Posted:
#26
BOL Bud 
***Macwesties * Sat. * Sun. Jan. 22, 23, 2022 * NFL * Divisional * Football Plays***
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by Rudyj:
@Macwestie1 I believe the Titans are a better team with Henry. Stats can be misleading though. Titans get little respect. Everyone talking about KC or Buffalo. I would not be shocked if the Titans go to and win the Superbowl. No I'm not from Tennessee. I'm a Browns fan.
@Macwestie1 I believe the Titans are a better team with Henry. Stats can be misleading though. Titans get little respect. Everyone talking about KC or Buffalo. I would not be shocked if the Titans go to and win the Superbowl. No I'm not from Tennessee. I'm a Browns fan.
Good point Rudy
I’m sticking with my bet @ -3.5
I rarely hedge a bet, that article I put here was just his opinion only I don’t let anyone else sway my own final decision.
I also believe w/ Henry back if Titans win they will also Cover the number but WTf do I know 
just wanted to hear what others thought of the article 
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
Posted:
#31
Here's another article maybe of interest: pick your poison fellas I've made mine
49ers-Packers betting preview: Dare to compare in the NFC divisional round
The 49ers were the lone underdogs to survive the wild-card round. Can they do it again?
There's no suspense here since last week I recommended the start of a rollover moneyline parlay instead of a 49ers future. I did so knowing full well that the next opponent would be the Packers, barring an unexpected Eagles upset.
The question we need to answer for this game isn't, how can the 49ers win? Instead, we need to ask, how can Aaron Rodgers - the NFL's scariest quarterback - and the Packers lose?
It starts by remembering no team is perfect. Despite sitting atop the standings, the Packers lost a couple of times this season, though their 13 wins were enough to earn them a precious bye. Still, it doesn't make a playoff win automatic. So how do they lose? Or, at the very least, how do they not cover the spread?
It starts with finding comparable games with comparable opponents to see if there's a way in which the Packers are vulnerable. Just who are the 49ers? They're a run-centric team that uses misdirection and play-action to create long passing plays. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo works best with defined assignments on a play-to-play basis, but he's not someone you want in charge when the play design breaks down.
It might come as a surprise that San Francisco's pass offense actually averages a full yard more per pass attempt than Green Bay (8.6 to 7.6). However, it isn't a secret the 49ers can take advantage of the Packers' vulnerable run defense, which has allowed a whopping 4.7 yards per attempt this season.
A run-first offense designed to limit quarterback decision-making sounds like the Colts, Broncos, Titans, Eagles, Browns, and Vikings. Defensively, the Colts, Titans, Eagles, and Browns are comparable to the 49ers as units with low blitz rates. Of those four teams, only the Browns were on the Packers' schedule.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
Posted:
#32
Here's a sample of a few of the many comparable metrics between the 49ers' and Browns' defensive schemes:
Both teams feature star defensive ends and are versatile in coverage, with their linebackers able to drop back into the secondary. Despite owning the fourth-lowest blitz rate, the 49ers are third in the league in sack percentage.
Maybe you think it's an insult to San Francisco to compare it to Cleveland, but that's the point. The Browns visited the Packers for a high-profile Christmas night game in Week 16 and lost by just two points despite four interceptions from Baker Mayfield. If the 49ers are better than the Browns - who won the yardage battle that night 408-311 - why can't they win this game?
Of course, San Francisco was on Green Bay's schedule, as this game will be a rematch of the Packers' 30-28 win at Levi's Stadium in Week 3. The 49ers came back from 17 points down to take a late lead in that contest, only to see Rodgers lead a game-winning field goal drive with less than a minute left.
San Francisco profiles as a tough matchup for Green Bay and have proven it once already this season, but the 49ers' injury report has helped keep this spread at +6 - roughly a point and a half higher than previous market-based projections. Garoppolo, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner are all banged up, though all are expected to play. They're going to need to suit up for San Francisco to have a chance here. Outside of Deebo Samuel, those three are the most important pieces on this roster.
Meanwhile, the Packers appear to be getting healthier with regulars David Bakhtiari, Za'Darius Smith, and, most critically, Jaire Alexander on track to return. However, with hardly any game action under their belts this season, will they be up to playoff speed?
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
Posted:
#33
The Pick?
To beat Rodgers, the 49ers need to turn threes into sevens. Things got dicey for them in Dallas last week when they opted to kick on fourth downs. With the No. 1 red zone touchdown conversion rate in the NFL this season (67.3%), San Francisco can certainly keep pace with the Packers, who rank a pedestrian 18th in converting red-zone trips.
The 49ers' strong run defense will take the starch out of the Packers' play-action game, but the secondary needs to limit the penalties which killed them in the first matchup.
But the key here will be Elijah Mitchell and Samuel, who combined for just two carries in the Week 3 loss to Green Bay. The pair will help control Saturday's game, which comes down to another last-minute drive.
