Help with this MNF middle opportunity

Question

Tell me what you would do here. In a teaser pool that winner walks away with 800 each week.

Here's the status. I am up 1 on the guy behind me. We have Colts +3.5 tonight, he has Giants +10.5. so,it can finish that we both win this game and I would win of course. But, if the Giants beat the Colts by 4 or more we would be tied for the lead. The tie breaker is to guess total points in the Monday night game. He guessed 44 I guessed 51.

So just by my math, if the Colts score at least 22 points we win no matter what because of the tie break. Even if the Giants win by more than 3.5 if the colts score at least 22 it guarantees I win the tie break.

I would like to find a way to middle.

PS I don't bet online so team totals / half / or anything like that is out of the question. Can only bet the line or total for the game.

I'm hoping someone smarter than me has a good idea!

powercapppers · Answer

Tell me what you would do here. In a teaser pool that winner walks away with 800 each week.

Here's the status. I am up 1 on the guy behind me. We have Colts +3.5 tonight, he has Giants +10.5. so,it can finish that we both win this game and I would win of course. But, if the Giants beat the Colts by 4 or more we would be tied for the lead. The tie breaker is to guess total points in the Monday night game. He guessed 44 I guessed 51.

So just by my math, if the Colts score at least 22 points we win no matter what because of the tie break. Even if the Giants win by more than 3.5 if the colts score at least 22 it guarantees I win the tie break.

I would like to find a way to middle.

PS I don't bet online so team totals / half / or anything like that is out of the question. Can only bet the line or total for the game.

I'm hoping someone smarter than me has a good idea!

Philanthropist · Answer

I think you are incorrect.Your exposure is:If the Giants win by 4&#x2B; and the total points are 44 or less he winsRegardless of who wins, if the total points are 51 or above you win.I don&#x27;t know if it is the closest without going over or just the closest to the total at which point, he wins if the total points are 45,46,47 and you win if 48,49,50,51&#x2B;I don&#x27;t know how much you put in, but you have to protect yourself in the event of a low scoring game.  It all depends on what you played to get into the contest.If it were me, Id put something on the under 50.5.  You have three options:1) Do nothing and let it ride;2) Bet enough on the Under to get back what you put into the contest. So you don&#x27;t lose anything.  For example if you put $100 into this contest, then bet $110 to win $100 on the under.  Thus, if the Giants win by 4&#x2B; and the game goes under, you don&#x27;t lose anything.3) Bet enough on the under to guarantee that no matter what happens you win.  For example, if you put $100 into this contest, then you would bet $440 to win $400 on the under.  If you win the teaser you win $800 and if the under hits you win another $400; If you win the teaser and you lose the under, then you win $360; if you lose the teaser and you win the under you get $300 ($400-100).  You can do the math and find the optimum that no matter what happens you win the same amount.  But the Ideal would be to win the teaser and hit the under.Good Luck with whatever you do.-p-

powercapppers · Answer

Thank you! Sorry it is not closest with going over it is just closest. So yes, anything 48+ means I win the tie break if it's needed. That's why I said if Indy scores 22 I win the pool. Because even if giants win by 4 or more, if Indy gets over 22 I win the tie break.

The entry to the pool was 100 FYI.

powercapppers · Answer

Feel like I should ride this out. Essentially I need either colts &#x2B;3.5 or over 47.5 to hit and I win the pool. Any play I make to middle feels greedy

Help with this MNF middle opportunity

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