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Monday September 10 2007 NFL pick ( Ariz-SF)

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Posts: 73

genghisyoung

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 4

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 1:47 AM ET #51

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lajohn

All-Star

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 14965

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 1:51 AM ET #52

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Tarheelz

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2001

Posts: 2365

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 1:52 AM ET #53

lol so many people didn't bother to read Robert's 2nd post and thought he was on the over and went with it. I had a friend call me tonight saying he was on the over bc of Robert......and I was like but he is on the under.

Lennon, Hunted, chillery, charlene all thought you were on the over

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natural8blue

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 241

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 1:52 AM ET #54

Nice hit!!!!!!!!!!

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tall_mike

Veteran

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 1475

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 2:02 AM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by Tarheelz:

lol so many people didn't bother to read Robert's 2nd post and thought he was on the over and went with it. I had a friend call me tonight saying he was on the over bc of Robert......and I was like but he is on the under.

Lennon, Hunted, chillery, charlene all thought you were on the over

thats hilarious because my fren did the same thing.. except he didnt' lock it in.. i was like.. no buddy.. Roberto's on the under..

nice hit again Roberto.. lets keep the streak alive into week 4 at least.. all of your hard work and your gutsy move paid off.. nice job man

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garydo

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 548

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 2:18 AM ET #56

you are god

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GoCougs

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 4497

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 2:36 AM ET #57

Everyone was on the over in that game. All I gotta say is you da man baby.

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tkenniger

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 515

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 2:37 AM ET #58

right again

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 4:16 AM ET #59

Thanks everyone !

This was a case of me not having enough time for a lenghty writeup ,

and so I decided to present my case for the Under

in this game with a disclaimer ...

That would be that: if you looked at the trends that are readily available to everyone , this was a case where the over seemed to be the right play .

So, I decided to present the evidence indicating

what the public would be betting on ...and sure enough the line climbed to as high as 47 ...

I decided that the week 1 trend that served me well on two prior games would be the one I would follow .

There is some solid reasoning for backing unders on high lines in week one , as well as a solid trend backing the unders on low lines on week one.

Week one , it is the offenses that are not in sync , where the routes are not crisp, the timing not there yet , the offense hasn't had enough reps , the play more conservative , the calls more cautious, the gambles not as great ....

after all every team is in first place , and the rust from the offseason has not settled yet .

The lines are also set based on prior years results , and the public perception is fixed in the past ...as there are no present season performances to judge.

If you tally up the unders hit this first week

you'll see plenty of them ...>> in fact going with covers lines ....

the unders finished 10-5-1

The trend I highlighted for week 1 both on the trends & things thread and on here for the Thursday game, Sunday game, and , finally Monday's game was solid ....

Over 10 years hitting at 70 %

It went 3 for 3 this week ...adding to that percentage !

You must save these for future reference ...

That's how you build a winning portfolio..!

If there was any confusion as to what I was taking today ( the OVER or the UNDER...well ..all I can say I'll work on my presentation !

I play devil's advocate sometimes , because I find that nothing

kills success more often ...than overconfidence ...

On another note , I was rather surprised at the amount of favorites

covering this first week.

Lets take a look at the results >>>

9-6-1 advantage to the favorites ....

Not having looked at as single matchup or trend for the upcoming week ...

I inmediately begin to think about underdogs ...So my thought early in the week as I glance superficially at the games being played is : What dogs look good this week...?

and build from there .

As for the over/unders I don't necessarily focus on the overs , because so many unders hit ...That is the contrarian in me ...

I will give them equal weight .

The search for the following week's plays in my mind should always be biased ...that is to say ...you want a focus , and starting point of reference .

A bit of a ramble ...but I hope it makes some sense.....

0

Thanks everyone !

This was a case of me not having enough time for a lenghty writeup ,

and so I decided to present my case for the Under

in this game with a disclaimer ...

That would be that: if you looked at the trends that are readily available to everyone , this was a case where the over seemed to be the right play .

