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Let's Discuss Week 9

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
I'll guess that one of the plays is Indy, there's a ton of line value there.
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Dude just spit it out. Love your angles and much respect. But making this a guess who game is just childish.


It is to stimulate the discussion and get more opinions involved in this thread...
 
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Posted: #103

Did Manning's thumb figure into Vegas opening with low Denver chalk?

Reports from DoveValley say #18's thumb is just fine thank you. Do books know different? Or are they just fishing for Cincy money and using the thumb as bait?

 
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Posted: #104
Put me down also on the Bucs winning SU against the Raiders, and believing they should be the fav.  Freeman had some real swagger in MN, and the Freeman to Williams connection is becoming impressive.   Throw Vincent Jackson into the mix as a secondary target, and it present some very BIG problems for any defensive secondary.

Loving Gerald McCoy's play shoring up the D line.

I can see the Bucs going into Oakland and putting a beat down on the Raiders.  Ok, that may be an overstatement, but I can see them winning. 
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Read post #36. This game means nothing to the Bears. Not to mention teams tend to struggle big after a late 4th Q come from behind win.


I will never understand this reasoning, there are 16 games and unless you have already secured a first round bye, EVERY game means something.

 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by James35:

Put me down also on the Bucs winning SU against the Raiders, and believing they should be the fav.  Freeman had some real swagger in MN, and the Freeman to Williams connection is becoming impressive.   Throw Vincent Jackson into the mix as a secondary target, and it present some very BIG problems for any defensive secondary.

Loving Gerald McCoy's play shoring up the D line.

I can see the Bucs going into Oakland and putting a beat down on the Raiders.  Ok, that may be an overstatement, but I can see them winning. 
tb lost a KEY offensive lineman...plus they are 3-0 ats on the road...take oak....
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by bpbeelen:

I'll guess that one of the plays is Indy, there's a ton of line value there.

Yeah, alot of value going against one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

 
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Posted: #108
Broncos will beat the Bengals. This line reminds me of the falcons last week, +3 @ eagles. Eagles were coming of their bye and playing at home, as the bengals are this week. Broncos are a much better team than the bengals. Play of the week for sure.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:



I will never understand this reasoning, there are 16 games and unless you have already secured a first round bye, EVERY game means something.



Of course every game means something. But this is a long season in a very physical sport. It's only human for players to take games off and not give it their all. Distractions, injuries, being hurt, all take effect on a team, especially when you have a multiple game lead in the division and are playing a non-conference opponent with a horrible record. Now if that same team who has distractions or injuries were playing the superbowl champs, think they won't be more focused?
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by BEASTIN619:

Broncos will beat the Bengals. This line reminds me of the falcons last week, +3 @ eagles. Eagles were coming of their bye and playing at home, as the bengals are this week. Broncos are a much better team than the bengals. Play of the week for sure.

people really need to stop with 'this reminds me of'

Dude, the Falcons had a bye too. Broncos played on sunday night.

Therefore, the two have no relation other than the fact you like the road team.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #111
That's true, good point. Either way, I think the broncos will win easily.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit:



Yeah that Panthers Bears game was the textbook definition of a "letdown game", after their win over a div. rival on MNF.   I wonder how teams typically perform on the game after a letdown game?




Hard to quantify what a let down game is but teams who played on MNF in a divisional game, won the game but failed to cover, and the next week won again but failed to cover are ATS 3-1 in their next match. NOT much of a sample size!

Teams that were home favorites by more than 7 points and failed to cover the spread but won the game have a slight bias not to cover the spread the following week. Teams in this situation but lost as big favorites have a slight bias to cover their next game.
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by theKCco_op:



It is to stimulate the discussion and get more opinions involved in this thread...

He clearly dont need opinions and we dont need all the garbage to go along with his solid capping. 

 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Betting a veteran team the first game without their QB is one of the best bets you can make in the NFL. I won my play of the year last year when Vick was announced out and Vince Young was named the starter for 1 game. Unloaded on them against the Giants ML and +6 and they won by a touchdown. If Vick is announced out i'll pound the Eagles here.


Usually this is an extremely intelligent play but Eagles' chemistry right now is god awful. Having said that New Orleans isn't much to write home about.
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

He clearly dont need opinions and we dont need all the garbage to go along with his solid capping. 


Agreed. Not sure why all these schmucks are giving their picks.

If you don't hit over 60%, i see no reason to give your picks.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Lions in a terrible spot here. Jags aren't good but look up the stats for road non-conference games the week before a road divisional game. I'll tell you right now the numbers aren't pretty


League Capper: True, these numbers are horrid, but if you run the numbers for AD and AF in this situation since 2007, it will open your eyes.
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

Here are my thought about week 9 NFL games are:

Arizona / Green Bay. I smell a blow out game again to Cards from Lambeau field. The line tells it all.

Baltimore/ Cleveland.  Like Ravens money line only!. To cover 3.5 is looked TOO Easy for Ravens IMO. When the last time Ravens blow out Cleveland on the raod?. Baside, Cleveland Brown have been playing good football lately at home.

Carolina/ Washington. Good match-up for QBs……Cam Newton vs. RGIII……What’s else you asking for…..will slice to Cam Newton side…Doggy will bark this one. RGIII is no Jesus….Tebow is.

 The game that really stand out to me this week is Vikings vs. Seahawks; personally, I would grab Seahawks with -3.5 –As we all are expecting the line will jump up to 6 points by game time. Good opportunity for middle landing.  Seattle wins by 4.




Teams that failed to cover at home as 14+ favorites and then the next week are favored by more than 11 points are ATS 1-5 against the numbers. Still, hard to take ARZ but I wouldn't blindly assume this will be cake walk. Over the last two years ARZ has provided us with some wild upsets on the road and I respect the ARZ coaching staff. Still ARZ off of a DIV match and a short week off MNF and travelling. Not a good spot for either team.
 
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

why the hell is there so much Cowboys love.

Someone explain it to me. The mediocre cowboys vs the undefeated Falcons at home, giving less than a TD.



Dogs in Cowboys games are 27-10-1 since 2010. The Boys seem to play up or down to competition. Strong bias for DOGS to cover in Dallas game; albeit, the last two games the FAV has won and covered, but note in both games the outcome could have went the other way.
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