The plays Merril has on his ‘Fade the Public’ segment this week are:
New Orleans +3
Baltimore -2.5
Kansas City -5.5
For the season these plays are 39-23 or 63%.
These plays were 4-0 last week.
The plays were 7-1 the last two weeks.
The plays were 9-2 the last three weeks.
His leans have been doing well also the last few weeks.
The leans that did not make the cut were:
Washington +2.5
Green Bay -2
Last week it came up about whether there really is ‘public’ money and if the numbers that are posted are accurate.
I posted a link explaining that they are accurate and explained that a lot of people use these numbers. They obviously would not use these numbers if the numbers were inaccurate or simply made up.
This is a quote from another link referencing this point:
“In the past, public betting stats were largely inaccurate or only comprised a small subset of the bigger picture. However, legal online sportsbooks in the US have grown extremely efficient at record keeping. If a sportsbook posts public betting trends on social media, or in a daily newsletter, bettors can assume they’re fairly accurate.
Some sports media sites aggregate public betting data from a variety of sportsbooks. These stats are clearly even more accurate because they’re taken from a much larger sample size.”
Like Merril points out, the advantage you get over a season is that you are getting ‘adjusted line value’. Because when you are getting one-sided action you start to get an extra half-point or point.
This makes a difference over the span of a season. Especially, in December when the lines are very accurate.
But you usually see the public on favorites. But they have been hit pretty hard the last few weeks and maybe that is why there are actually some public dogs this week.
There is really only one public favorite this week. Which it is very rare to only have one public favorite for a week.
I am not saying that they win every week. Because even the public will be right sometimes. You will see times when the public and the professionals pretty much agree.
That is what makes it so interesting — they still have to play the games.
@undermysac
Steve Merril. He is a well known handicapper. He has done a segment for years on this.
You did not miss any past posts on these.
I have never posted them before.
I only posted them today to point out that there is public money and that there are people that use this to back up some of their plays or steer them away.
@chicubs09
Yessir. Those are HIS fade the public plays for this week.
They are not my plays. I did play KC. I went with the public on CAR -- but I have 2.5 and a few ket reasons I agree with the public on this one.
I also already played GB early in the week. I like the WAS lean but will likely wait until the very last minute or skip it. But a lot of guys I respect have both of those leans.
@chicubs09
I had them very big last week. I cannot see it this week.
I do not LOVE Carolina. I am not necessarily a 'trend' bettor.
But there is a super rare one that only comes around maybe 3-5 times per season. There are 3 example of it this week.
Carolina is one of them.
It is on road divisional favorites in the second matchup of the season. But you only bet on it if they lost the first matchup as a favorite.
The theory is you play a divisional rival and you get embarrassed at home.
This has only come up 32 times in the last 10 years.
These teams are 22-10 ATS (69%) and 25-7 SU (78%).
The teams this week are BLT, BUF, and CAR.
The only issue I have is that CAR is 0-11 in their last 11 games as a favorite or something like that.
I think Young is 1-2 as a favorite.
I just feel the matchup works out for a slightly better team in a bad division to not lose twice to a division rival while trying to get in the playoffs.
But it is the game I am the most shaky about.
@Raiders22
Yes the big concern is how bad carolina has been as a favorite. But this is a revenge game and they are off the bye and can take sole possession of 1st place after tampa lost thursday night. Carolina is the better team and saints i feel blew their wad with the upset win at tampa last week. Don't see the saints sweeping carolina for the season.
That is correct, Panthers as a favorite are 0-11 SU&ATS since 2021 & 0-3 SU&ATS as a road favorite. Carolina may be due?
The amount of bettors on one side means jack shit. You can have 100 covers bettors on buffalo with total amount of money wagered at lets just say 30k and you have 2 sharp bettors on the patriots with the total amount wagered at 40k.
sure on paper it looks like the books need the patriots cause of all those regular bettors betting buffalo.
So yeah all these so called sites can say all the bettors are on the buffalo, when in reality the books want buffalo to win.
Now if anybody believes that the sports books are gonna release those real numbers to all of us, please do yourself a favor and quit gambling today.
If i owned a book nobody outside of my operation would see those numbers. Common sense folks
When draft kings for example says that all the bettors are betting this team, that doesnt mean they want that side to lose. Its the amount wagered. Remember that. No book tells us they have 1 million on the bills and 2 million on the pats. Not happening.
@cd329
They provide both the % of the handle and the % of bets on both sides.
Folks can choose to use that information in whatever way they like or not to use it at all.
Books are not overly concerned about what folks would do or not do with the information. It does not really affect their bottomline in any way.
During the regular season they always will be lopsided on games here and there. They make the money up over the totality of the season.
Because they have an inherently built-in edge in every single game. So, they will always come out ahead in the long run.
Good luck with that, i have been doing this a long time and studied this percent stuff big time, even bought the best plan sports insights offered, who were the 1st to post these kinds of numbers. They were aligned with all the books and thats why they had the so called numbers. Long term using this stuff you will be lucky to hit 50 percent. Am just trying to save people time and money using this stuff. Doesnt matter if anybody believes what i say, at least i tried to help my fellow bettors.
I keep telling you, stop talking about percentage of bets, that means jack shit. You need total dollar amounts in actual dollar amounts, not percentages of handles. But hey keep doing what your doing if it makes you money.
Just know this, if the books were indeed putting out real numbers, all us bettors would be crushing them with the info and they would stop providing these numbers.
Books dont want bettors actually handicapping games, they want them basing their bets off these bogus numbers.
As far as merrill goes, the guy has been a paid tout forever and you can bet your ass hes made his money selling picks, not making bets. If his info was so good, he would be sitting on a beach somewhere with girls fanning him while he makes his bets and cashes out.
Hes having a good year with these numbers hes posting, but like i said these numbers will get you 50 percent long term.
Good luck thou, cause i dont want any fellow bettors to lose their money
Established in 1995,
on your plays 
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