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K's NFL MONDAY 10/27

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ATS Overall: 20-24-1

3-1 yesterday... 

Colts +4
The last time the Colts didn't come back the following week to win a game after losing by double digits the prior week was back in week 8 of the 2002 season.  As good as the Titans' D is, 4 of their 6 wins are against teams in the bottom ten in scoring offense.  Statistically, the best offense they've faced all year is Houston's.  The Colts always show up on Monday night; they are 7-0 since 2003.  Tony Ugoh should play and help solidify their O-line and there's no one better in the game at picking apart a defense than Peyton when he has the time.  Indy will be challenged by Tennessee's running game for sure but the Colts can afford to take their chances in man coverage and stack the line... you can't be too afraid of Kerry Collins' 56% completion percentage or his QB rating of 74.4.  I like the Colts straight up and may even take Indy on the ML at +170.  At 3-3, this game means a whole lot more to the Colts than the Titans.  Small lean on the over as well.

 
 
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You a smart man until COLLEGE HOOPS HAHA JK BUD!! BOL to you tomorrow!!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Bird4332:

You a smart man until COLLEGE HOOPS HAHA JK BUD!! BOL to you tomorrow!!

How are the Sycamore's gonna be this year bud?  A little bit of a drop off for Drake?

Hardwood time is around the corner!
 
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Posted: #5
couldn't agree more, nice write up.
 
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In addendum:

Look at the line and tell me how a 3-3 team on the road who lost by 20 the prior week is only a 4 pt dog to a team that's 6-0 SU and ATS?

Exactly.

Go Colts. 
 
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Have to agree bud!  With the Titans being undefeated at home, and Colts looking like they did last week, EVERYONE is looking at TN!  Colts and maybe Over are my lean!  Reason I say Over is because if not, Colts lose!  TN will have to score on Indy's D!  I think Manning comes out firing!
 
 
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Posted: #9
Looks good buddy.........totally agree with you points
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by special__k:

The last time the Colts didn't come back the following week to win a game after losing by double digits the prior week was back in week 8 of the 2002 season.  As good as the Titans' D is, 4 of their 6 wins are against teams in the bottom ten in scoring offense.  Statistically, the best offense they've faced all year is Houston's.


The Colts that won after a double digits loss had Healthy Peyton, Harrison in Prime, and Edge or Addai. Titans beat Jac, Hou, and Min at home. Yes, Houston is the only "respectable" offense of the bunch, but Jacksonville and Minnesota aren't exactly horrible teams. Indy has indeed won 7-0 MNFs, but they never played as underdogs.

I respect your findings and just might go with Indy.

I just wanted to toss a few bones.

WIth you on the Under, but too risky no?

 
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Posted: #11
I mean over...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by special__k:


How are the Sycamore's gonna be this year bud?  A little bit of a drop off for Drake?

Hardwood time is around the corner!



Sycamore have hit the bottom of the barrell! Nothing special coming in. 2 keys players have been kicked off the team. There leading scorer and best defensive player! It will be another long ride for these boys. The only thing they have going for them is there coaching.

As for drake IMO should have another great season. Losing 3 great players mainly in there point guard and Korver as they were the key ingredient for them down the stretch IMO. Could be the only thing that hurts them. Returning  8 lettermen will only help though. They do have 2 All Missouri Valley Conf. players back and a 2 new editions at the point and shooting guard in Juco Transfers. I believe the point guard name is Stanley will have some big shoes to fill but he was in the top 10 nationally in assist/TO ratio. They say this kid is a real playmaker. The shoot guard is deadly as they come from what i have been hearing. These boys will be deadly once again from behind the peremiter so all in all they should have another great season but there biggest downfall IMO will depend on there guard play.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by xmaynardx:



The Colts that won after a double digits loss had Healthy Peyton, Harrison in Prime, and Edge or Addai. Titans beat Jac, Hou, and Min at home. Yes, Houston is the only "respectable" offense of the bunch, but Jacksonville and Minnesota aren't exactly horrible teams. Indy has indeed won 7-0 MNFs, but they never played as underdogs.

I respect your findings and just might go with Indy.

I just wanted to toss a few bones.

WIth you on the Under, but too risky no?


