@brn2loslive2win
No sir. That is my whole reason for posting them. The two ratings are very different. But efficiency numbers are a part of the power ratings.
These are pure efficiency numbers composed of 3 components on offense and 3 components on defense.
Yes, the efficiency numbers come into play for the power ratings though.
But when I look at a matchup I consider how each team's component matches up against the other team's.
A team can be far more efficient on one side of the ball, or just in one component on that side of the ball.
You can essentially cross-reference each component against the other team's corresponding component.
Like how does each team's rushing efficiency matchup against the other team's rushing defense efficiency.
It is far more beneficial to have a team that is consistently efficient on both sides of the ball and in all phases of each side. That way you are not having to rely on them to for sure be good at one thing and hoping for them to be good at another.
This is a game where both teams are pretty consistently efficient.
You want to back a team that can beat you multiple ways and able to stop the other team multiple ways. Backing just a good offensive team is not good; backing just a good defensive team is not good. Backing a team that is very efficient passing but not efficient rushing is not good; backing a team that can stop the pass but not the run is not good either.
But I also use a rolling 5-game average for crucial things. Then I will look at how a team's offense matches up against the other team's defense. Things like teams that blitz a lot against a QB that excels against the blitz, etc.
There are numbers that show all of this. For example, some QBs are excellent from a clean pocket but not against pressure. Some defenses play a cover-2 or something more than others but against certain QBs this is not as effective. So, you can draw numbers like this out and break it down that way to be more accurate as far as how a team is trending and against what type of defense/offense they are about to face.
I am sure that is far too much rambling to answer your question.
Using the efficiency model cross-referenced I have AZ +6.4 and with the statistics model I have AZ +7.1
So, it is close to the AZ +8
@brn2loslive2win
Another way to look at it is when you know almost for sure one part of a team's offense can be taken away.
Two games to look at from last week are examples of this.
The CIN/BALT and the CHI/PHL games were very likely to be affected by weather and/or team scheming.
When it is windy, especially 18-20+mph it makes for a lower scoring game usually because the teams have to run.
Baltimore already is struggling to throw the ball this year so Cincinnati got lucky with the wind. Because Cincinnati is horrible against the pass this year. So, all they basically had to do was hold Henry and Jackson in check on the ground enough to beat them. Except for one long run early they did that.
in the other game a similar thing played out. This year Philadelphia is excellent against the pass but not nearly as good against the run. Whereas, Philadelphia is not running the ball well at all this year. But it is Chicago's best part of their defense. All Chicago had to do was concentrate on the part of their defense that they are the most efficient at already.
I had bet both games UNDER big as soon as they came out because of the weather and the way I thought the games would play out.
Then I played both Cincinnati and Chicago. I also had Cincinnati on an underdog ML parlay with GB and KC.
But both the Cincinnati and the Chicago plays were purely plays on the team's efficiency at that part of the game.
@Raiders22
Thanks Raiders for the very detailed response as always. I’m still not 100% sure what to do with these numbers and I’m sure that others are thinking the same.
So obviously we want to compare the teams to each others using these numbers, but as you say they are not to be used like a power ranking. So then they are not used to create a point spread. So let’s use the LAR/AZ game for an example. I appreciate your break down of last week’s games but let’s use the updated WAR rating and try to make sense of a game this week.
Total WAR:
LAR 6.9
AZ 5.3
Dif 1.6
OFF WAR
LAR 3.9
AZ 3.1
Dif 0.8
DEF WAR
LAR 3
AZ 2.2
Dif 0.8
So when the average Joe looks at this he’s probably thinking “geez, these WAR ratings make it seem like LAR is not that much better than AZ”. We know that the LAR are an efficient team on both sides of the ball. We also know that although AZ is kind of a feisty team, that they are nowhere near as efficient as the Rams. But these numbers make it seem otherwise.
For example these ratings make it look like AZ is better than CHI. It makes it look like the LAR would have a tougher time facing AZ than CHI. This is very hard to believe if you compare the matchups, but is it accurate? Are we to believe that the LAR would have a harder time beating AZ than CHI?
This is what I’m trying to understand about these numbers. Am I even looking at this correctly? Should I instead be comparing LAR OFF WAR to AZ DEF WAR and vice versa? What exactly are we to do with these numbers and what is a significant difference that we can find a major matchup discrepancy? You’ve been posting these numbers often enough (weekly?) that you obviously are trying to make us pay attention to them. But what exactly are we doing with them? As the kids say, explain to me like I’m 5 please lol!
Thanks again R22. I have much appreciation for your posts and for making an effort to try and help us guys find betting angles. It seems you have enough knowledge of this stuff to write a book and if you did I’d be your first sale. Obviously advanced metrics are your bread and butter and I’m just trying to learn how to use them all and make sense of it all. I think that knowing how to use this information is just as important as the information itself. Hopefully not coming across as trying to get you to do the work for us as you’re already generous enough to offer tons of information and post your plays every week.
