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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THIS GAME. NOBODY ELSE DOES

    mariner24
    BankOnIt22
    dude1618
    cheesedips
    DoubleUp4Life
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 3060
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    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 10:44 AM ET #1

    SEA +3   Or if you want to make an easy extra buck or 2.. just take the SEA ML at +130.

      This play is as much fading the absolutley dreadful Browns as it is riding seattles new little wave of momentum.

    Since scoring 30 points during a 1-2 start, Seattle now (2-3) has put up 64 in the last two games. That sharp increase can be attributed to a no-huddle offense installed in the second half of a 30-28 loss to Atlanta on Oct. 2 when it scored 21 in the final 25:01.

    The Seahawks had season highs in total yards (424) and rushing yards (145) in their last game, a 36-25 road victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 9.

    Everyone wants to fade Whitehurst on the road, but Seattle is going to be fresh off their bye week with Whitehurst getting plenty of time taking all of the snaps in practice.

    Keep in mind his last start was Jan. 2, when he threw for 192 yards and a TD in place of injured starter Matt Hasselbeck in a 16-6 victory over St. Louis that clinched the NFC West title for Seattle....

    The Browns' 30th-ranked rushing attack (81.6 yards per game) , and will be without Peyton Hillis.

    The Browns also have Colt Mccoy. Fade Material. The Browns need him to start delivering the ball with better accuracy. The second-year QB is ranked 27th in completion percentage (55.8)

    Guys i really love this play..and if anyone has any feedback, I welcome it, positive or negative. I've been trying to look at this game from all angles.

     

     

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    SEA +3   Or if you want to make an easy extra buck or 2.. just take the SEA ML at +130.

      This play is as much fading the absolutley dreadful Browns as it is riding seattles new little wave of momentum.

    Since scoring 30 points during a 1-2 start, Seattle now (2-3) has put up 64 in the last two games. That sharp increase can be attributed to a no-huddle offense installed in the second half of a 30-28 loss to Atlanta on Oct. 2 when it scored 21 in the final 25:01.

    The Seahawks had season highs in total yards (424) and rushing yards (145) in their last game, a 36-25 road victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 9.

    Everyone wants to fade Whitehurst on the road, but Seattle is going to be fresh off their bye week with Whitehurst getting plenty of time taking all of the snaps in practice.

    Keep in mind his last start was Jan. 2, when he threw for 192 yards and a TD in place of injured starter Matt Hasselbeck in a 16-6 victory over St. Louis that clinched the NFC West title for Seattle....

    The Browns' 30th-ranked rushing attack (81.6 yards per game) , and will be without Peyton Hillis.

    The Browns also have Colt Mccoy. Fade Material. The Browns need him to start delivering the ball with better accuracy. The second-year QB is ranked 27th in completion percentage (55.8)

    Guys i really love this play..and if anyone has any feedback, I welcome it, positive or negative. I've been trying to look at this game from all angles.

     

     

     
    BankOnIt22
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 10:50 AM ET #2

    I have the Seahawks myself. I think Whitehurst is actually a better option going forward. The line looks too easy to take Cleveland especially at home. It will be a tight matchup but I see Seattle getting the SU win...Good luck!
    Reply
    I have the Seahawks myself. I think Whitehurst is actually a better option going forward. The line looks too easy to take Cleveland especially at home. It will be a tight matchup but I see Seattle getting the SU win...Good luck!
     
    BankOnIt22
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 10:51 AM ET #3

    I have Seattle and Arizona for tomorrow.....Your thoughts on Arizona?
    Reply
    I have Seattle and Arizona for tomorrow.....Your thoughts on Arizona?
     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 11:04 AM ET #4

    If I had a gun to my head, I'd bet the Cards + the points. But BOTH the Steelers and the Cards have been way too Jekll and Hyde this year.

    I do like the fact Arizona is coming off a well needed bye.

    Pittsburgh has won four of five, but those victories have come against teams with a combined 6-16 record. The Steelers have also failed to put together complete performances in most of those games (aka 17-13 victory over Jacksonville last week)

    Steelers aging defense is banged up too. They will be without linebacker James Harrison, nose tackle Casey Hampton and defensive end Aaron Smith.

    If Beanie Wells has a great game, the Cards keep this one really close.  goodluck

    Reply

    If I had a gun to my head, I'd bet the Cards + the points. But BOTH the Steelers and the Cards have been way too Jekll and Hyde this year.

    I do like the fact Arizona is coming off a well needed bye.

    Pittsburgh has won four of five, but those victories have come against teams with a combined 6-16 record. The Steelers have also failed to put together complete performances in most of those games (aka 17-13 victory over Jacksonville last week)

    Steelers aging defense is banged up too. They will be without linebacker James Harrison, nose tackle Casey Hampton and defensive end Aaron Smith.

