My biggest play of the year to date tomorrow for MNF + writeup

Quote Originally Posted by Bling:

So what is your play

Quote Originally Posted by gollum:

I have never started a thread like this. I don't do POY/POM type shit. I am just saying, I am more confident in this play than I have been the rest of the season so far, thus I will be placing my largest wager to date on it. The play is 4th quarter over 13.5 (-110). If I was you I would also play it and play it quickly.

My reasoning for this play is quite simple. I am a lions fan, I have watched all of their games this season and I have seen all of their 4th quarter comebacks and near comebacks. The lions are #1 in the NFL in 4th quarter offensive scoring at 15.2 points per game. That is more than 2 TDs per 4th quarter BY THEMSELVES. In fact they have scored more points in the 4th quarter this season than the first 3 combined and it hasn't even been close. 76-50! On top of that they have allowed the opposing teams to score 10.8 points per 4th quarter. That is a total of 26 points per scored in the 4th quarter of lions games this year.

On the other side Chicago has scored 13 points per 4th this year themselves. Their 4th qt D has been stingy at only 5 pts per game for opposing teams, but I don't think it will matter. If you want to look at home/away the lions have actually put up more 4th quarter points on the road at 18.33 per game while allowing 14.67. That is a total of 33 points per 4th quarter when Detroit is on the road. On the Chicago side the 4th quarter at home has been much milder at a measly 10 for and 3.5 against.

I do not know why the lions wait till the 4th quarter to turn it on but it is a trend a simply can and will not ignore.
game by game total points in the 4th:
St Louis- 24,
San Fran- 20,
tennessee-46,
minnesota-7,
phili-27.

in case you are wondering about that yawner 4th against minnesota. 1st drive of the quarter Min misses a 46 field goal (potential 3 pts off the board) 2nd drive Detroit drives 57 yards down to the Minnesota 7, but elects to go for it and fails to punch it in on 4th and 5. (3 or 7 potential points off the board depending on how you look at it). 3rd drive: Min gives it to peterson/gerhart 6 times eating up 3:40 then punts. 4th drive- Detroit TD.  5th drive- Minnesota forces Detroit to use it's timeouts plus the 2 minute warning. last drive Detroit gets it back with 1:42 at its own 2 yd line and is stopped on 4th down short of midfield.

For Chicago its been:
 indi-14,
GB-17,
St Louis-13,
Dallas-18,
Jax-28.

So We have a 4-1 record on overs in 4th quarters for the two teams this year (probably actualy 5-0 for chi not sure what o/u for St. Louis 4th was, game o/u was only 41.5, but for argument sake we'll use 13.5). Could both teams fall to 4-2 for o/u's here. absolutely. Am I willing to bet a lot of money they won't. Yup

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:

I agree w/your play

You could also consider playing 2H Over (depending on how the game goes)

Both teams are great at 2H scoring

Bears avg over 20 pts in the 2H
Lions avg over 17 pts in the 2H

Quote Originally Posted by ChipsNVouchers:

I really like finding gems like this one- thanks for sharing.

Along this line of thinking, what do you think about 1H under? I remember back a couple weeks watching Bears/Cowboys MNF that Bears 1H should always be considered.

Quote Originally Posted by redbook1:

oddly, your line is less than the 2nd qtr line (assuming you use 5dimes).

Quote Originally Posted by bipolarroller:

WTF?.....Never saw anything like this!........Gotta be a better way to beat the books...So, it's "over" for the 4th qtr.??....Both teams together or just det. team total?