High Power Rated Does Not Necessarily Mean Efficient

@Raiders22

 The questions I have about this stuff would be endless. If you had some type of master class I would honestly pay for it and if you wrote a book i would probably read it 20 times! As a gambler for most of my life I find this stuff fascinating. 

I need to spend more time understanding each individual metric before I could make use of it all. I do understand some but probably not even close to as well as you do. If you could possibly rank or weight some or all of the metrics that you talked about above and tell which ones you find the most critical that would help. 

PE/play is one that I have taken time to try and incorporate into handicapping. I’ve talked with you before about ANY/A but need to dive a little deeper. 

NFELO is awesome. I’ve been looking at the site for a few years now. Highly recommended to anyone who wants to really get into this stuff. 

@brn2loslive2win

55 is the 11th most key number for obvious score total reasons, like 28-27, 35-20, etc.

10th most amount of games the last 5 years have landed on 55.

54 - 1.99%

55- 2.68%

56 - .78%

I had the total set at 51 and I usually like to be 3 or better on a total.  That extra percentage at that number in case of a push has to facto in also.

So to me U55 -104 or better would be ideal.

@Raiders22

 55 -110 is available tonight btw 

@brn2loslive2win

 The issue is that stuff is not for everyone.

Most people are just casual bettors that want some action.  They are okay just betting by the 'eye test' or how they 'feel' about a game or some obscure trend that has taken place for the last 10 years when most of the players were not even on the teams.

That is fine.  If it is just a fun hobby there is no need to delve into something that is monotonous to you.

But if you are betting serious money or want to get to that point, then you better find a way to be profitable.  

I think that advanced metrics provide the best path to profitability in the long term.

@Raiders22

 Cool thread, makes us look at things differently. 

I was interested if your war #'s(total/offense/defense) can be relegated to every team's last 5 games? Just to get a feel for their recent form.

Thanks in advance 

@undermysac

 Yessir, they can.  I look very closely at last 5-game rolling averages.

Cool, can you post em or link?

