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Let me help you...NFL Week 15...

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Posted: #1
A few special notes ..don't know if you have noticed but the bottom feeders are not tanking...S.F, Oakland, NYJs, Detroit...all won this weekend and will pay the price on draft day...Teams who have locked up their division...Rams, Saints and Chiefs...now will have to battle for home field so they won't be lying down this week in particular but next week will be lots of resting key players and will affect the games...

As per usual, this is my first look and take on all the games with leans noted...none of these are official plays...

LA Chargers at K.C. Chiefs -3.5...53...
Tough winner for the Chiefs with that Ravens defense dealing some punishment...I believe Melvin Gordon will play this week and that is a big deal with the Ekler injury as he will not play...O/U started at 56, been hammered down...Eric Berry might play for the Chiefs and I believe Tyrek Hill will play...Chiefs have a huge DVOA advantage on special teams, slight disadvantage on defense, slight advantage offensively...liking the home team CHIEFS here as the step down from the Ravens in the defensive challenge will make this game seem very easy comparatively...LEAN also to UNDER...

Houston -6 at NYJs...-41.5...
No surprise to many that the Texans faced the Colts for the 2nd time this year..won the first, lost the second..first was a 3 point win, 2nd a 3 point loss...I think the Texans finish at 10-6..so they lose to the Eagles away and then either these JETS or JAGSs...If the JETS and Darnold play like yesterday, they can beat the Texans at home...Leaning to the JETS to get it done...Darnold strings two wins back to back as the Texans can't run the ball again and DeShaun throws picks...

Cleveland at Denver -3...45.5...
The Broncos needed that game and should have beaten the 49ers...but Shanahan came out with a great game plan and it was poorly adjusted to by the Broncos coaches...The Browns are a live dog every week now and this should be a defensive battle...liking the UNDER here...not picking a side in this one...Broncos balls could have been busted after that loss knocks them out of the playoffs while the Browns are playing for next years jobs...

Miami at Minnesota -7...43.5...
Cousins consistently disappoints under the bright lights of SNF,MNF or TNF...but this is the kind of game he shines in...Miami, on the other hand, might have just played and won their Super Bowl...how can it NOT be a let down to just keep on playing ball this year??!!...Give me Cousins out of the spotlight here and the Vikings defense to control this Tannehill this game...

Oakland at Cincinnati -3....46...
The Bengals favored in a football game...that's saying something...and why not after that performance last week, eh?...they should have beaten the Chargers imo...Oakland beats the Steelers...and you still think the Raiders are tanking?..no freaking way, Gruden does NOT tank...QB Driscoll impressed me last week and the Bengals defense stepped back up...taking the small home favorite here as the Raiders still suck..

T.B. at Baltimore -8....46.5...
The Bucs are a train wreck...a dumpster fire...and a natural calamity all rolled into one...Jameis can either lose or win a game for you at the drop of a hat but against an elite defense the Bucs don't have a chance in hell...RAVENS HUGE...

Dallas at Indianapolis -3...47...
Line has already started moving toward Dallas with more and more -2.5s showing up...I see Houston and Dallas as very similar teams...should be a significant let down factor from the Cowboys after that OT winner...strong lean to the COLTS here and would like them more in a teaser...

Detroit at Buffalo -2.5....38....
The Bills defense has been failing them of late...they were ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA before the JETS game and are sure to drop a few spots this week...Detroit ranked 29th in defensive DVOA and picked up a win vs the worst team in the league and this may have helped give value to this line...LOVING the Bills here to bounce back and CRUSH the Lions...might be the POW...

G.B. at Chicago -5.5....48....
The Bears are dominant at home going 6-1 with their only loss a game vs the Patriots that they should have won...Rodgers wins with his makeshift O Line but he won't get by with that this week vs the Bears...BEARS CRUSH the Pack this week...

Tennessee at NYG -2.5....43.5.....
These teams are very similar and will be running the ball a lot this week...not liking the spread but will LEAN hard to the UNDER here as RB Henry and RB Barkley should be eating up a lot of clock...looking for a defensive struggle to also help keep this under the number...

