The question is now - does this line continue to climb? And if it does go past -10, is the middle opportunity worth it?
5 units are down on Jets - 9
It is now Jets -10.
If it goes Jets -10.5 or higher, should 5 units go down on the Bengals and hope for a 10 point win?
It definitely climbs, especially if the Pats lock up the game at 1. If you like middles go right ahead as it will have a middling chance at a key # of 10. I'm not big on middling and my bet on the Jets will be sizable enough to disallow me the aforementioned opportunity.
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Quote Originally Posted by Schmohawk:
The question is now - does this line continue to climb? And if it does go past -10, is the middle opportunity worth it?
5 units are down on Jets - 9
It is now Jets -10.
If it goes Jets -10.5 or higher, should 5 units go down on the Bengals and hope for a 10 point win?
It definitely climbs, especially if the Pats lock up the game at 1. If you like middles go right ahead as it will have a middling chance at a key # of 10. I'm not big on middling and my bet on the Jets will be sizable enough to disallow me the aforementioned opportunity.
The Jets will be in the same exact spot they were a couple of yrs ago when they traveled to Oakland, won that game, to then just come right back and play the same team. And lose.
Agree with the playbook quote as well. Think the under has to be looked at in this game since the weather and this next week game are going to play a part. At least 2 missed Fg's
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The Jets will be in the same exact spot they were a couple of yrs ago when they traveled to Oakland, won that game, to then just come right back and play the same team. And lose.
Agree with the playbook quote as well. Think the under has to be looked at in this game since the weather and this next week game are going to play a part. At least 2 missed Fg's
The Jets will be in the same exact spot they were a couple of yrs ago when they traveled to Oakland, won that game, to then just come right back and play the same team. And lose.
Agree with the playbook quote as well. Think the under has to be looked at in this game since the weather and this next week game are going to play a part. At least 2 missed Fg's
I remember the Oakland game well...jets always (outside of this year) get embarrassed in those cross-country trips...Under? I'm not so sure...it was mighty cold yesterday for the Giants in a must-win (although the panthers were playing spoiler there) and in that 2002 vs. GB as i mentioned...both were way over the totals...i don't play 'em anyway so my advice on that topic should be taken with a grain of salt...
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Quote Originally Posted by bracks:
The Jets will be in the same exact spot they were a couple of yrs ago when they traveled to Oakland, won that game, to then just come right back and play the same team. And lose.
Agree with the playbook quote as well. Think the under has to be looked at in this game since the weather and this next week game are going to play a part. At least 2 missed Fg's
I remember the Oakland game well...jets always (outside of this year) get embarrassed in those cross-country trips...Under? I'm not so sure...it was mighty cold yesterday for the Giants in a must-win (although the panthers were playing spoiler there) and in that 2002 vs. GB as i mentioned...both were way over the totals...i don't play 'em anyway so my advice on that topic should be taken with a grain of salt...
If the Bengals go into this game with a defeatist attitude (and I think they will) they won't be able to stop it when the Jets lead reaches 10. You can't just turn that attitude on and off. I am looking at a 24-7 to 24-10 Jets win. Agree that they want to lull the Jets into a sense of complacency for the playoff game. I wonder how much was made on the Jets ML yesterday by those in the know that Colts were going to pull their first line players in the third quarter? Funny things happen in the last two games of the season. Good luck on your plays.
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If the Bengals go into this game with a defeatist attitude (and I think they will) they won't be able to stop it when the Jets lead reaches 10. You can't just turn that attitude on and off. I am looking at a 24-7 to 24-10 Jets win. Agree that they want to lull the Jets into a sense of complacency for the playoff game. I wonder how much was made on the Jets ML yesterday by those in the know that Colts were going to pull their first line players in the third quarter? Funny things happen in the last two games of the season. Good luck on your plays.
Are the Pats expected to play all of their starters? Do they still anything to play for?
I think they lose regardless of who they play, I was just curious.
