First off…is this total worth playing is the question….
Ten reasons why to
stay away from the sides in this one….
1)
Pittsburgh is the better team, but SF has an
unfair strategic advantage in this which could off set this game (harbaugh to
harbaugh info sharing) the Ravens know
Pitt better than any team—Ravens played Steelers 9 times in the last 39 months,
and NO ONE wants Pitt to lose tonight more than the Ravens. Harbaugh knows pitts strengths and
weaknesses.
2)
Ben’s health.
Will he be able to be close to 100%?
Will he be knocked out of the game early/late?
The total…. In light of a season of injuries (as always the
case this time of year), we will look with particular interest at the last 3
games of each team to compare:
In SF’s last 3,
they played the (ranked in total yards against) the #20th (AZ), the
# 21 (STL), and the #2 (BALT) Defenses. In
these games they went 1-2 for a combined total score of 51-37. These opponents were ranked (in total yards)
as #15 (BALT), #30th (STL, and #22 (AZ) in total offense. Lets now combine the averages of their
opponents: BALT 8.5, STL 25.5, and AZ
21. For a total opponent competitive quotient
of 18.3, or…pretty weak opponent vs SF’s
average (O and D rankings) of 14.5.
In Pitt’s last 3,
they played the (ranked in total yards…ok, you get it I will stop spelling it
out) the # 14 (Cleveland), the # 6 (Cincy), and the # 16 (KC) ranked
defenses. In these games Pitt went 3-0
for a combined score of 62-19. These
opponents were ranked (offensively) #29(Cleveland), #23 (Cincy), and #27
(KC). Combined averages of Cleveland
21.5, Cincy 14.5, and 21.5 for KC… average competitiveness quotient of 19.16 in
comparison to Pitts average quotient of 6.5.
Let’s tie that all
together here…
Pitts competitive quotient is 6.5, and SF’s is 14.5
Pitt went 3-0 vs C.Q. averages of 19.6 for a combined 62-19
score
SF’s went 1-2 vs C.Q. averages of 18.3 for a combined 51-37
score.
NOTE: SF faced top 10 D’s of Philly, Cincy, and
Baltimore. They were 2-1 in those games
for a combined score 43 – 47 (an averages game score of 14.3 to 15.7)
Pitt has face top
10 D’s: Balt, Houston,
Jacksonville, Baltimore 2, Cincy, and
Cincy 2. They are 3-3 in those games for a combined score of
113-112 (one of those games being the
Baltimore 1 game where 35 pts were scored)
for an average score of 18.8 – 18.6.
What have we learned from this? Pitt is the far better defense (hard to take
the Baltimore 1 game into account being the ‘odd game of the bunch’.. if you
take that game away you have a record of 3-2 @ 21.2 to 15.4 score.
San Fran Offense:
Frank Gore is averaging 4.5 ypc for the season, but going against the
top 10 run D’s this season (balt/dallas) he ran 34 times for 86 yards (ave of
2.5 ypc) , and he will be going against the best 2nd best run D he
has faced all season. San Fran went 1-2
in the last 3 while running the ball 42% of the time—down from their 49% over
the season. My thought is that Gore’s
knees are getting worse and SF has had to rely on the passing of Alex
Smith. San Fran is going to try to establish
the run early and then set the pitt D off balance and then go to the passing
game (vs pitts #1 ranked pass D)
Pitts offense: SF’s
19th ranked pass D’s only chance is if Ben is not healthy enough
to..well….be Ben. Ben is listed as a
gametime decision…BS… he will start.
Pitt will rack up
Summary: SF is
overrated…PERIOD. Ben will start, but
how effective will he be. East coast
teams traveling to west coast locations tend to be more successful that the
opposite. The Harbaugh to Harbaugh intel
should be an advantage for SF, but I am betting Tomlin is aware of this and is
smart enough to offset this advantage using the element of surprise on a few
occasions. Alex Smith is going against the
toughest D he has ever played against minus James Harrison (Roger Goodell is an
asshole). Looks like Woodley will play,
so pitt should still be able to hit/hurry/sack Smith and cause chaos in SF
backfield. Gore will be ineffective, but
might get 1 or 2 good runs due to the extended week and extra knee
treatments. This is still going to be
Alex smith vs Pitts pass D, and I don’t see that as coming out very good for
Smith. The real question is… can Ben be
Ben tonight? If so, they destroy SF, if not,
it will be close. The line movements vs
public play line action has me moving to the Over, which is what I will go
with. Betting on Ben being the superman
we have seen for years and putting up a gutsy performance with the division
title on the line.
Pitt/SF over 18 first half
Pitt +1.5 first half
Pitt/SF over 37 game
BoL 
Its not about Big BEN anymore, Steeler is missing the Center, WR Sanders and Suspened Harrison....Thats alot , without starting center, we gonna have snap problem and blocking problem.
SF-3 looking good
Established in 1995,
Keep it up!
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