Fixed game or not. (My perspective from Taiwan)

I have been a long-time member/lurker on Covers, rarely post but have been reading most of the posts in the forum.

Whether this Superbowl game was truly fixed or not, here are my perspective and reasons:

(1) The biggest sports-wagering site in Taiwan (called Worldwide) had this game up last night (they only have the game/lines 1 day before the actual game, unlike most other sites in the US). At first, Seattle Seahawks line was -0.5 but poor juice (went from 94% to 90% in the first hour, and from 90% to 86% within the first 3 hours; and never recovered from the low juice until 1 hour before gametime). This rarely happens (staying at such a low juice on one side, Seattle, for almost the entire betting action time) for such a big game like this. Even though Superbowl is not as popular in Taiwan, but it is still a widely wagered game. However, one hour before game time, the line for Seattle went from -1 to pk, with normal juice or high juice again at 96%. My conclusion: something is up, even books in Taiwan somehow knew... 

(2) Almost every thread I opened was talking about "Under", and you can see it for yourselves too on Covers. Based on the threads that I have opened, it seemed 80% or more of the threads had "Under". But guess what? At that time, I knew the Under wouldnt cash in for such a big game like this... And guess what? Even after no-scoring in the 1st quarter, they produced 28 points in the 2nd quarter alone, making sure any 1st half Unders are toast, and you cannot even buy out your original full game Unders because the 2nd half O/U line was 24. Even if you tried to buy out with Over 24, it was a still push for the 2nd half; but the more important full game under at 47, 48, 49 are all toasted. My conclusion: Vegas wins big on most of the Over/Under bets.

(3) I have been watching very closely on the Superbowl lines for the last 2 weeks (i.e. Pinnacle). I can tell (I may be wrong, but I think this is true, and Vegas will release their numbers and profits soon) that even though most of the bets (not $$ amounts) are on NE (as also suggested by Covers Consensus 60% NE, 40% Seattle), but the big money was coming in heavily on Seattle Seahawks (including mine), especially in the last couple of days, which is why you see the line went from pk to -1, and juice went from -102 for Seattle to -110 for Seattle on pinnacle in the last 1-2 days, until 1-2 hour before gametime (when most of the wagers have probably been placed already). So, if Seattle wins, I think Vegas stands to lose some big money (again, we will be able to know the actul profit/loss figures when Vegas released it). My conclusion: Vegas wont want Seattle win.

(4) With 40 some seconds left, when Seattle made it 2nd and goal at the 1-yard line, if they score a TD, NE would just need a Field Goal to tie. Normally, any coach on the opposing team should call a time out there (because the odds are Seattle is going to score a TD with the amount of time left and 2 timeouts remaining, plus how well Lynch has been running). Why didn't NE call a timeout?? Unless they knew they are gonna get an interception or win the game somehow, someway.... My conclusion: Seattle probably got the call from Vegas to dump the game.

(5) With 2 Time outs left (Seahawks also wasted a timeout the down before (1st down), as the play clock went to zero, dont get that part either; I guess Vegas wants to make full sure that Seattle wont get the ball back after the interception) and ball at the 1-yard line at 2nd down (3 tries to the end zone), any coach with any sense would run there (at least on the 2nd down), and give Lynch a shot (especially he had already run 4 yards from the 5-yard line to 1-yard line on the previous down). Even if they want to throw, why not throw at the corners where its less covered or less chance for interception? Why throw at the middle where there are tons of NE defenders? Or why even bother throwing at 2nd down? I can see they try throwing on 3rd down or 4th down... but never on 2nd down with Wilson throwing... My conclusion: only way it will make sure NE wins, cuz if they hand the ball to Lynch, he will score maybe 70% of the times, if not more. Vegas or Seattle can't risk that if NE needs to win.

(6) So, why fix this game? who gains?

(a) Vegas wins (because most of the bigger bets, heavy money were probably on Seattle and Under; guess what? both lost). Vegas probably took some hit in NBA this season, as many average joes made money thru betting those streaky teams, including Atlanta and Golden State; look at this, even someone has broken the Streak21 record this season, and reached 24; I am sure many average bettors win in the NBA when Atlanta and GS were playing like ATS covering machines until last week, after Brackson's streak is broken (with GS playing against the Bulls).

(b) The NFL probably also wants Tom Brady to win this Superbowl too, so that he will not go down as a choker (by losing 3 straight superbowls). They need Tom Brady as icon (like Michael Jordan or Lebron James). It's good for the game and promotion, and for the NFL brand too. SeaHawks are a young team with lots of talent, and NFL knows they will still have plenty of chances. So, next time, if Seattle ever goes to Superbowl again, mark my words, Vegas probably needs to return them a big favor... haha... We shall see.

I am not an expert and I am from Taiwan and dont follow the games that closely as some of the posters here. But, I am just bringing this up, based on my own observation and perspective. Hope this makes sense, and that my conspiracy theory is not too far out of line. What are your thoughts? Any feedback or corrections are welcomed. Thanks.   

Yeah, that too and thanks for bringing that up (Wilson's lack of emotion after the INT, like it was totally expected; he just quickly came back down as if "oops, my bad".) Remember how Wilson was in tears after that biggest and improbably comeback the previous game against Greenbay?? I would imagine he would have the same emotions, if not worse, with this INT and Superbowl on the line... He should be in bigger tears... It seemed not only Wilson was emotionless, and the coach Pete Carrol too... I really dont know what the make of it, other than this conspiracy theory... haha... But you have brought out another very good point.

Thank you for the reaffirmation, buddy!! I cannot be sure cuz I am not in the US and dont wager on any of the overseas books... I am just basing off my years of experience by observing the line movements and juice changes offered by my local books, and I could tell the bigger money were on Seattle, even though the average consensus seemed to be 60-40 in favor of NE. But many thanks for confirming my observation.

Only my thought and observation... very suspicious and cannot be explained with a logical mind... So, I decide to share it here and hope to hear more feedbacks, whether in support of it or against it... It will be a good learning experience for me, and small price to pay for the longer-term.

Couldnt believe in my  eyes when Wilson even "threw" the ball on 2nd down, as opposed to handing it to a more reliable Lynch. If that failed, then you still have two more downs.

I made all my wagers thru this local sportsbook (the biggest in Taiwan, like the pinnacle of Taiwan). There are also lines maker in Taiwan that adjusts the line and juices in a constant manner for this sportsbook. Needless to say, this Sportsbook is like the universal (the biggest one and most reliable one, with over 15 years of history) wagering site in Taiwan; so, they will have very decent (and likely high-paid) lines maker for the sportsbook that will be more sharp than me and most average bettors. So, in my personal opinion, I think the linesetter probably sensed something fishy in Taiwan and made the lines and juices the way they were... I really couldnt tell for sure. Just odd that one team would stay at low-juice (86%) for like 10-hour period and changed to high-juice (96%) in the very last hour or so... Most of the times, the juice stay constant and only moved 1-2% off its standard range (94-95%). For a big game like this, and for the juice to move from 94% to 86% in 3 hours and stayed there for 10 hours, and then moved back to 96% in the last hour, it is very uncommon, and almost never seen before in a big, worldwide game like this... Just my thinking...