Yes, the Pats still must win and will play their starters (then again who knows? maybe they'll attempt to dump as well to attempt to get the Jets...with all that belichick pride, i highly doubt it) to lock up their seed but even that may not do it...here's a more detailed excerpt on their playoff situation:
If New England and Cincinnati remain tied after regular-season play, their first tiebreaker would be based on strength of victory since they’ll have identical conference records (7-4 as of Sunday), as well as records against common opponents (2-2 as of Sunday, with common opponents on the slate in Week 17, too). Since the ensuing tiebreakers (strength of victory, strength of schedule, etc.) rely on the outcomes of so many other games, and there are at least six teams alive in the race for the fifth and sixth seeds, it’s nearly impossible to project who the Patriots’ first-round opponent could be.
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Quote Originally Posted by Schmohawk:
Are the Pats expected to play all of their starters? Do they still anything to play for?
I think they lose regardless of who they play, I was just curious.
Yes, the Pats still must win and will play their starters (then again who knows? maybe they'll attempt to dump as well to attempt to get the Jets...with all that belichick pride, i highly doubt it) to lock up their seed but even that may not do it...here's a more detailed excerpt on their playoff situation:
If New England and Cincinnati remain tied after regular-season play, their first tiebreaker would be based on strength of victory since they’ll have identical conference records (7-4 as of Sunday), as well as records against common opponents (2-2 as of Sunday, with common opponents on the slate in Week 17, too). Since the ensuing tiebreakers (strength of victory, strength of schedule, etc.) rely on the outcomes of so many other games, and there are at least six teams alive in the race for the fifth and sixth seeds, it’s nearly impossible to project who the Patriots’ first-round opponent could be.
If the Bengals go into this game with a defeatist attitude (and I think they will) they won't be able to stop it when the Jets lead reaches 10. You can't just turn that attitude on and off. I am looking at a 24-7 to 24-10 Jets win. Agree that they want to lull the Jets into a sense of complacency for the playoff game. I wonder how much was made on the Jets ML yesterday by those in the know that Colts were going to pull their first line players in the third quarter? Funny things happen in the last two games of the season. Good luck on your plays.
I see your point on the Jets ML but I doubt anyone knew exactly when the plug was gonna be pulled, even the coach. Although he planned to remove Manning, he was sure to keep him in the game UNTIL THE COLTS HAD THE LEAD, which Manning got back and then he was pulled. That wasn't scripted. It was mainly to allow Manning to leave with his head held high even though he was immediately sulking on the sidelines for being pulled.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ap1Bfreetorun:
If the Bengals go into this game with a defeatist attitude (and I think they will) they won't be able to stop it when the Jets lead reaches 10. You can't just turn that attitude on and off. I am looking at a 24-7 to 24-10 Jets win. Agree that they want to lull the Jets into a sense of complacency for the playoff game. I wonder how much was made on the Jets ML yesterday by those in the know that Colts were going to pull their first line players in the third quarter? Funny things happen in the last two games of the season. Good luck on your plays.
I see your point on the Jets ML but I doubt anyone knew exactly when the plug was gonna be pulled, even the coach. Although he planned to remove Manning, he was sure to keep him in the game UNTIL THE COLTS HAD THE LEAD, which Manning got back and then he was pulled. That wasn't scripted. It was mainly to allow Manning to leave with his head held high even though he was immediately sulking on the sidelines for being pulled.
The Steelers need the Bengals to win and go figure, they have almost nothing to play for. And if they do, it means that NE lost, and the Steelers need them to win.
Then the Steelers need Baltimore to lose in a must win situation vs the Raiders (they don't need all this) who are just a bad football team with Frye at the helm. It's just not lining up for the Steelers. That's what happens when you play like shit for five straight weeks...
For those that care, I'll post the three different scenarios that the Steelers need to secure a playoff spot.
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The Steelers need the Bengals to win and go figure, they have almost nothing to play for. And if they do, it means that NE lost, and the Steelers need them to win.
Then the Steelers need Baltimore to lose in a must win situation vs the Raiders (they don't need all this) who are just a bad football team with Frye at the helm. It's just not lining up for the Steelers. That's what happens when you play like shit for five straight weeks...