Thanks 

Prior to Lions/Cowboys game

Last 5 Games - TOTAL  WAR 

LAR    4.2

SEA    3.9

NE      2.9

DEN   2.8

JAX    2.5

PIT     2.3

AZ      2.2

DAL    2.2

DET    2.1

PHL    2.1

CH     1.9

ATL    1.8

CIN    1.7

BUF   1.5

MIA    1.5

HOU  1.5

SF      1.4

KC     1.3

GB     1.3

CLV   1.1

IND     .9

BLT     .8

LAC    .6

TEN   .6

TB      .5

NO     .5

NYJ    .5

CAR   .4

LV      .1

NYG  -.3

MIN   -.5

WAS  -1.0

Last 5 Games - OFF  WAR 

LAR    2.3

NE      2.1

SEA    1.9

CIN    1.8

DET   1.7

DAL   1.6

KC     1.5

CH     1.5

DEN   1.2

SF      1.1

AZ      1.1

PHL   1.1

BUF   1.0

ATL    .8

CAR   .8

GB     .7

MIA    .7

PIT     .5

JAX    .5

NYJ   .5

IND    .4

NYG  .3

WAS  .2

TB     .2

BLT    .1

LAC  -.2

HOU   0

TEN  -.1

NO    -.4

LV     -.4

MIN   -.7

CLV  -1.0

Last 5 Games - DEF  WAR 

CLV    2.1

SEA    2.0

JAX    2.0

LAR    1.9

PIT     1.8

DEN   1.6

HOU  1.5

AZ      1.1

ATL    1.0

PHL   1.0

NO      .9

NE      .8

LAC    .8

MIA    .8

BLT    .7

TEN   .7

DAL   .6

GB     .6

BUF   .5

IND    .5

LV      .5

DET   .4

CH     .4

SF      .3

TB     .3

MIN   .2

NYJ    0

CIN   -.1

KC     -.2

CAR  -.4

NYG  -.6

WAS  -1.2

TOTAL  WAR          

LAR    7.8

DEN   7.6 

DET   6.9

SEA    6.8

GB     5.6 

NE     5.4

AZ     5.4

JAX    5.3        

IND    5.1      

KC     5.1

HOU  4.8

PHL   4.8

BUF   4.4

CH     4.3

CLV   4.2

SF     4.0

ATL    3.8

DAL   3.7

PIT    3.7

LAC   3.7

TB     3.3

BLT    2.2

MIA    2.1

NO     2.0

MIN    1.6

NYG   1.5

CAR   1.1

CIN     .8

WAS   .7

TEN    .4 

LV     -.5

NYJ  -.9

OFF  WAR 

LAR   4.6

DET   4.4

KC     3.8

IND    3.6

DEN   3.5

AZ      3.5

SF      3.4

SEA    3.3

DAL    3.2

BUF    3.2

GB      3.2

NE      3.0

CH     2.8

CIN    2.7

ATL    2.4

WAS  2.0

LAC   2.0

PHL   1.7

PIT    1.7

CAR   1.4

MIA   1.4

JAX    1.4

TB     1.3

BLT    1.3

NYG   1.2

HOU  1.2

NO      .7

NYJ   -.7

MIN   -.1

TEN   -.6

LV     -1.1

CLV  -1.1

DEF  WAR

CLV    5.3 

DEN   4.1

JAX    3.9

HOU  3.6

SEA    3.3

LAR    3.2

PHL    3.1

DET    2.5

GB      2.4

NE      2.4

PIT     2.0

TB      2.0

AZ      1.9

LAC    1.7

MIN    1.7

IND    1.5

CH     1.5

ATL    1.4

KC     1.3

NO     1.3

BUF   1.2

TEN    1.0

BLT     .9

MIA     .7

LV       .6

SF       .6

DAL    .5

NYG    .3

NYJ   -.2

CAR   -.3

WAS -1.3

CIN   -1.9

Last 5 Games - TOTAL  WAR 

LAR    4.4

SEA    4.3

NE      2.9

DEN   2.9

JAX    2.9

DET    2.9

DAL    2.6

PHL    2.2

CLV    2.2

AZ      1.9

PIT     1.8

HOU  1.8

NO     1.8

GB     1.7

MIA    1.6

ATL    1.4

SF      1.4

BLT    1.4

CIN    1.3

BUF   1.3

CH     1.2

TEN   1.2

CAR   1.0

MIN    .7

KC      .5

LV      .3

IND     .1

LAC    .1

NYJ   -.2

TB     -.3

NYG  -.4

WAS  -1.1

Last 5 Games - OFF  WAR 

LAR    2.4

DET   2.3

NE      2.1

DAL   1.8

SEA    1.7

AZ      1.7

CIN    1.2

KC     1.1

DEN   1.1

SF      1.1

BUF   1.1

GB     1.1

PIT     .8

ATL    .7

CAR   .7

BLT    .6

CH     .5

MIA    .5

JAX    .5

PHL    .4

WAS   .4

NYG   .3

NO     .3

TEN   .2

TB      .1

HOU   .1

IND   -.1

MIN   -.1

CLV   -.1

NYJ   -.3

LAC  -.6

LV     -.9

Last 5 Games - DEF  WAR 

SEA    2.6

CLV    2.3

JAX    2.4

LAR    2.0

PIT     1.8

DEN   1.8

HOU  1.7

NO     1.5

MIA    1.1

PHL   1.0

TEN   1.0

NE      .8

BLT    .8

DAL   .8

MIN   .8

ATL    .7

LAC    .7

CH     .7

GB     .6

LV      .6

DET   .6

SF      .3

CAR   .3

BUF   .2

IND    .2

AZ     .2

NYJ    .1

CIN    .1

TB    -.4

KC    -.6

NYG  -.7

WAS  -1.5

Top 4 CBs Passer Rating Against:

Jamel Dean 10.3

Donte Jackson 15.6

Josh Jobe 28.6

Cobie Durant 30.3

Yes, thank you for the updates