Washington at Jacksonville -7...36...
It's one thing to lose QBs and have offensive problems, it's a whole nuther thing to have your defense drop off the face of the earth...the Redskins D looked abysmal in that Giants game...the locker room is a dumpster fire with plenty of grease...this is a game the Jaguars should win BUT the UNDER must be played here...Redskins may not score in this game and Kessler has looked terrible in his two games...STRONG UNDER LEAN...

Arizona at Atlanta -8.5...44...
Falcons defense ranked worst in football...32nd in DVOA ..vs the Cardinals worst ranked offense in football...32nd in DVOA...Give me the Falcons in this game at home to cover the line...

Seattle -5.5 at S.F. ...44...
The Seahawks should have lost to the Vikings last night...yep, I can admit that even though I picked the Seahawks -3...So, what does that have to do with this week?..nothing at all......Kittle won't be getting away with that stuff this week and that 49ers win has built a bit of value into this line as it would have been -7 or -8 with a loss...give me the Seahawks to win and cover as my lean for now...

New England -3 at Pittsburgh ...49...
Only one sports book opened this line (at -1) at the normal time...that was Caesars in Vegas...line moved up to -4 then back to -3 now...but many books still don't have the line up due to the uncertain status of Big Ben and James Conner...IF...and that is a big IF...you can get a line, SMASH the HELL out of the Patriots here...even if Big Ben plays with those bruised ribs, he may get knocked out of the game...the Steelers secondary defense is TRASH...HAMMER THE PATS...is my very strong lean...might be a POM/POY type of game...

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9.5...53.5...
Crushing...that loss at Dallas is the kind that can suck the soul out of a team..and with all the injuries the Eagles have to be in that game at the end with the 3 turnover gifts the Cowboys gave them and then LOSE the game...CRUSHING...I just don't see them coming back from that...and the Rams need to win to get a shot at home field in the playoffs...Rams crush the Eagles here is my lean...
As usual, your thoughts appreciated...

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Posted: #2
Monday Night Football...

N.O. -6 at Carolina ...51.5
Teams move up and down through a season...regression is a real thing...but understand that Cam "squirrel" Newton has an injured shoulder that he is trying to play through...8 interceptions in his last 5 games and the ball he is throwing just looks BAD...his O Line is not helping either, he is under pressure almost all the time...not a good setup for one of the best teams in the league coming into your home....SAINTS HUGE...is my lean...

Holy crap...just realized I leaned toward 1 Dog and 15 Faves...

I must be sick ...ignore everything I just wrote please...


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Posted: #3
If I were you I'd be looking at Oak +3, Dal +3, Det +3, GB +6, Was +7, Ari +9, SF +6 to switch out some favs there. 
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Posted: #4
Agreed on Den, Min, Bal (big play for me too), NE, Rams.
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Posted: #5
Also I would like LAC +3.5, but being against a TNF home fav & a great offense has me mystified. Like you noted they don't have the defense to slow down KC as much as Bal did.
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Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

If I were you I'd be looking at Oak +3, Dal +3, Det +3, GB +6, Was +7, Ari +9, SF +6 to switch out some favs there. 

Oakland +3...
Meh...I guess it could happen...but Raiders on the road vs an improved Bengals defense and an improving QB that should have beat the Chargers...

Dallas +3...
Viable dog here if the letdown off the OT win vs the Eagles doesn't throw them off...Indy has shown they can be shutdown by inspired elite defensive performances and Dallas could certainly pull one of those out of their hats...

Detroit +3...
Hate the Lions this week...Bills defense had an uncharacteristic let down vs the JETS last week and Detroit beat literally the worst team in the league...the Lions are terrible...

G.Bay +6...
Maybe...maybe...I mean, if the Bears just completely lay an egg on defense...certainly Tribusky should be better with another week of healing on that shoulder...it's a pretty long shot though as the Bears should bring tons of pressure on Rodgers...

