Johnson's NFL Predictions 2012

EarthWake… post 17 was a response to you. I forgot to add your name to the top of it. You probably know that, but I don’t want to seem disrespectful towards you.

Well… CMJ, I am one of the very few that like the Browns coach, FG kicker, defense and surprisingly the Browns offense. I think Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are the real deal (healthy). I like the all # 2’s WR core, the young offensive line, and what they’ve done for the future of their TE position. I don’t plan on betting on them early (subject to change), but I’m leaning towards betting on them mid way into the season if what I’ve studied about them pans out.

CMJ, Dallas had never been good on paper or on the field the last 17 years. They beat the Eagles 3-times one-year and that was the best accomplishment they’ve had in 17 years. Dallas has a beast-receiving core, a top 10 defense, but a weak o-line and injuries. I don’t know if they will be a 4 win team or a 10 win team with all those injuries and the offensive line.

The one thing I do know is that Dallas has a good enough team to beat the Giants. I’m going to say something that may shock the hell out of you, CMJ. Ready for it, I got the Giants possibly finishing third or dead last in the NFC east. I think the Giants are weak and vulnerable this year. The Redskins will struggle on the road, but at home, they will be tough to beat.

The Eagles will win the NFC East no matter who is at QB. They are loaded from top to bottom. I hate to say this, but I think the Eagles are going to fly all over the field on offense and defense in a dominant fashion this season. I’ve looked at the Eagles depth chart and I don’t see any weaknesses. The only reason they didn’t make the playoffs last year was fluky plays and tipped balls.

If Vick goes down, I think he loses his starting spot to Foles. Then, Foles steps right in and runs the offense with ease. I don’t think there is an offense with more speed than the Eagles. As a Cowboys fan, I’m afraid of the Redskins and Eagles, not the Giants.

I have the Raiders winning on the road. I don’t see them traveling to AZ and beating the Cards defense. I can’t see them beating Luck and the Colts on the road. The Jets suck on offense, but they don’t suck that bad to where they will lose to Tannehill. I expect him to shit the bed when he goes up against that defense.

I have the Bills offense lighting up the scoreboard against that 25th ranked pass defense and I have Seattle (this team is the real deal) just stomping the dolphins. The Dolphins have a “Joke” as a head coach and Tannehill is going to finish the season, if he truly is the future, so I expect him to learn how to play in the league the hard way.

I could be wrong, which I am wrong a lot, but I see that they will be lucky to win four games. I will say this… if I’m wrong I will come on here and humbly bow to you.

Bills will go 10-6

Mario Williams is a beast but he is the third best player on that line. Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus are better than him. That line should produce 35+ sacks.

I don’t see myself betting for or against your team very much this season, so I wish you and your dolphins team the BOL.

i thought your choice to rate the Titans ahead of the Texans was an interesting one. amazing how they went 9-7 very quietly

Redskins could certainly be a sneaky team...but I always side with veteran QB's over unknown rookies...and with Romo, Vick, and Manning in the East, I gotta put RG3 lower

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 12-4  (15-1 in 2011)

Aaron Rodgers will fall back a little bit...and their running back situation isn't phenomenal.  Biggest question is the same question that the Patriots have...can the defense provide enough stops to give the offense the chance to put up points?  Charles Woodson isn't getting younger...their safeties are average at best...and their defensive line outside of Raji isn't incredible.  The Lions have a good offense, the Bears and Vikings are both much improved on that side of the ball.  I see a 6-2 division record, and a 6-2 non-division record.

Detroit Lions  10-6  (10-6 in 2011)

Due to the off the field issues and suspensions for this team I can't bring them up a win.  Still a legitimate playoff team, but lacking the experience to make a deep push into the playoffs.  I would like to see a true #1 running back emerge from this team to take a lot of the pressure off of Stafford and Megatron.  Their defensive secondary isn't wonderful either, so the Packers will give them trouble, and possibly the Bears as well now with Brandon Marshall.  I like this team, but I'm not fully on the bandwagon yet.

Chicago Bears  9-7  (8-8 in 2011)

Offense is better, and in an offensively driven league, that will mean an improvement in the record as well.  I'm just not a huge fan of Jay Cutler, and although having a weapon like Marshall at the edge and a possibly future weapon with Alshon Jeffrey will help, I'm not sure they are a playoff level team this year. They have a great defense once again, which will keep them in a ton of games.  But their defensive tackles aren't great, Urlacher is getting old, and you can rush the ball against them.

Minnesota Vikings  4-12  (3-13 in 2011)

Another one win improvement given out.  A lot of people might give them a few more wins, but I want to see how the Christian Ponder experiment works out.  Also, if Peterson has lost a step with the injury last season.  Matt Kalil should be able to step right in and help give Ponder time to throw to the receivers...who are decent, nothing spectacular.  Their defense is solid once again with Henderson, Allen, Williams, and Winfield.  I just have a feeling they will be losing quite a few close games.

I think the Bills will be a force this year. I see 10-6 

Thanks for the insight CMJ 

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons  9-7  (10-6 in 2011)

With the suspensions of the Saints, I feel as though the Falcons are the best team in this division.  A make or break year for Matt Ryan and Michael Turner.  Great receivers and great depth.  A very solid offensive line.  Defensive line might be a little suspect, but with the addition of Asante Samuel it should seriously help.  The reason I'm dropping them down a win is the fact that they have to play the NFC East this season, and IMO they are a better division.