Bet: 49ers +6, rollover moneyline parlay (+215)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
Posted:
#34
@Macwestie1
In response to the Titans/Bengals matchup- Also agree that the Titans are underrated and have been all season. Mike Vrabel has proven to be a good coach in this league and coaching is so critical in playoff games that it could be the difference alone. That being said the 3.5 number is one that we all hate. Very possible that this game is a 3 point finish either way seeing that these offenses should move the ball easily. Just can't see this being a defensive game. Not sure if Titans have much of a home field advantage here as they aren't exactly known for a rowdy fan base. As far as King Henry goes, he hasn't played in a long time now. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if he ran for 200 yards. The guy is a freak of nature. The game to me comes down to stopping the Bengals passing attack. It seemed to me that they were a little conservative against the Raiders and could have scored 30 if they wanted to. Jamar Chase is unstoppable and will be one of the great wide receivers in this league for years to come. I expect big numbers from Cincy offense this week. Mostly for me it's the fact that the Bengals are kind of playing with nothing to lose here. Regardless of the outcome of this game they will be a playoff team for years to come with a young talented offense. Put them in the underdog role here and I have to take the Bengals. BOL mac
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:
Good point Rudy
I’m sticking with my bet @ -3.5
I rarely hedge a bet, that article I put here was just his opinion only I don’t let anyone else sway my own final decision.
I also believe w/ Henry back if Titans win they will also Cover the number but WTf do I know
I like the Titans to win too. Good luck
Posted:
#44
Mac Daddy !!! I love the Titans today !! Jumped on them at -3 and -3.5 and have them on the winning end of 2 ML parlays.
JIMMY has his hands full today but the 49ers are hot no doubt but it won't be hot in Green bay and JIMMY has never play in the cold.
Mr.Rodgers is a BADDDDDD man and I have the Packers on some winning ML parlays so maybe we both win buddy. One dog has to win this weekend and I think it might be the Rams , too much love for the Bills so I'll take KC at home at -2 all day and you watch that line jump by game time to -3
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:
Quote Originally Posted by Rudyj: @Macwestie1 I believe the Titans are a better team with Henry. Stats can be misleading though. Titans get little respect. Everyone talking about KC or Buffalo. I would not be shocked if the Titans go to and win the Superbowl. No I'm not from Tennessee. I'm a Browns fan. Good point Rudy I’m sticking with my bet @ -3.5 I rarely hedge a bet, that article I put here was just his opinion only I don’t let anyone else sway my own final decision. I also believe w/ Henry back if Titans win they will also Cover the number but WTf do I know just wanted to hear what others thought of the article
Quote Originally Posted by Rudyj: @Macwestie1 I believe the Titans are a better team with Henry. Stats can be misleading though. Titans get little respect. Everyone talking about KC or Buffalo. I would not be shocked if the Titans go to and win the Superbowl. No I'm not from Tennessee. I'm a Browns fan. Good point Rudy I’m sticking with my bet @ -3.5 I rarely hedge a bet, that article I put here was just his opinion only I don’t let anyone else sway my own final decision. I also believe w/ Henry back if Titans win they will also Cover the number but WTf do I know just wanted to hear what others thought of the article
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:
Here are the Titans' game-by-game rushing stats with Henry healthy: In eight games with Henry, Tennessee's rushing attack averaged 149.3 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. After Henry's foot surgery, the Titans foolishly signed Adrian Peterson but turned to younger options three contests into that failed experiment. Here's how their assortment of runners did in the final six games of the season: A combination of D'Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, Jeremy McNichols, and Ryan Tannehill ran for 164.2 yards per game, adding seven touchdowns. It's a compliment to the Titans that whether or not they get Henry back - he was cleared for contact Tuesday - they'll be able to run the football because they almost always can. Henry's perceived added value comes from him doing the work of three mortals when healthy, and it's amazing to watch. However, the Titans are 4-3 this season when running for more than 175 yards. Ground success hasn't translated to wins and covers for Tennessee. On top of that, the 4-3 record came against Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tua Tagovailoa. It may have been worse, but Wilson (overtime win) and Jones (23-point loss) were the only two of those quarterbacks to finish in the top 20 in passing yards per attempt. Joe Burrow led the NFL in that category this season. Here's how Tennessee's defense fared against the top 10 quarterbacks in that category:
Here are the Titans' game-by-game rushing stats with Henry healthy: In eight games with Henry, Tennessee's rushing attack averaged 149.3 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. After Henry's foot surgery, the Titans foolishly signed Adrian Peterson but turned to younger options three contests into that failed experiment. Here's how their assortment of runners did in the final six games of the season: A combination of D'Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, Jeremy McNichols, and Ryan Tannehill ran for 164.2 yards per game, adding seven touchdowns. It's a compliment to the Titans that whether or not they get Henry back - he was cleared for contact Tuesday - they'll be able to run the football because they almost always can. Henry's perceived added value comes from him doing the work of three mortals when healthy, and it's amazing to watch. However, the Titans are 4-3 this season when running for more than 175 yards. Ground success hasn't translated to wins and covers for Tennessee. On top of that, the 4-3 record came against Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tua Tagovailoa. It may have been worse, but Wilson (overtime win) and Jones (23-point loss) were the only two of those quarterbacks to finish in the top 20 in passing yards per attempt. Joe Burrow led the NFL in that category this season. Here's how Tennessee's defense fared against the top 10 quarterbacks in that category:
the talk about Henry when he is healthy seems right except I don't believe is back to full strength. I bet he shares the carries and might even reinjure himself. Tennessee still ok with their other backs.
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