Peyton at 50% is still better than 90% of the league IMO... A healthy Harrison and a healthy Reggie Wayne is a virtual trade off and yes, no Addai or Edge but Rhodes has been in this system for many years and he will make the plays when necessary (look at his 20 carry, 2 TD effort last week.)  Don't forget about Dallas Clark or Anthony Gonzalez... point being, Indy has far more weapons than any squad Tennessee has faced this year.  Also consider the point spread and how undervalued it is; Colts lost by 20 to Green Bay, are on the road, and are only 4 pt dogs to the Titans, the only undefeated team in the NFL?  This game means more to a 3-3 team fighting for a division title and a potential playoff spot.  You will see the urgency tomorrow night, I guarantee it.

BOL in your decision.
 
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Posted: #14
Any chance of getting the Colts +4.5 or better before game time?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by manterro:

Any chance of getting the Colts +4.5 or better before game time?

I think it'll drop to 3.5 to be honest with you... can't see it going the other way.  It opened at -3 (-125) and quickly moved to -4 in 24 hrs after early public interest.  If it drops down to -3.5 again with at least 60% on Tenn, I may add another unit.
 
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Posted: #16
BOL special...on indy myself...some of your reasoning are similar to my write-up
 
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Quote Originally Posted by special__k:

In addendum:

Look at the line and tell me how a 3-3 team on the road who lost by 20 the prior week is only a 4 pt dog to a team that's 6-0 SU and ATS?

Exactly.

Go Colts. 
beacause they know clowns like you will bet the colts anyway,,i will be on the titans brother, i can't bet a soft ass colts team against any physical team especially on the road and by the way there is someone better at picking apart defenses than peyton,but he is out for the year
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by iron_mike:

beacause they know clowns like you will bet the colts anyway,,i will be on the titans brother, i can't bet a soft ass colts team against any physical team especially on the road and by the way there is someone better at picking apart defenses than peyton,but he is out for the year

Does it pain you to give a New Englander props?   Will gladly go against the grain in this one.  If Tennessee wins, they'll have to earn it... Colts have plenty of motivation to come out and set the field on fire.
At least one of us will win.  BOL bro.    
 
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i am actually a big brady fan one of the best i have ever seen,imo much better than manning..manning loses games his team was supposed to win{2home afc championship games} while brady has won games his team is supposed to lose{the whole 2001 post season}  anyway good luck tomorrow,i might take the titans on the ml if it comes down some
 
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Posted: #20
gl bro tenn my team but this will be a dogfight
 
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Haven't made a decision on tonight's game, but I think Vegas has priced this game based on the fact that the Titans are not a public team, and Indy still is.
 
Titans win with defense,  running game (split between 2), a QB who "manages the game" (ugh---heard that expression about 50000 times too many), very tough o-line, and a strong kicking game.  So all the fantasy publicos have 2 from Tenn on their fantasy team----Bironas and the defense.
 
Indy is loaded with big name offensive players that are all on fantasy football teams the world over, but their offensive line is not very good.
 
 
 
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Betting %'s on side seem pretty well balanced. 53/47 (%) ATS favoring Titans. 70% ML on Colts (usually more ML on short dogs anyway) and 63% of Parlays on Colts as well.  No real Tells there; maybe a whisper in late line mvmts (we'll wait and see)
 
There is a difinative pub. lean twrd the Over w/78% on Over, line dropped from 42 to 40. 80% on 1half over.
 
I have Colts (+10.5) for last of 4 tm Teaser (1/2 unit to win 1.5)... may hedge and go for a middle. Will probly book that 1st H under; may wait for HT to look for the side (Tenn) hedge.
 
 
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Posted: #23
how many times have you seen a line of 4 and the team giving wins. There is a reason they want you to take the 4 it is over the field goal. Colts are not the same team look around the league some teams fall off. They don't just come back because they HAVE TO WIN!. Some thing is wrong with the colts this year. Tenn is clicking.I'll take a good D any day over a used to be good offendsive team.
 
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Posted: #24
agree this line sure in the hell looks fishy bol bud
 
 
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Posted: #25
on the Titans myself but I locked that up yesterday. The more I look at it the line looks suspicious so I'm also teasing the game

Colts +10
Over 34

GL with your play


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