks -2.5 teaser (-125) 1.5 units 

Updated Record 

Straight ups: 24-18 +4.00 units 

Teasers: 10-3 +5.85 units

Lions +3 (-110) 1 unit

Rams +3.5/Colts +8.5 teaser (-120) 1.5 units 

Saints ml (-125) 1 unit 

Adding another teaser. Should be last one just think there’s good opportunities with teasers this week plus they’ve done very well for me this season. 

Falcons +8.5/49ers pk (-120) 1.5 units 

Was waiting on injury updates for the Philly game it looks like they’ll be getting a lot back. On them. Full card update, heavy on teasers this week. 

Eagles -2.5 (-118) 1.5 units 

Week 7

Chargers +6 (-115) 1.5 units 

Eagles -2.5 (-118) 1.5 units 

Saints ml (-125) 1 unit 

Lions +3 (-110) 1 unit 

Lions +8.5/Seahawks -2.5 (-125) 1.5u 

Rams +3.5/Colts +8.5 (-120) 1.5u 

Falcons +8.5/49ers pk (-120) 1.5u 

Adding:

Colts +3.5 (-110) 1 unit 

Broncos ml (-108) 1 unit 

Already on Eagles -2.5 but adding another unit to Philly -3. 

Eagles -2.5 (-118) 1.5 units 

Eagles -3 (-105) 1 unit 

3-2 on straight up plays sunday, hitting my biggest play so far on Eagles. Couple losers on teasers, need a San Fran win tonight to close the other teaser. Do have a lean on 9ers on the spread as well, under 7 looks good may or may not play.

Updated Record

Straight ups: 27-21 +4.56 units

Teasers: 10-5 +2.85

49ers -6.5 (-115) 1 unit

Updated Record 

Straight ups: 27-22 +3.56 units

Teasers: 10-6 +1.35 units 

Got 2 plays in for next week…

Titans +2.5 (-110) 1.5 units 

Broncos +14.5/Lions -2.5 teaser (-120) 1.5 units 

Bills -3/Jaguars +4 teaser (-125) 1.5 units 

Do lean bills on the spread as well but might lay off of it. BOL tonight! 

Bengals +3.5 (-115) 1.5 units 

GL tonight 

Bought out of bengals +3.5 for a small loss and will go bigger on bengals +4.5. Think this sets up well for them. Off the bye which will help burrow get more healthy, even though he’s looked better in recent weeks. Meanwhile 9ers on shorter rest. I get the 9ers home dominance but Burrow and these bengals have excelled as a dog (As an underdog of 3 or more points, Joe Burrow is 14-2 ATS in the NFL) 

San Fran will certainly welcome a return to home where they have covered 10 straight games. But I see a healthier bengals team keeping this one tight, particularly if the 9ers roll out Sam Darnold. Who has been historically bad as a favorite. Burrow and the bengals tend to get up for these games against good teams and think this one will be no different against a beat up 9ers squad that hasn’t looked the same, coming off short rest. 

Info that may be of use 

• Burrow is 18-4 SU and 18-3-1 ATS in his last 22 games vs. non-divisional opponents
  
  
• Burrow is 17-9 SU, 18-8 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU
  
  
• Burrow is 15-0 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog and Bengals are 16-0 in 6-pt teaser as an underdog.
  
  
• Joe Burrow prefers the road to home when it comes to covering the number.
  Road/Neutral: 20-10 ATS
  Home: 14-10-1 ATS

Bengals +4.5 (-115) 2 units

Also liking the pack to bounce back…

Packers +1.5 (-105) 1 unit 

Added Cleveland and Carolina. Here’s the card for now (All dawggggs), may add. 

Week 8

Bengals +4.5 (-115) 2 units 

Titans +2.5 (-110) 1.5 units 

Browns +4 (-118) 1.5 units 

Panthers +3.5 (-110) 1.5 units 

Packers +1.5 (-105) 1 unit 

Bills -3/Jaguars +4 teaser (-125) 1.5 units

Broncos +14.5/Lions -2.5 teaser (-120) 1.5 units

Just saw that tannehill will be out tomm. I went ahead and cashed out my tenn play and will instead be on the colts..No play on titans. 

Colts +2 (-110) 1.5 units 

Adding: 

Broncos +7 (-115) 1.5 units 

Not a bad week going up a little over 3 units overall. Need Lions -2.5 to close that last teaser. 

Week 8

Bengals +4.5 (-115) 2 units 

Colts +2 (-110) 1.5 units 

Browns +4 (-118) 1.5 units push

Broncos +7 (-115) 1.5 units 

Panthers +3.5 (-110) 1.5 units 

Packers +1.5 (-105) 1 unit 

Bills -3/Jaguars +4 teaser (-125) 1.5u 

Broncos +14.5/Lions -2.5 teaser (-120) 1.5u 

Updated Record

Straight ups: 30-24 +5.47 units

Teasers: 11-7 +2.55 units

One in for next week, bought a half point 

Seahawks +6 (-120) 1.5 units 

Got two more to add for this week..

Chiefs -2.5 (-110) 1.5 units

Steelers +4.5/Browns -1.5 teaser (-120) 1.5 units

Quick write-up on that chiefs play…Think we’re getting line value here because of the chiefs loss last week to the lowly broncos. I’m ok with that, after all the chiefs are 16-3 su under mahomes after a loss. It appears this dolphins team has trouble winning the big ones, and I don’t think they match up particularly well here. The chiefs defense has actually been solid this season, giving up 20 or less in 6 of the last 7 games (Ranked 4th in success rate). I expect them to get more stops and Mahomes to get his against a dolphins defense that is 27th in success rate. I just trust Andy Reid and the chiefs ability to bounce back after a bad loss, conversely I do not trust the Dolphins against top competition based on what I’ve seen up to this point. 

-Dolphins are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games as the underdog.

-Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss 

-Chiefs are 22-8 ats in their last 30 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0  

-Mahomes as -3 or less fav/or dog: (19-6-1 ATS)