Thanks again for always taking the time
@brn2loslive2win
I would not look at it is a hard evaluation to ‘set’ a point spread. I would use it more to evaluate how cleanly the team’s units matchup against each other.
Then I would look at it and consider how the potential scheming of the upcoming game will be effective or not.
The power rating is much better for ‘setting’ a point spread. But nowadays the power rating includes a lot of these efficiency numbers.
If a team has a higher Power Rating they are very likely to win the game. But is it the cleanest way to determine if they will cover the spread or not.
It has been my contention for the last several years that by using both numbers you can find a better edge against a posted point spread.
Let’s look at the definition of this and breakdown a couple of things inside the numbers.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR): Points Above Replacement scaled using a Points-per-Win conversion that is based on the scoring environment
Let’s look at some of the critical metrics for each of these that are built into the efficiency of them.
LAR is 9-3 AZ is 3-9 and CH is 9-3
So, quite naturally the idea is that CH would play LAR a closer game and the point spread would be closer than a LAR and AZ game.
But the issue we want to find out is if the ‘edge’ is one way or the other with either of these matchups. Does the Power Rating ‘overvalue’ how much better LAR is than AZ. Does it ‘undervalue’ how much better LAR is than CH.
ANY/A: Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, a metric that integrates the approximate value of touchdowns, sacks, and turnovers and integrates it into a yards-per-attempt scale.
PE/Play: Total Points Earned per pass play
Positive Play Percentage; the percentage of passes thrown by the player that resulted in a positive EPA
EPA: Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player
LAR AZ CH
PASS 2.1 1.6 1.8
RUSH .1 .4 .3
REC 1.7 1.1 .7
PASS D 1.7 .2 .7
PASS RUSH .6 1.1 .2
RUN D .7 .9 .6
PASS WAR LAR 2.1 4th
AZ 1.6 7th
CH 1.8 5th
ANY/A LAR 8.2 1st
AZ 5.7 22nd
CH 6.6 11th
Rating LAR 111.7 1st
AZ 94.1 13th
CH 89.1 17th
On Target% LAR 73.7% 15th
AZ 76.8% 6th
CH 66.5% 31st
Positive% LAR 52.9% 3rd
AZ 47.3% 12th
CH 43.o% 25th
PE/Play LAR .219 2nd
AZ .149 12th
CH .183 7th
So, that is a look at some of the numbers from all three team’s passing game. There are some other numbers but those give you an idea. If you look at some of those numbers it would be hard to realize that AZ has that many far fewer wins than CH does.
So, it is very easy to think that maybe AZ is not as ‘bad’ as their record, while CH is not as ‘good’ as their record.
So, there may be ‘value’ on whatever line is put out on either matchup.
The teams obviously have to ‘play’ the game out the way you expect. But if you can put the ‘edge’ or ‘odds’ in your favor enough based on the team’s strengths and weaknesses by how efficient they are, or are not, in each area then you can feel comfortable choosing a side.
This should put you in more ‘potentially’ profitable situation throughout the year.
PASS DEFENSE WAR
LAR 1.7 4th
AZ .2 21st
CH .7 14th
Rating Against LAR 83.6 7th
AZ 89.7 13th
CH 92.1 16th
PS/Play LAR .295 4th
AZ .194 22nd
CH .244 14th
EPA/Play LAR -.05 7th
AZ .05 18th
CH .06 19th
Y/A LAR 6.5 6TH
AZ 7.0 15TH
CH 7.5 27TH
Comp% LAR 64.4% 14th
AZ 64.3% 13th
CH 67.4% 26th
You can very easily make the case that LAR has the best QB and the best WR in the league. So, you have to ask which team has the better chance to counter that or at least slow it down better.
This is the Power Rating Model I like best because they do an excellent job:
NFL Power Rating by nfelo model:
https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/
LAR 1660 1st
AZ 1411 25th
CH 1502 15th
So, imagine if you made the line for CH +3.5/+5 against LAR and the line for AZ +8 against LAR.
If you look just at the Pass numbers for LAR against the Pass Rush and Pass Defense numbers for AZ and CH which would you think would have a better value on the spread.
Certainly you have to look at the Rushing aspect of the game and the blocking and Rushing defensive numbers and matchups and special teams.
I know that is detailed and looks overly complicated. But once you have everything set up it is easy to look into each team and a matchup.
I know a lot of that is esoteric and sounds like nonsense.
But if you have any exact question about something in there I will try to give you a concise answer, or at least my opinion, on that particular question, instead of all of the rambling.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