Washington +7
Do you know who they have starting at QB this week?  ... do you?...also all the Redskins injuries and defensive lapses...it would take winning the turnover battle 3-0 and even then...I just don't see where the scoring is coming from...guess they could score on defense and then hold Kessler to zero points...


Arizona +9...
Now this is a legitimate possible upset just because Atlanta sucks so bad on defense...might be able to see this one ...

S.F. +6...
Hard ...very hard for me to see this one...if I squint REALLY hard I could see them winning the turnover battle and squeaking this one out with a cover...I mean, the Cardinals do have a 12th ranked DVOA defense...the defense could win it for them...I don't think Seattle will let Kittle beat them this week...

Whew...I feel a bit better...might have a couple of dogs I can back...

We shall see how the week goes...


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Posted: #7
Who is starting qb for Baltimore? Why don’t you think Matt Ryan would be planning to crush Arizona in the dome even if there season is busted. Division game on deck, but I still think every win counts at least in their minds... 
 
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Posted: #8
raiders +3 is certainly a great value pick. bengels still have alot of injuries. Your getting 3. like the raiders who have shown they can put alot of points on the board.

Cowboys +3. you say they can certainly pull one out of their hats. well they did shut down the saints, so its no stretch by any means. 

you say the seahawks should have lost to the vikings? what game were you watching. if it wasn't for a couple of unforced errors, the seahawks would have blown them out. Seahawks dominated that game. never felt like minnesota were going to win that game
 
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Posted: #9
washington backup put up all the points. kessler is a sieve himself. Jaguars giving 7 to beat anybody is a stretch. take the td with the redskins. 
 
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Posted: #10
Josh Johnson at QB for Washington and he can actually score points unlike Sanchez. With Jacksonville's severe offensive issues +7 might be too big of a number to give Was.

49ers are much better at home and I think they might give Seattle offensive issues this time.

Green Bay is better now and 6 points is a lot to give them in this revenge divisional matchup.

Anyway, just suggestions to look at. I might not even be on these.
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sunster19:

raiders +3 is certainly a great value pick. bengels still have alot of injuries. Your getting 3. like the raiders who have shown they can put alot of points on the board.

Cowboys +3. you say they can certainly pull one out of their hats. well they did shut down the saints, so its no stretch by any means. 

you say the seahawks should have lost to the vikings? what game were you watching. if it wasn't for a couple of unforced errors, the seahawks would have blown them out. Seahawks dominated that game. never felt like minnesota were going to win that game

Also, I completely agree with the bolded!
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Posted: #12

New England minus whatever the points for me. Pittsburgh shall not rise again this year! Brady will feel as if he is in his 20s after he torches this pathetic Steelers' D.

Tom Brady lifetime is 11-2 (including playoffs) and they haven't lost to the Steelers since 2011. The other Pitts' victory was in Ben's rookie year in 2004 under Cowher when they ended the Pats' regular season win streak at 21 games. The Pats got their revenge later in the playoffs when they blew out the Steelers in Pittsburgh. 

Head coach clueless, D coordinator clueless, injured QB, kicker whose confidence is gone, no run offense, DBs who act like the Keystone Cops, Pitts leads the league in sacks but Brady will torch them when they blitz...

Belichik/Brady seem to always get up for Steeler games and the timing couldn't be more perfect considering their loss in Miami and their hopes for a second seed bye in the playoffs. 

 
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

New England minus whatever the points for me. Pittsburgh shall not rise again this year! Brady will feel as if he is in his 20s after he torches this pathetic Steelers' D.

Tom Brady lifetime is 11-2 (including playoffs) and they haven't lost to the Steelers since 2011. The other Pitts' victory was in Ben's rookie year in 2004 under Cowher when they ended the Pats' regular season win streak at 21 games. The Pats got their revenge later in the playoffs when they blew out the Steelers in Pittsburgh. 

Head coach clueless, D coordinator clueless, injured QB, kicker whose confidence is gone, no run offense, DBs who act like the Keystone Cops, Pitts leads the league in sacks but Brady will torch them when they blitz...