    If Beanie Wells has a great game, the Cards keep this one really close.  goodluck

     
    BankOnIt22
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 11:12 AM ET #5

    Reply
     
    dude1618
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 11:31 AM ET #6

    another West Coast team coming east at 1:00p.m.

    at least SEA proved they can win at that time. this is a non bet to most
    Reply
    another West Coast team coming east at 1:00p.m.

    at least SEA proved they can win at that time. this is a non bet to most
     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 11:36 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by dude1618:

    another West Coast team coming east at 1:00p.m.

    at least SEA proved they can win at that time. this is a non bet to most
    i normally agree with the west traveling east trends... but Seattle is coming off of a bye. As are the chargers going to NY

    i feel strongly on both of these teams, despite the plane rides. Simply because they arent short weeks of practice.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by dude1618:

    another West Coast team coming east at 1:00p.m.

    at least SEA proved they can win at that time. this is a non bet to most
    i normally agree with the west traveling east trends... but Seattle is coming off of a bye. As are the chargers going to NY

    i feel strongly on both of these teams, despite the plane rides. Simply because they arent short weeks of practice.

     
    cheesedips
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 11:59 AM ET #8

    steelers seem to rise up when they looke the worst..they had seasons where they looked shitty for weeks and ended up in the playoffs and winning. cant trust zona with my money ever.  steelers will cover this one.
    Reply
    steelers seem to rise up when they looke the worst..they had seasons where they looked shitty for weeks and ended up in the playoffs and winning. cant trust zona with my money ever.  steelers will cover this one.
     
    DoubleUp4Life
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 1:45 PM ET #9

    Love the Hawks 

    BOL Brother 
    BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
    Reply
    Love the Hawks 

    BOL Brother 
     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 1:54 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Love the Hawks 

    BOL Brother 
      lets get this doubleup !
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

    Love the Hawks 

    BOL Brother 
      lets get this doubleup !
     
    jeremydraul
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 2:28 PM ET #11

    gl
    Reply
    gl
     
    dillon24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 3:46 PM ET #12

    Whitehurst playing might get me to back off this game altogether, I liked Cleveland. Last week was last week
    Reply
    Whitehurst playing might get me to back off this game altogether, I liked Cleveland. Last week was last week
     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 3:49 PM ET #13

    Obviously Whitehurst doesnt have enough starts or stats to give reason why I like him better as a starter than Jackson, I just think in 2 weeks time, Seattle was able to formulate a gameplan to beat the lowely Browns with anyone in the QB position. 
    Reply
    Obviously Whitehurst doesnt have enough starts or stats to give reason why I like him better as a starter than Jackson, I just think in 2 weeks time, Seattle was able to formulate a gameplan to beat the lowely Browns with anyone in the QB position. 
     
    TabascoKat
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 3:58 PM ET #14

    My play in this one is the over for SEA/CLE.  Check out their trends:

    *Both are 3-2 O/U

    Over is 13-3 in SEA last 16 games overall

    Over is 20-8-1 in SEA last 29 games as an underdog

    Over is 36-15 in SEA last 51 games on grass

    Over is 6-2 in CLE last 8 home games

    Also lifted this nugget from Warren Sharp's GetSharp

    Since 2005, no team has seen more OVERS on the road than the Seahawks. 65% of their road games have gone over the total and a large part of that is their location and home environment. They are so remote and play in such a tough environment for visiting teams that the vast majority of home games go under (roughly 58% since 2005). This disparity—from 65% OVERS on the road to 58% UNDERS at home—is the largest swing in the NFL.

    Since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle, overs have been cashing at a high rate on the road.

    And this helps their OVERS on the road, as oddsmakers set their total to account for YTD performance, but that includes so many unders at home. Since Pete Carroll came to town, the tendency to overs is even greater, as 70% of the Seahawks’ games overall (including 75% on the road) have gone OVER. The average total set was 41 and the average total points scored was 46.

    When you need points, you need teams to convert in the red zone. No one would guess it, but both Seattle and Cleveland are currently in the top 10 in offensive red zone scoring percentage. Defensively they are both in the middle of the pack, though looking at just the three most recent games, Seattle is third worst in the league.

    Don't forget injuries, where Seattle lost their best CB Marcus Trufant to IR earlier this week and the Seahawks may also be starting Charlie Whitehurst at QB, who has better passer rating and YPA (yards per attempt) numbers this season than Tarvaris Jackson

    Reply

    My play in this one is the over for SEA/CLE.  Check out their trends:

    *Both are 3-2 O/U

    Over is 13-3 in SEA last 16 games overall

    Over is 20-8-1 in SEA last 29 games as an underdog

    Over is 36-15 in SEA last 51 games on grass

    Over is 6-2 in CLE last 8 home games

    Also lifted this nugget from Warren Sharp's GetSharp

    Since 2005, no team has seen more OVERS on the road than the Seahawks. 65% of their road games have gone over the total and a large part of that is their location and home environment. They are so remote and play in such a tough environment for visiting teams that the vast majority of home games go under (roughly 58% since 2005). This disparity—from 65% OVERS on the road to 58% UNDERS at home—is the largest swing in the NFL.

    Since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle, overs have been cashing at a high rate on the road.

    And this helps their OVERS on the road, as oddsmakers set their total to account for YTD performance, but that includes so many unders at home. Since Pete Carroll came to town, the tendency to overs is even greater, as 70% of the Seahawks’ games overall (including 75% on the road) have gone OVER. The average total set was 41 and the average total points scored was 46.

