@TxG31
I used to agree with your sentiment on "fading the public" because Vegas needs a certain side. But these days I don't feel that's the case. Are there times to fade the public and bet with Vegas? Absolutely. Are there times to ride the public and bet against Vegas? Absolutely. I don't think Vegas cares on a certain particular game because they know they will eventually get it back. Especially if the public does win, because they will just re-bet those winnings! A great example is what just happened this Thanksgiving with Dallas and Miami. Dallas was a very public play especially with their insane ATS record at home this year. What happened? Dallas crushed and Vegas lost (that game). Same thing today with Miami being a very public play w/ the Jets abysmal offense and new QB. What happened? Miami crushed and Vegas lost (that game).
I do agree with Vanzack, though. There are systems that show profit in the long run, but the keys to success are:
1) Staying consistent and within the system and handling the losses. Even if said system loses 10 in a row you have to maintain the same betting system with the same unit sizes. Most fail because they chase and can't handle the "loss."
2) Having discipline to only bet said system and not crave "action."
Vanzack is keeping it real here. Leave emotions at the door and stay calculated as well as methodical. If not, it's in your best interest to assimilate that this is only for entertainment value and "hobby." Some collect Air Jordans and some gamble. It's as simple as that. There are just too many variables, unknowns, and chance to win just blindly turning on games and throwing darts. I'll give you an example of what just occurred with me....
I threw $100 on Duke to win the 2nd half (ATS, by 16) versus Southern Indiana to have some fun. My old lady is Black Friday shopping and I'm finally alone after a busy holiday (and no betting). SoIn kept it within 11 to 13 the entire final 9 of 10 minutes. Sure enough it gets to 15 with < 1min to go and the refs call a foul for Duke (and luckily he gets the and-1 so I'm covering by 1 now). There was 40 seconds left and Duke did NOT have to even run a play. But they did and he hits the and-1 to put me covering by 2. They could have ran out a shot clock violation and I guaranteed lose. SoIn still has 11 seconds to crush my play with a 3 or shoot a uncontested (more than likely) layup to push my bet. But what happens? They are the ones who run out the clock without attempting a shot.
I tell you that story to say this.....
Even when you think you have shit figured out you can't control the "unknowns." Bet for fun, or put in serious work to try to "beat the books." Picking wins is easy. Vegas wins because people can't control their emotions.
Best of luck and take care bro.
i excluded my self from all online and casino gambling about april 2022. anyone can do it. but most people love gambling to much to do it. i was actually doing pretty good at the end but i knew i was getting way too out of control and had to stop one way or another or my savings would gradually get less and less. it is probably the best thing i ever did. because i was betting games everyday. i 100% saved myself money. allthough i still gamble it is just on weekends when i go to atlantic city. usually borgota because they always give me 2 free $25 blackjack bets. so i use that while i put in my nfl bets
I’m 58, when I was in college 1983-87, i believed, that was what I needed to do- be on the same side as Vegas or opposite side of the public. Watched the line if it went from 3 to 2.5 I was on the fav. It went from 3 to 3.5 - taking the dog. In that time period it worked great made a lot of dollars for my age during that period. The problem I became obsessed with that thinking, moved to Ny in 1988, kept thinking that and lost my ass . I learned after that terrible year there had to be a better way . The problem there wasn’t the internet and accessible data that I was aware of . Not until the data became available and my thinking changed did I become somewhat successful . It’s tough stuff and I put time into it as it is a hobby and passion. I don’t bet crazy anymore, just love analyzing this stuff . The money is just a way to keep score. Bol to ya
Excellent read and continued success !!!!
You didn't pay much attention to what Van had to say. You "need" to take the emotions out of gambling. This means not betting on your homer NFL team, if you can't separate a bet made w your heart, and one made w your mind.
And as a successful stock investor, I will tell you the success lies in a lot of the same things that Van applies to gambling. Staying unemotional to stock swings ( buying when everyone else is heading for the hills), being very disciplined, etc. It is "not" luck if you just follow some time tested approaches to investing in the stock market.
I will say this. It is much easier being a successful stock investor than what Van is doing. It's truly impressive.
Here's my 2 cents! I started online betting in 2008. Prior to that I only gambled in Las Vegas every time I visited from Los Angeles. I'm 57 years old now. In 2018 with only $100 I wagered online and turned it into close to 10k. I repeated the feat in 2022 with only 100 and earned approximately $12k. This is not to impress you, but to impress upon you that profitable runs happen now and then, which made me believe I could consider it as a source of income. But this year it's been the "win and give back" syndrome. I have realized the only way to keep my sanity and my money in my pocket is bet smaller amounts and less plays per day or week. It is not easy but replacing betting with other meaningful activities and "fasting" like for weight management creates a healthier life for me at least. My other advice is stay away from paid betting services. I invested close to $5000 in a "picks package" back in 2008 when I was solicited by a guy named Mike from New York who enticed me with free picks then used big words and strategies on how we were going to make large amounts of money. Long story short, he eventually referred me to a Vegas contact named Mr. "C" who wanted an additional $10,000 from me and promised me a return of 22,000 -$25k with his guaranteed picks. That I said, "No." He then used manipulating language to try to work me to invest by saying "I've got clients that pay me up to $5000 per game for the information that makes them a lot of money." I refused then Mike called me back and berated me over the phone about my refusal. (They get your number from a list after you've contacted other betting services). Long story longer: betting should be the extra financial reward for using intelligence to make an educated prediction. Every now and then I may pay for a pick if I think I need an edge but not to what I did before. Few and far between make a true living at this but I feel I've done well enough to nor control or ruin me financially or on my marriage. Be prepared, be alert, and be wise.