Belichik/Brady seem to always get up for Steeler games and the timing couldn't be more perfect considering their loss in Miami and their hopes for a second seed bye in the playoffs. 


Yep, NE all day.
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Posted: #14

Good stuff, keep it coming Smack

 
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Posted: #15
Great analysis, thanks! 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

New England minus whatever the points for me. Pittsburgh shall not rise again this year! Brady will feel as if he is in his 20s after he torches this pathetic Steelers' D.

Tom Brady lifetime is 11-2 (including playoffs) and they haven't lost to the Steelers since 2011. The other Pitts' victory was in Ben's rookie year in 2004 under Cowher when they ended the Pats' regular season win streak at 21 games. The Pats got their revenge later in the playoffs when they blew out the Steelers in Pittsburgh. 

Head coach clueless, D coordinator clueless, injured QB, kicker whose confidence is gone, no run offense, DBs who act like the Keystone Cops, Pitts leads the league in sacks but Brady will torch them when they blitz...

Belichik/Brady seem to always get up for Steeler games and the timing couldn't be more perfect considering their loss in Miami and their hopes for a second seed bye in the playoffs. 


Absolutely mah man!...

This might be the play of the month...

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Posted: #17
One thing about Lions - Bills. Patricia is very familiar with Buffalo so I like his team to be ready. 
 
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Official selection 1...

N.E. Patriots -1...to win $2000...MAX WAGER!

Locking this in now...I can't see any way that this doesn't work its way up to -3 by game time...not that it will matter...

Big Ben and his bruised ribs are one play away from being out for the game, if not the season...and his future is uncertain with probably retirement in my mind...

I'm going to go ahead and make this my play of the month...

Good luck gentlemen!

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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Official selection 1...

N.E. Patriots -1...to win $2000...MAX WAGER!

Locking this in now...I can't see any way that this doesn't work its way up to -3 by game time...not that it will matter...

Big Ben and his bruised ribs are one play away from being out for the game, if not the season...and his future is uncertain with probably retirement in my mind...

I'm going to go ahead and make this my play of the month...

Good luck gentlemen!


Right there with you 

As soon as my book releases the lines I'm hopping on NE.
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Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Official selection 1...N.E. Patriots -1...to win $2000...MAX WAGER!Locking this in now...I can't see any way that this doesn't work its way up to -3 by game time...not that it will matter...Big Ben and his bruised ribs are one play away from being out for the game, if not the season...and his future is uncertain with probably retirement in my mind...I'm going to go ahead and make this my play of the month...Good luck gentlemen!

peace_5an_light

 
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Posted: #21
I really like a lot of you leans..

Chiefs
Baltimore
Indy
Pats
Rams
Washington Under

I already had these plays on my board ..GL 
 
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Posted: #22
Of your sides, the ones I like the most are:

Bengals
Colts
Falcons
Seahawks
Pats

GL! 
 
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Posted: #23
 
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I'm seeing some people talking about high winds at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City for the game tonight...

Just checked the weather and forecast...

47 degrees and sunny today with 5 mph winds..tonight about the same...

Not sure where they are getting this stuff...

Leaning more to the Chiefs tonight than the O/U...

Here are the game notes for tonight...pulled off sbnation...

Three key players won’t play for the Chiefs—left guard Cam Erving and running back Spencer Ware are doubtful and wide receiver Sammy Watkins is out. The expectation is that Jeff Allen will fill in at left guard and Damien Williams will get the start at running back. Darrel Williams will be behind Damien and Charcandrick West should be active.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and safety Eric Berry are officially questionable, though I fully expect both players to play. ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting Hill is expected play. Schefter later added that so would Berry.

On the Chargers side, the key player listed as out is backup running back Austin Ekeler, and starting running back Melvin Gordon is a game-time decision. The NFL ought to think of a new designation, because there is no way the status of Hill and Berry should be the same as Gordon for this game. If Gordon can’t play, Justin Jackson, who has 60 snaps for the Chargers on the season, will start at running back.

I have no official play on the game as of now..

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Posted: #25

Great write up...love colts..pats... bengals... under giants game

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