So, I decided to present the evidence indicating

what the public would be betting on ...and sure enough the line climbed to as high as 47 ...

I decided that the week 1 trend that served me well on two prior games would be the one I would follow .

There is some solid reasoning for backing unders on high lines in week one , as well as a solid trend backing the unders on low lines on week one.

Week one , it is the offenses that are not in sync , where the routes are not crisp, the timing not there yet , the offense hasn't had enough reps , the play more conservative , the calls more cautious, the gambles not as great ....

after all every team is in first place , and the rust from the offseason has not settled yet .

The lines are also set based on prior years results , and the public perception is fixed in the past ...as there are no present season performances to judge.

If you tally up the unders hit this first week

you'll see plenty of them ...>> in fact going with covers lines ....

the unders finished 10-5-1

The trend I highlighted for week 1 both on the trends & things thread and on here for the Thursday game, Sunday game, and , finally Monday's game was solid ....

Over 10 years hitting at 70 %

It went 3 for 3 this week ...adding to that percentage !

You must save these for future reference ...

That's how you build a winning portfolio..!

If there was any confusion as to what I was taking today ( the OVER or the UNDER...well ..all I can say I'll work on my presentation !

I play devil's advocate sometimes , because I find that nothing

kills success more often ...than overconfidence ...

On another note , I was rather surprised at the amount of favorites

covering this first week.

Lets take a look at the results >>>

9-6-1 advantage to the favorites ....

Not having looked at as single matchup or trend for the upcoming week ...

I inmediately begin to think about underdogs ...So my thought early in the week as I glance superficially at the games being played is : What dogs look good this week...?

and build from there .

As for the over/unders I don't necessarily focus on the overs , because so many unders hit ...That is the contrarian in me ...

I will give them equal weight .

The search for the following week's plays in my mind should always be biased ...that is to say ...you want a focus , and starting point of reference .

A bit of a ramble ...but I hope it makes some sense.....

RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Sep. 11, 2007 - 5:02 AM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by Mastermind000:

anything look good early roberto?

Ok, I'll give you my first ramblings of the week ... they might sound something like this >>>>>>

Remember ....these are the earliest light bulbs going off !

Chicago will beat the crap out of Kansas City

New England and San Diego will be one hell of a game ... Damm , I love San Diego as a dog ( and over 3 ) to anyone . Yes, I see value ....

I am a big fan of teams that just made me money ...

specially the ones that have struggled for an extended period of time , and I perceive to be good value for perhaps an entire season

Such team just might be the Houston Texans .....

You mean Houston is going to Carolina where they the Panthers are home , and a big favorite ..?

Can you say upset..? ...ok ...how about close game....

I rode New Orleans Early last year to good success....

I rode Cincinnati for an entire season as an experiment 2 years ago figuring they would make the playoffs for the first time in a long time ...

Which is the cinderella team this year....Its end of week one ...You better start looking now...!!!

Be ahead of the disbelieving pack , and the " I'll wait to adjust the lines oddsmakers !"

I keep thinking how long is it going to take us to realize ...that maybe Tennessee winning all these games against tough opponents and in miracle finishes is not such a fluke ....!

Answer: The moment most of us do .....They will get crushed ! Be on the lookout for that week

Maybe Atlanta wihout Michael Vick will suck ...and early ..!

Be careful with Dallas ...they might be able to beat you in a shootout , and then beat you 13-10 ....Most balanced team in the NFC ...? Perhaps ....

If Green Bay can win @ home ...they certainly can win on the road ! ( sarcasm )

Ok so ...Pittsburgh does have Cleveland's number ...

New England does have NY Jets number ,

Cincinnati does have Baltimore's number

Now , will these three teams be overpriced ...next week..>?

very possible ...two are at home this coming week ....and the other is facing a weak opponent

Can you see 2 of these 3 losing ATS deserves a better look..!

anyway ....early thoughts...........