New Orleans Saints 8-8  (13-3 in 2011)

Suspensions were big, and they will seriously hurt this defense.  They weren't an extremely solid defense to begin with...just barely above average.  Ellis and Smith are decent on the defensive line...and Greer and Jenkins are probably their best secondary players.  But much like the Falcons, going up against the solid offenses throughout the NFC East will kill this team.

Obviously the third team there is the Carolina Panthers...and I predicted 7-9

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers  10-6  (13-3 in 2011)

Just don't see them capturing the lightning in a bottle type of season that they had last year.  First of all teams are not going to take them lightly which might have happened at the start of last season.  Second of all...their offense brought in some new players, but did they really improve?  Last season they had the perfect offense for this type of team...ground and pound and don't let Alex Smith make mistakes.  Now with Manningham and Moss they are putting Smith in a position to want to throw the ball more. 

They still have the best defense in the league however, and in a not so great division, that will be good enough to make it back to the playoffs for the second straight year.  I just don't think this team is 13 wins good this season.

Seattle Seahawks 7-9  (7-9 in 2011)

Whether Flynn or Wilson is playing, I can't bump them up any wins simply because their offensive line isn't fantastic (something that I feel you need to have with an inexperienced QB) and the weapons on the outside are also less than stellar.  The defense is good enough to make some plays, and will certainly keep this team in a lot of games.  I just don't think Pete Carroll has what it takes to build a successful NFL team.  Still..the Seahawks will be an interesting team to watch this season.

Arizona Cardinals 6-10  (8-8 in 2011)

Too many questions at quarterback, and none of them are the questions that you want to be asking.  Neither John Skelton or Kevin Kolb give this team enough of a chance to be successful this season...especially going up against the defenses in Seattle and San Fran.  They have their big play guy with Fitzgerald, and no doubt he will put up numbers...but they have still failed to address the running back situation.  I do like their defense...I just see them losing a lot of 20-14 type of games.

St. Louis Rams  4-12  (2-14 in 2011)

I really didn't even want to put them this high, but I'll be generous.  This is the worst team in the league...and by a wide margin in my mind.  They had the #2 pick and traded it when they should have taken someone to improve this team.  Just breaking it down by position...

QB Sam Bradford  -  C-
RB Steven Jackson  -  B+
WR Amendola/Gibson/Quick   -   C-
TE  Kendricks  -  D
OL  Saffold/Ojinnaka/Wells/Dahl/Richardson  -  C
DL  Long/Brockers/Langford/Quinn -  B
LB  Dunbar/Lauranaitis/Haggan  -  C-
CB  Finnegan/Jenkins  -  B
S  Stewart/Mikell   -  C

Once again...that's being generous.  Even their schedule isn't kind giving them home games against New England, Green Bay, the Jets, and San Fran (division game).  They have to go TO BUFFALO in December.  Just not a good team.

NFC PLAYOFFS

1.  Green Bay Packers  12-4
2.  New York Giants  11-5
3.  San Francisco 49ers  10-6
4.  Atlanta Falcons 9-7
5.  Dallas Cowboys  10-6
6.  Detroit Lions  10-6


Wild Card Round

#3  49ers  def.  #6  Lions
#5  Cowboys   def.  #4  Falcons

Divisional Round

#1  Green Bay   def.  #5  Dallas
#3  49ers   def.  #2  Giants

NFC Championship

#1  Green Bay  def.  #3  49ers

SUPER BOWL


New England Patriots  def.  Green Packers   35-31


Last season they were the two best teams, and heading into this season they are the two best teams.  Great coaching, solid at every position.  Big game experience.  Legitimate home field advantage.  I look at the AFC and don't see anyone that can withstand the Patriots offense for four quarters (Ravens and Steelers come close).  Same thing with the NFC, but the Packers have some stiffer competition with the Cowboys, Giants, Lions, and Niners. 

AWARDS

MVP -  Tom Brady

OPY  -  Arian Foster

DPY  -  Jared Allen

ORY  -  Andrew Luck

DRY  -  Luke Kuechly

Coach of the Year  -  Bill Belichick

Most Passing Yards  -  Matthew Stafford  4,940

Most Passing TD's   -   Tom Brady   45

Most INT's thrown  -  Brandon Weeden (if he plays all year)  23

Most Rushing Yards   -   Arian Foster   1,675

Most Receiving Yards   -   Calvin Johnson   1,400

Most Receptions   -   Rob Gronkowski  107

Most Sacks   -   Jared Allen  23.5

Most Interceptions   -   Brandon Browner  8

BEST ATS RECORD:   Minnesota Vikings  (I see them getting a lot of beneficial spreads against the likes of GB and DET)

WORST ATS RECORD:  NY Jets  (Public perception still too high on this team, and the Teblow effect)

MOST OVERS:  Detroit Lions  (Combo of weak defense and great offense)

MOST UNDERS:  St. Louis Rams  (Terrible, terrible, terrible offense)

I almost agree with your analysis of the NFC north and NFC west. I have the Lions actually winning the division, for the first time in around 20 years, and the Seahawks finishing 9-7.

I got the 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Lions, Seahawks, Redskins, Eagles, and Cowboys (offensive line TBD) having a great competitive season. Finally, the saying “Any Given Sunday” is actually true. The dominance of the same teams is over.

I got the Steelers, Saints, Jets, Giants, Patriots, and Packers all having a tough year, compared to what they usually do every season. These teams are beatable right now. The NFL playing field is leveling out. It’s going to be a wild and unpredictable season this year.

I don't see the Packers going any worse than 13-3.

Yeah I knew the Dolphins wouldn't be that bad