For those that care, I'll post the three different scenarios that the Steelers need to secure a playoff spot.
scalabrine - besides hammering the jets -9 what are your thoughts on throwing the jets in every single teaser i play this week?
love the write up
Teasers are called 'teasers' for a reason. Amazingly, the books literally mock the bettor, using the literal word to serve as a homograph at first blush. But after the bankroll disappears, it is clear, the phrase "I lost my teaser" serves as an example of double entendre. There is very rarely an opportunity in which two games spreads can be lowered/added to for a teaser bet imo.
Teasers
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Quote Originally Posted by ILL:
scalabrine - besides hammering the jets -9 what are your thoughts on throwing the jets in every single teaser i play this week?
love the write up
Teasers are called 'teasers' for a reason. Amazingly, the books literally mock the bettor, using the literal word to serve as a homograph at first blush. But after the bankroll disappears, it is clear, the phrase "I lost my teaser" serves as an example of double entendre. There is very rarely an opportunity in which two games spreads can be lowered/added to for a teaser bet imo.
Yes, the Pats still must win and will play their starters (then again who knows? maybe they'll attempt to dump as well to attempt to get the Jets...with all that belichick pride, i highly doubt it) to lock up their seed but even that may not do it...here's a more detailed excerpt on their playoff situation:
If New England and Cincinnati remain tied after regular-season play, their first tiebreaker would be based on strength of victory since they’ll have identical conference records (7-4 as of Sunday), as well as records against common opponents (2-2 as of Sunday, with common opponents on the slate in Week 17, too). Since the ensuing tiebreakers (strength of victory, strength of schedule, etc.) rely on the outcomes of so many other games, and there are at least six teams alive in the race for the fifth and sixth seeds, it’s nearly impossible to project who the Patriots’ first-round opponent could be.
Then why is the line Houston -7.5? That line doesn't make sense unless NE was planning on sitting their players.
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Yes, the Pats still must win and will play their starters (then again who knows? maybe they'll attempt to dump as well to attempt to get the Jets...with all that belichick pride, i highly doubt it) to lock up their seed but even that may not do it...here's a more detailed excerpt on their playoff situation:
If New England and Cincinnati remain tied after regular-season play, their first tiebreaker would be based on strength of victory since they’ll have identical conference records (7-4 as of Sunday), as well as records against common opponents (2-2 as of Sunday, with common opponents on the slate in Week 17, too). Since the ensuing tiebreakers (strength of victory, strength of schedule, etc.) rely on the outcomes of so many other games, and there are at least six teams alive in the race for the fifth and sixth seeds, it’s nearly impossible to project who the Patriots’ first-round opponent could be.
Then why is the line Houston -7.5? That line doesn't make sense unless NE was planning on sitting their players.
The Steelers need the Bengals to win and go figure, they have almost nothing to play for. And if they do, it means that NE lost, and the Steelers need them to win.
Then the Steelers need Baltimore to lose in a must win situation vs the Raiders (they don't need all this) who are just a bad football team with Frye at the helm. It's just not lining up for the Steelers. That's what happens when you play like shit for five straight weeks...
For those that care, I'll post the three different scenarios that the Steelers need to secure a playoff spot.
I'll do it for ya...
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) Win (@ MIA) + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie 2) Win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie 3) Win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
Gotta love the 'or tie' bit as though that's 'extra hope' for the desperate team....like that has EVER happened on the last day of the season to determine a playoff spot
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Quote Originally Posted by SteelCash:
The Steelers need the Bengals to win and go figure, they have almost nothing to play for. And if they do, it means that NE lost, and the Steelers need them to win.
Then the Steelers need Baltimore to lose in a must win situation vs the Raiders (they don't need all this) who are just a bad football team with Frye at the helm. It's just not lining up for the Steelers. That's what happens when you play like shit for five straight weeks...
For those that care, I'll post the three different scenarios that the Steelers need to secure a playoff spot.
I'll do it for ya...
Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:
1) Win (@ MIA) + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie 2) Win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie 3) Win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
Gotta love the 'or tie' bit as though that's 'extra hope' for the desperate team....like that has EVER happened on the last day of the season to determine a playoff spot
Then why is the line Houston -7.5? That line doesn't make sense unless NE was planning on sitting their players.
wow...it appears they will be resting some players...everyone wants to play the Jets apparently...
The New England Patriots are 10-5 and have won the AFC East. Other than what seed they will be in the playoffs -- three or four -- the Patriots have nothing to play for in this Sunday's game at the Houston Texans. But Tom Brady said in a radio interview Monday that he would prefer to play the whole game. "The way our team is, we had a good week this week. We had probably our best week in a long time, and ... I think it would be great to see if we can carry that over again, if we can kind of put together another good week," Brady said. Brady mentioned that players who need some rest to get over their injuries will probably be held out, but that he would like to see the team's "healthy" players give it their all against Houston. Of course, Brady knows that decision isn't his to make. "We don't sit around and take votes of what we're going to do," he said. "It's a one-man show,"
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Quote Originally Posted by Schmohawk:
Then why is the line Houston -7.5? That line doesn't make sense unless NE was planning on sitting their players.
wow...it appears they will be resting some players...everyone wants to play the Jets apparently...
The New England Patriots are 10-5 and have won the AFC East. Other than what seed they will be in the playoffs -- three or four -- the Patriots have nothing to play for in this Sunday's game at the Houston Texans. But Tom Brady said in a radio interview Monday that he would prefer to play the whole game. "The way our team is, we had a good week this week. We had probably our best week in a long time, and ... I think it would be great to see if we can carry that over again, if we can kind of put together another good week," Brady said. Brady mentioned that players who need some rest to get over their injuries will probably be held out, but that he would like to see the team's "healthy" players give it their all against Houston. Of course, Brady knows that decision isn't his to make. "We don't sit around and take votes of what we're going to do," he said. "It's a one-man show,"
Scalabrine: One last question I have for you - Considering NE's situation and their game against Houston, what do you think I should do with my futures bet of Houston over 8.5 wins? I risked 200 to win 250 at the beginning of the year. Should I let it ride or bet some back on the Pats moneyline or with the points to hedge?
Thanks for the insight and good luck to you for the rest of the year.
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Scalabrine: One last question I have for you - Considering NE's situation and their game against Houston, what do you think I should do with my futures bet of Houston over 8.5 wins? I risked 200 to win 250 at the beginning of the year. Should I let it ride or bet some back on the Pats moneyline or with the points to hedge?
Thanks for the insight and good luck to you for the rest of the year.
Scalabrine: One last question I have for you - Considering NE's situation and their game against Houston, what do you think I should do with my futures bet of Houston over 8.5 wins? I risked 200 to win 250 at the beginning of the year. Should I let it ride or bet some back on the Pats moneyline or with the points to hedge?
Thanks for the insight and good luck to you for the rest of the year.
I always let my futures ride or i wouldn't have bet them in the first place.....at 8.5 games, you knew it would come down to the last game anyway so you'll have to gut it out...
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Quote Originally Posted by Schmohawk:
Scalabrine: One last question I have for you - Considering NE's situation and their game against Houston, what do you think I should do with my futures bet of Houston over 8.5 wins? I risked 200 to win 250 at the beginning of the year. Should I let it ride or bet some back on the Pats moneyline or with the points to hedge?
Thanks for the insight and good luck to you for the rest of the year.
I always let my futures ride or i wouldn't have bet them in the first place.....at 8.5 games, you knew it would come down to the last game anyway so you'll have to gut it out...
