ok Marist at Merrimack he we go again these 2 played earlier at Marist and merrimack won that game kind of easily 68-55 in a game where Marist took 8more shots due to their offensive rebounding where they had 12 to just 3 for merrimack ..Marist was 17/52 33% and were just 2/16 from 3 but were 19/22 at the ft line , Merrimack shot 21/44 48% and were 4/17 from 3 24% and were 22/27 at the ft line so no reason why merrimack won besides better shooting and good defense, both these teams play defense, i like Merrimacks a little better, i mean to take just 44 shots and win by 13 and no big advantage in ft's they just went on the road and played well ..Merrimack is 10-4-1 ats after a win, 6-1-1 ats at home, 5-1-1 ats as a home favorite, and are 10-3-1 ats in conf total here is 129 id have to guess under here with these 2 defenses , score 65 ya win Merrimack 67-60 laying 2.5 and Merrimack is 8-0 str up at home marist is 1-4 str up as a dog
Merrimack -2.5 -130
adding a 2 team teaser on 2 teams i may play str up on, 1st tennessee st is at s.indiana tenn st is 9-3 str up as a favorite and are 3-2 ats as an away fav and are 8-4 ats away this year, they did beat S Ind 73-67 at home earlier, but s indiana is 0-7 str up as a home dog, and just 1-8 ats at home and 0-7 ats as a home dog Tenn st is -5 to 5.5 i likethem here to win and cover but taking them down to a pk i really like, then st thomas is at Omaha , now Omaha did win 2 of the 3 meetings last year, each team won at home and then Omaha beat them in the conf tourney, all 3 games were higher scoring games , omaha won at home 89-78 then st thomas won at home 95-84, then omaha beat them 85-75 now what we must remember about this game in their tourney was that st thomas even if they had won was not going to be able to go to the NCAA tourney, so maybe players were not really motivated for trying to win , this year they can go it was omaha's 1st trip i think to the ncaa tourney, and Omaha last year had 2 really solid players in JJ white and sutton both are gone now they combined in that game for about 50 of their 85 pts , i mean think about it your playing a game to where even if ya win your not going anywhere that rule is stupid anyway i am putting st thomas down to +1.5 and Tenn st to a pk i like this teaser
teaser st thomas +1.5/tenn st pk
taking Valparaiso tonight +9.5 -120 at Ill st now Valparaiso beat illinois st earlier at home 77-71 and again they did it even though Ill st took 21 more shots, they took 21 more shots because they had 17 offensive rebounds to just 4 for Valp, but Valparaiso shot 21/41 51% but 41 shots is very low, and they were 9/12 from 3 75% but they killed them on ft's as they were 26/35 at the line and Ill st was 26/62....5/16 from 3 and 14/23 at the line so they missed 9 ft's but also Valparaiso has really had their way with Ill st over the years winning 5 of last 6 and 13 of last 16 meetings, and they are 8-3-1 ats after a win, they are 7-4 ats away, 10-5-1 ats as a dog, 13-4 ats on 2-3 days off, and 10-4 ats in conf, also Valparaiso is 8-3 OVER away, and they are 12-4 OVER as a dog so maybe a look into the over here and Illinois st is coming off a loss as a 10 pt favorite at evansville, and lost 50-54 at home to s.ill , and valparaiso is coming off a road win at Drake where i was on Valpin that game and have won 2 of their last 3 on the road
Valparaiso +9.5
going to take a shot here and take N.Iowa at Belmont , these 2 played at N.Iowa and belmont won easily 78-65 in a game where Belmont shot 60% abd 48% from 3 , and also that was at a time before n.Iowa would go on and lose their next 4 after that, i think they are playing better right now they are 6-3 ats away and 5-1 ats as a dog, and 4-1 ats as an away dog, Belmont is a good team for sure, but this total of 138 has me thinking N.Iowa is the play here, i mean belmont can score, and the last 3 games they are avg 85 pts a game and at home they avg 84 pts a game, so this total has me thinking.... maybe belmont wins big to keepthis under but N Iowa won 4 in a row before losing earlier, and the last 3 all went over this total i just feel N.Iowa will play well, they have won 4 of their last 5 and 3 straight i am also buying up to 5.5
N.Iowa +5.5
kind of favoring Ind st at home vs Murray st , murray st has lost 6 of their last 8 games so they are struggling a bit, and when these 2 played earlier, Ind st fell behind in the 1st half by 10 and even in the 2nd half they were down 8-10 pts but they came back and made it really close, being down just 2 pt 83-81 with 19 sec's left ...Ind st shot 48% and were 50% from 3 that game , but were only 9/15 at the line while Murray st was 47% shooting and 38% from 3 but were 16/23 at the line so both missed some ft's but those 6 extra made were important , line is just 3.5 Ind st could be worth a play maybe
Taking Idaho at home over Weber st -5 offshore these 2 played earlier at Idaho and idaho won that game 75-67, and to be honest they should have won by so much more, they shot 45% and 32% from 3 and were 17/26 at the line weber st shot a lousy 30% and only 24% from 3 but all their scoring came from the ft line where they were 28/39 , i think Idaho will shoot decent tonight and they cannot give up 40 ft's i think they cover this tonight with a 11 pt win and i do favor the over here too, but it is 155 i am seeing a 83-71 type of game
Idaho -5
adding another teaser here on 2 teams i like str up but going this way UIC they are +1.5 at Drake, Drake has had issues and this ill-chicago team has won some good road games this year, at bradley, at N.Iowa, at Ill st, at s.illinois so i see no reason why they could not pull off a win here tonight but raising them up to +6.5 and then i am going to add Indiana st who is at home and i am raising them to +8.5 they should keep this closer
Teaser UIC +6.5/Ind st +8.5
also i am going to go Over 154.5 in the Youngstown st/Oakland game these 2 like to score points, i was favoring Oakland here maybe too, they did win at YSU earlier 85-83 in a game where Oakland took 20 fewer shots, because YTS controlled the offensive boards in that game , but oakland even though they took 20 fewer shots they won that game because they were 25/34 at the ft line while Ysu was 15/20 so they took 14 more and made 10 more and won by 2, now at home i thought they should get this but i think this goes OVER by 10+ Oakland is 6-1 Over at home and YSU is 8-2 over away ..Oakland is 10-3 str up as a fav, and YSU is just 2-6 str up as a dog and Oakland is 6-3 ats with a rest advantage and they have been off since the 4th and YSU played on the 7th so going with the over here
OVER 154.5 Oakland/YSU
Established in 1995,
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