I have a different take on the Success of a GAMBLER , it all starts with psychology
The problem with sports bettors is we think we know everything
when in fact we know very very very little
if u believe that u know a lot about all these players ,teams , different sports , ,horses etc , then your in DREAMLAND
so u must acknowledge that u know very little, when u have acknowledged that
then u have a SHOT in this business because you will be focusing in on something that U KNOW BEST, which is the LITTLE that u know , so this just gives u a shot, the next question is are u good enough with what u know best ?? which is the little that u know !! Time will tell obviously
So u are now focused in on capping a smaller part of the sports betting arena that u have the most CONFIDENCE in , which is the little that u know
This has to be established first in my opinion
After that it’s all about your CAPPING ABILITIES combined with your CASH MOVES (small moves, avg moves, large moves, huge moves )
these 2 factors go hand in hand , their like twins or a marriage or 2 wheels on a bike or 2 wings on a plane
if one of them breaks down too often it will be a struggle to keep your head above water , if that happens often the gambler might have to ask themselves if this is for me ?
maybe the gambler should keep it as a small hobby , something like buying lotto tickets
@Theasscritic
Assuming what you wrote is true....
Doesnt it make sense to minimize the impact of "capping" in your profitability model?
In a nutshell - that is what I am advocating. Figure out a way to maximize profitability and minimize reliance on "picking winners".
@vanzack
what your saying in my opinion should be determined by the gamblers capping confidence and goals , a gambler can succeed in both approaches in my view , so your 100 % accurate
I believe that there are plays out there that a gamlber should hit harder than other plays, this is my opinion because I believe that sometimes , not often obviously , there is a LOOSE line posted , when that line is posted I believe a gambler has to be more aggressive as these LOOSE lines don’t pop up often
There is "no discipline" at all in what you are saying. Suggesting that a gambler should " hit harder" some plays because " a loose line is posted" is nonsense, without any guardrails (i.e. a " hard" limit on your unit size no matter what)
Cash ""Management "" plays a sizable role in one's success. I thought in your previous post you were going to get there, but you posted this ;
-- After that it’s all about your CAPPING ABILITIES combined with your CASH MOVES (small moves, avg moves, large moves, huge moves )
This is what you should have said IMHO ;
-- After that it’s all about your CAPPING ABILITIES combined with your CASH MANAGEMENT
@Rush51
Managing money doesn’t consist of one approach in gambling , as long as u control that approach , that’s my opinion and what I will always stick to , u can manage the cash with a WIDE VOLATILITY range , of course if u are a bad capper it doesn’t matter
however if u are a GOOD capper u will make more dough as a result because a GOOD capper knows when to go HEAVY
It’s a horrible addiction , very powerful and hard to quit. People who make money at it wager Very little because people who gamble every day are addicts who lose. People who ate gambling small amounts who can afford to lose and enjoy the entertainment aspect of it are fine - few are those as well. Better off not gambling is my advice.
@vanzack
Really well thought out answer and much appreciated contribution Van. Your point about taking emotions out of it is why i have temporarily (hopefully permanently) walked away from gambling. It's so hard to see the right like when you always have an emotional lean.
great advice and thread in general. I completely agree with the poster who mentioned some people like to do 4-5k trips and vacations, he/she likes to gamble on games. To me as long as it's a healthy vice, I have never seen an issue and can't understand that stigma.
BOL out there 
@Moose6836
This is me. I set aside one month salary. Most my bets are what i make a day. I find that i need skin in the game to get the desired effect. I want to win but dont think im good enough to make a living at it.
I dont believe i have a gambling problem but i dont enjoy a game unless i bet.
Am starting my 47th year gambling. This is one habit that i wish i never started, life could have been way better then my life is now(which is good) but i grew up around it everyday and it just ended up becoming second nature. I have had good years and have had bad years, even won a bunch of contests, but in the end the bookies get the donuts. The vig is too hard to overcome
Lewis if you had that 60k back right now and put it in some fund for 25 years that only gets 5 percent interest, you would have 203k. Way more then you will ever win gambling in 25 years. Gambling is a very bad habit, that takes away your money, time and mind, even your health. I tell young kids find something else to do and just invest the money your gonna lose gambling and down the road you will thank me, lolll. Too late in the game for me to change now, but everyday i still think what life would have been like for me had i never placed any bets
Good luck
Nice to see somebody that gets it. Gamblers today think all the games are rigged, when the truth is the games dont need to be rigged because 97 percent of bettors are going to lose long term and that vig the books earn from every bet, bettors just dont realize how hard it is to overcome.
Compound interest makes investors rich and the vig makes sports books rich. Books dont give a shit who wins or loses in any one game, cause in the end they will end up with all our money. Its like when a person wins at the casino, the casino doesnt care that they lose, cause they are just loaning the winner the money for the time being, the casino will get it back and then some. Its been like this since our dumb asses have been on this planet
Here's what you do. You get yourself involved in other people's pools, ask around as there are many out there whether it be a yearly pool or squares or strip cards or even right here on covers with CJ's FREE weekly pool here which he gives you a $50 gift certificate for picking four winners out of four for the week. And if you win his season ending it's $500 and to show you how hard it is to win, I went 36 and 36 which several other people did.. The vig is going to kill me if I bet that during the year. But with that being said, 39 wins out of 72 total games throughout the season won $500 (Not bad for a free game eh?).. Anything but the main games weekly because just by playing pools and just by playing strip cards and just by playing squares you're still going to be stressed, You're still going to have fun and most importantly you're NOT going to get your ass losing money playing the lines, week in and week out. 
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