    When you need points, you need teams to convert in the red zone. No one would guess it, but both Seattle and Cleveland are currently in the top 10 in offensive red zone scoring percentage. Defensively they are both in the middle of the pack, though looking at just the three most recent games, Seattle is third worst in the league.

    Don't forget injuries, where Seattle lost their best CB Marcus Trufant to IR earlier this week and the Seahawks may also be starting Charlie Whitehurst at QB, who has better passer rating and YPA (yards per attempt) numbers this season than Tarvaris Jackson

     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 5:09 PM ET #15

    I do see Seattle being able to score points...I'm just having a hard time seeing Cleveland being able to keep up.
    Reply
    I do see Seattle being able to score points...I'm just having a hard time seeing Cleveland being able to keep up.
     
    BKosar
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 5:31 PM ET #16

    As a die hard Browns fan, I couldn't agree with you more. Hillis out, Haden ???, and Fujita probably won't play either. The running game has been awful all year and McCoy doesn't have the weapons at WR to pass the ball 35-40 times a game. Good luck but I hope you're wrong.
    Reply
    As a die hard Browns fan, I couldn't agree with you more. Hillis out, Haden ???, and Fujita probably won't play either. The running game has been awful all year and McCoy doesn't have the weapons at WR to pass the ball 35-40 times a game. Good luck but I hope you're wrong.
     
    sector225
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 7:19 PM ET #17

    Tease CLE + OVER
    Dont bet seattle on the road 
    Reply
    Tease CLE + OVER
    Dont bet seattle on the road 
     
    mariner24
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2011 - 7:57 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by BKosar:

    As a die hard Browns fan, I couldn't agree with you more. Hillis out, Haden ???, and Fujita probably won't play either. The running game has been awful all year and McCoy doesn't have the weapons at WR to pass the ball 35-40 times a game. Good luck but I hope you're wrong.
      i was hoping to get a Browns fans input. Someone who watches every Browns game. Usually die hard Browns fans will look to every reason possible to convince themselves that their team can succeed no matter the current team situation. (Much like myself being a Bills fan). So if you see the Seahawks winning...that makes me feel alot better about this bet.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by BKosar:

    As a die hard Browns fan, I couldn't agree with you more. Hillis out, Haden ???, and Fujita probably won't play either. The running game has been awful all year and McCoy doesn't have the weapons at WR to pass the ball 35-40 times a game. Good luck but I hope you're wrong.
      i was hoping to get a Browns fans input. Someone who watches every Browns game. Usually die hard Browns fans will look to every reason possible to convince themselves that their team can succeed no matter the current team situation. (Much like myself being a Bills fan). So if you see the Seahawks winning...that makes me feel alot better about this bet.
     
    WhatThePho
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 2:52 AM ET #19

    Since Iam a homer, Seattle offense will depend on blocking for Lynch. He is like a roller coaster. One good game and one bad game. As for match ups, Seattle tend to play well with good teams and suck playing average teams. Seattle did win on the road by beating a 4-2 NY Giants team. Whitehurst will try to prove himself and take the starting job for  the rest of the season. Should be a close game, Seattle season will be over if they lose this game and fall way behind 5-1 SF. So they will give it their all on this game. SEA 27- CLEVE 21

    BOL

    Reply

    Since Iam a homer, Seattle offense will depend on blocking for Lynch. He is like a roller coaster. One good game and one bad game. As for match ups, Seattle tend to play well with good teams and suck playing average teams. Seattle did win on the road by beating a 4-2 NY Giants team. Whitehurst will try to prove himself and take the starting job for  the rest of the season. Should be a close game, Seattle season will be over if they lose this game and fall way behind 5-1 SF. So they will give it their all on this game. SEA 27- CLEVE 21

    BOL

     
    KasperNV
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    Posts: 15200
    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 3:36 AM ET #20

    On it as well, the +3 looks really good.
    Second mouse gets the cheese.
    Reply
    On it as well, the +3 looks really good.
     
    kickinA
    kickinA
    All-Star
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    Joined: Oct, 2004
    Posts: 13462
    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 3:40 AM ET #21

    Now that you've got my attention, I might put in a small play on SEA.

    GL

    Reply

    Now that you've got my attention, I might put in a small play on SEA.

    GL

     
    insatiable
    insatiable
    Legend
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    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 36896
    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 3:59 AM ET #22

    Reply
     
    MrBogey
    MrBogey
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 3042
    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 4:19 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by sector225:

    Tease CLE + OVER
    Dont bet seattle on the road 



    teasing -3 to +3 is never a good bet because by crossing the zero one and 2 are almost a total waste of the 6 points
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by sector225:

    Tease CLE + OVER
    Dont bet seattle on the road 



    teasing -3 to +3 is never a good bet because by crossing the zero one and 2 are almost a total waste of the 6 points
     
     
    MrBogey
    MrBogey
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 3042
    Posted: Oct. 23, 2011 - 4:20 AM ET #24

    you are MUCH better off just betting Seattle-3
    Reply
    you are MUCH better off just betting Seattle-3
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