Posted:
#1
32-32
The pick:
GIANTS +4.5 over DALLAS
...is on the Giants. The line has gone from -5 yesterday to -4.5 today on June 16th.
That is sharp money. There are no squares logging on to place bets this far out from Week 1.
The sharp money is coming in on the Giants, and the line is about to go down to -4 (a key number and a lot of money is needed to get it there), and it has to be the sharps. That is why I am grabbing -4.5 NOW (as -5 is a dead number anyway).
Guys here will crap on this theory but it is a long-standing line reading principle. And this will be my point #1.
Point #2 is even more important and I want YOU to pay attention to it SO READ THIS.
#2 Giants vs. Cowboys is a very intense rivalry and they always play each other close.
What does this mean? Points are VERY valuable and 4.5 looks like a mountain considering the molehill margins these teams play to.
Let me repeat this because teams have turnover and new faces every year: This game matters to BOTH teams, all the TIME, and therefore BOTH teams play at high levels with max intensity which keeps scores close. Again, this is regardless of new and old faces. Just look at the scores the past 5 years...
2016
20-19 Giants (Giants pick'em covers)
10-7 Giants (Giants +3.5 covers)
4 points total net point differential in two games. One one score game and a missed extra point decides the other.
2015
26-27 Cowboys (Giants cover +7)
27-20 Giants (Giants cover -3)
Net 6 point net differential. Giants need a 100 yard kick-off return to win by 7 in the 4th of this likely ends yet another 3 pt game.
2014
28-31 Cowboys (Giants cover +4)
21-31 Cowboys (Cowboys cover +4.5)
Net 13 pt differential. Only season in last 6 years which a TWO score differential can be found.
2013
31-36 Cowboys (Cowboys cover 3.5)
21-24 Cowboys (Push -3)
Net 8 pt differential. No more than a one score difference in two games.
2012
17-24 Cowboys (Cowboys cover -3.5)
29-24 Giants (Giants cover -1.5)
Net 2 pt differential. One score decides both games.
2011
37-34 Giants (Giants cover +4.5)
3 pt differential.
Over their last 11 games, there is a net 36 point differential in scores. That means the average is about THREE points (about 3.3 points exactly) per contest (on a net basis, not an absolute basis).
And that folks, using basic arithmetic, not advanced black box systems, is why 4.5 points here is IMMENSELY VALUABLE in a Giants outright win or loss., home or road. You can do that yourself with a pen and paper. And you can win doing that. Consistently. It is basic and meaningful.
You have to go all the way back to Game 1 of 2011 to find a 'blowout' (just 2 Td's if you consider that a 'blowout').
31-14 Giants (Giants cover -3)
Not only this but the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the Cowboys.
#3 13-3
Short and sweet. How is the line -4.5 Cowboys? I'll tell you: IT IS A SUPER SQUARE LINE. The Cowboys ALWAYS get padded on the line by the books particularly when they play well. Last season they had SUPER BOWL aspirations at 13-3. And that is why this line opened at -5 and is now -4.5. It is 100% a carryover from last year. That is a GOOD thing for Giant backers because we are getting a nice premium.
The Cowboy squares flood the books and the books know they can get a valuable premium on this line.
Being on the other side is a top rated insurance policy on the Giants. Sign for that policy.
0
time this season with a First place schedule than playing a last place schedule last year 
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