I always let my futures ride or i wouldn't have bet them in the first place.....at 8.5 games, you knew it would come down to the last game anyway so you'll have to gut it out...
let me clarify...I do now...i had a futures bet on the Celts winning it all in '08, hedged the whole playoffs and lost alot back...will never do it again...playing futures the whole way from here on out
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I always let my futures ride or i wouldn't have bet them in the first place.....at 8.5 games, you knew it would come down to the last game anyway so you'll have to gut it out...
let me clarify...I do now...i had a futures bet on the Celts winning it all in '08, hedged the whole playoffs and lost alot back...will never do it again...playing futures the whole way from here on out
First off, Thanks for the write up. Devils advocate:
I would pose the argument that Bengals are a team that desperately needs some momentum, with a chance to play a team like BAL that they've already beaten twice this year.
I just feel like your whole argument is based on logic that Marvin Lewis would knowingly dump the game, select the Jets as a 1st round matchup, and give them the confidence and momentum of winning their way into the playoffs and beating you the previous week. Maybe he will? But if he does, you better be damn sure he's going to have even more pressure than usual to win. Imagine the backlash of choosing your opponent and losing to them when the alternative was a team liike BAL or PIT you beat 2x in a home-away series earlier in the year.
I would venture to say that 'conventional' coaching wisdom would say Marvin Lewis would eliminate the immediate threat (NYJ) and get momentum on their side, and prepare for the next team on the slate. I don't know that to be true though. You just don't see 10-5 teams 'resting players' as often as 13-2 teams and from your write up, it sounds like we both agree we wouldn't lay 9-10 points against a bengals team playing for the win, so just something to consider that they may actually play to win and you'll be stuck holding a pretty heavy line.
From experience, it feels like the week 16-17 lines for teams like BAL, DEN, PIT, HOU that NEED the win - are going to be heavy because public feels like motivation determines outcome more than Xs and Os. I think that + the colts laying down is driving the Houston line more than whether NE will play to win or lose.
Thoughts? Good luck.
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First off, Thanks for the write up. Devils advocate:
I would pose the argument that Bengals are a team that desperately needs some momentum, with a chance to play a team like BAL that they've already beaten twice this year.
I just feel like your whole argument is based on logic that Marvin Lewis would knowingly dump the game, select the Jets as a 1st round matchup, and give them the confidence and momentum of winning their way into the playoffs and beating you the previous week. Maybe he will? But if he does, you better be damn sure he's going to have even more pressure than usual to win. Imagine the backlash of choosing your opponent and losing to them when the alternative was a team liike BAL or PIT you beat 2x in a home-away series earlier in the year.
I would venture to say that 'conventional' coaching wisdom would say Marvin Lewis would eliminate the immediate threat (NYJ) and get momentum on their side, and prepare for the next team on the slate. I don't know that to be true though. You just don't see 10-5 teams 'resting players' as often as 13-2 teams and from your write up, it sounds like we both agree we wouldn't lay 9-10 points against a bengals team playing for the win, so just something to consider that they may actually play to win and you'll be stuck holding a pretty heavy line.
From experience, it feels like the week 16-17 lines for teams like BAL, DEN, PIT, HOU that NEED the win - are going to be heavy because public feels like motivation determines outcome more than Xs and Os. I think that + the colts laying down is driving the Houston line more than whether NE will play to win or lose.
First off, Thanks for the write up. Devils advocate:
I would pose the argument that Bengals are a team that desperately needs some momentum, with a chance to play a team like BAL that they've already beaten twice this year.
I just feel like your whole argument is based on logic that Marvin Lewis would knowingly dump the game, select the Jets as a 1st round matchup, and give them the confidence and momentum of winning their way into the playoffs and beating you the previous week. Maybe he will? But if he does, you better be damn sure he's going to have even more pressure than usual to win. Imagine the backlash of choosing your opponent and losing to them when the alternative was a team liike BAL or PIT you beat 2x in a home-away series earlier in the year.
I would venture to say that 'conventional' coaching wisdom would say Marvin Lewis would eliminate the immediate threat (NYJ) and get momentum on their side, and prepare for the next team on the slate. I don't know that to be true though. You just don't see 10-5 teams 'resting players' as often as 13-2 teams and from your write up, it sounds like we both agree we wouldn't lay 9-10 points against a bengals team playing for the win, so just something to consider that they may actually play to win and you'll be stuck holding a pretty heavy line.
