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Monday September 10 2007 NFL pick ( Ariz-SF)

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ,
 
 
I might under normal circumstances stay away from
both of these games tonight ...but
It just would not be right being Monday Night Football and all
as Sosa would say :
 
Monday nights have been berry, berry, beerry good to me !
 
If you forced me to pick both sides under duress ...
I would think my chances to go 2-0 would be better
placed on the dogs, as I believe they are the better teams
to begin with .
 Being that I would rather have a wait and see attitude on the first leg of these divisional matchups , I will pass
on Arizona and Baltimore and pick a total instead.
 
Last year I hit 15 out of 17 monday night games.
I don't expect the same results !
 
Arizona has been an Over machine over last 3 years
going :
 
29-18 overs last 3 years
21-11 overs last 2 years
11-5 overs last year
 
San Francisco has a slight edge on the overs in all their games
past 3 years
 
more trends that indicate Over is the right play :

OU Trends

Arizona
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on Grass.
  • Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games in Week 1.
  • Over is 27-7 in Cardinals last 34 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 25-8 in Cardinals last 33 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 28-9 in Cardinals last 37 road games.
  • Over is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 vs. NFC West.
  • Under is 11-5 in Cardinals last 16 games in September.
San Francisco
  • Over is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Over is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 Monday games.
  • Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-0 in 49ers last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games in September.
  • Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 games on Grass.
  • Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. NFC West.
  • Under is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 home games.

Head to Head

  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.
  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
like both overs tonight
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
on the other hand ....
since '96 in MNF games w/ totals = or  over 45
the Unders are 19-26
 
and according to NFLwinningpicks database
on week 1 the Unders are hitting 20 - 7  since 96
on totals set @ or above 45
 
 I posted previously this week ...this stat >>>
going back 10 years ...1996-2006
 
UNDERS have hit at a  clip of 31-13 ( 70.4 % ) when ....
total line is  <= 35   and   >= 45
(so 35 or less and 45 or more )
 
It was in part due to this stat that I played the Wash-Miami
under game and the Indi-Cin game Under giving this trend a nice
2-0 going for the week .
I am a big believer in ...if it ain't broke , don't fix it ....
 
I have other reasons naturally for liking the Under in this play ...
and that is what I will be playing ....
so short on time today .....
 
here is my pick >>>
 
 
Game :   Arizona @ San Francisco
 
Pick :  UNDER 45.5  ( 2 units )
 
 
******************************************************
 
 
I believe I will get it @ 46 as I have not placed it yet ...
but I am fair and square , and promised never to post a line not readily available .
 
Well, folks ...I might have lost my sanity ...but then
again ..anything is possible
 
Good luck in your wagers....
I'll try to stop in for more info ...if not see you Later !
 
 
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
on the other hand ....
since '96 in MNF games w/ totals = or  over 45
the Unders are 19-26
 
this should read  26-19 Unders ....
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
GL with your totals Roberto
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
very gutsy play.
both games went over 45.5 last year, add in a few jitters nate clements and michael lewis, were goin under.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
gl
 
All-Star
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Posted: #9
 Think you sold me on Over SF-AZ. Stats don't lie.

TY RF


 
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Posted: #10
roberto, wish i could do my own research, but you are way better at it than me.
 
do you have a trend where a team swept a div opponent the year before and were dogs the next time out. just have a feeling this will favor san fran.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #11
Niners and the over!!!!!!!!!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #12
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
Thanks for the writeup, Roberto
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14

Teaser  Niners over and baltimore plus nine

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
7 of the last 10 games between Zona/SF have gone over. Like those odds and trust the trend this game goes over 46.
 
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Posted: #16
 I posted previously this week ...this stat >>>
going back 10 years ...1996-2006
UNDERS have hit at a  clip of 31-13 ( 70.4 % ) when ....
total line is  <= 35   and   >= 45
(so 35 or less and 45 or more )

Is that for week 1 games only? 


 
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Posted: #17
I must say Out of all the posters...U have the most helpful trend information hands down...Thank you for being so resourceful and take the time to supply us with this information tonight.....I think the game will go over...But onlt becuz SF will score plenty tonight....I predicted a 31-17 sf wins score...Which is barely going over...It could also easily go 28-14 SF win and send it Under...Either way that is why I hate totals and am sticking with the easy call in SF -3...GL Roberto and thanks again for being a great asset to the forum
 
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Posted: #18
Good luck tonight Roberto.
 
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Posted: #19
Yeah that's what I thought as well, Glad we're on the same boat Roberto.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #20
"Last year I hit 15 out of 17 monday night games.
 I don't expect the same results !"
 
Confidence isn't everything...but it's important.
 
Cards 
Lean Cards/49'ers Over
Bengals
 
Rookie
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by TWINSRUS:

 
 
Cards 
Lean Cards/49'ers Over
Bengals

 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
BOL RF
 
Veteran
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Posted: #23
GL RF. 
 
Rookie
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Posted: #24
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #25
BOL Roberto but i´m on the over 45. and
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