From experience, it feels like the week 16-17 lines for teams like BAL, DEN, PIT, HOU that NEED the win - are going to be heavy because public feels like motivation determines outcome more than Xs and Os. I think that + the colts laying down is driving the Houston line more than whether NE will play to win or lose.
Thoughts? Good luck.
Thanks for the input:
1. I really don't see the need for momentum. They won last week. Albeit against a very weak team, they walked away with a win and can close up shop for week 17. Why is this important to a team like the Bengals? Because they do have a history of injuries, especially the year they had a somewhat legit Super Bowl contending team in 2005 in a home playoff game, Palmer went down with a torn ACL against Pitt. Palmer is fragile as it is. And with a Jet defense who should be seeking out his knees, Palmer could sit out the second half like Peyton did.
2. Your 2X argument contradicts 'conventional' (i'll borrow) thinking with these teams in that beating a team 3X is much more unlikely than going 2-1 regardless of how counterintuitive that may be.
3. I don't think Marvin will 'knowingly dump'. That could never be proven. As some alluded to in this thread, Marvin will just keep the playbook closed while the Jets will be pulling out all the stops. Result? Conservative game plan against a desperate team at home on the last day of the season to make the playoffs = loss. And I think 9 is a great number in that even if it's 7 pt. game, the Jets need only a late field goal to cover. Although I don't think it will be that close at all.
Tyler H. has some spunk by the way...nice little pick-up for the Pacers...
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Quote Originally Posted by ownedbymerc:
First off, Thanks for the write up. Devils advocate:
I would pose the argument that Bengals are a team that desperately needs some momentum, with a chance to play a team like BAL that they've already beaten twice this year.
I just feel like your whole argument is based on logic that Marvin Lewis would knowingly dump the game, select the Jets as a 1st round matchup, and give them the confidence and momentum of winning their way into the playoffs and beating you the previous week. Maybe he will? But if he does, you better be damn sure he's going to have even more pressure than usual to win. Imagine the backlash of choosing your opponent and losing to them when the alternative was a team liike BAL or PIT you beat 2x in a home-away series earlier in the year.
I would venture to say that 'conventional' coaching wisdom would say Marvin Lewis would eliminate the immediate threat (NYJ) and get momentum on their side, and prepare for the next team on the slate. I don't know that to be true though. You just don't see 10-5 teams 'resting players' as often as 13-2 teams and from your write up, it sounds like we both agree we wouldn't lay 9-10 points against a bengals team playing for the win, so just something to consider that they may actually play to win and you'll be stuck holding a pretty heavy line.
From experience, it feels like the week 16-17 lines for teams like BAL, DEN, PIT, HOU that NEED the win - are going to be heavy because public feels like motivation determines outcome more than Xs and Os. I think that + the colts laying down is driving the Houston line more than whether NE will play to win or lose.
Thoughts? Good luck.
Thanks for the input:
1. I really don't see the need for momentum. They won last week. Albeit against a very weak team, they walked away with a win and can close up shop for week 17. Why is this important to a team like the Bengals? Because they do have a history of injuries, especially the year they had a somewhat legit Super Bowl contending team in 2005 in a home playoff game, Palmer went down with a torn ACL against Pitt. Palmer is fragile as it is. And with a Jet defense who should be seeking out his knees, Palmer could sit out the second half like Peyton did.
2. Your 2X argument contradicts 'conventional' (i'll borrow) thinking with these teams in that beating a team 3X is much more unlikely than going 2-1 regardless of how counterintuitive that may be.
3. I don't think Marvin will 'knowingly dump'. That could never be proven. As some alluded to in this thread, Marvin will just keep the playbook closed while the Jets will be pulling out all the stops. Result? Conservative game plan against a desperate team at home on the last day of the season to make the playoffs = loss. And I think 9 is a great number in that even if it's 7 pt. game, the Jets need only a late field goal to cover. Although I don't think it will be that close at all.
Tyler H. has some spunk by the way...nice little pick-up for the Pacers...
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