Fade the Public Plays

Love it

Its been good this year.. 

Falcons were on the list this week too..

and another point about this info. Even if books did post dollar amounts, you still wont be able to know if the money is dumb money or smart money. Vegas was built on a very lot of very rich stupid bettors. The trick is to actually find somebody that owns or is a top level worker in a big sports book, then you will get the real info to actually help your bets

Also professional bettors, the real sharps hit between 53 percent and 57 percent(thats being very lucky) 

so just fading what all of us regular bettors bet, isnt going to get you a better percentage then those sharp bettors, so after calculating in the juice that you lose on bets, you will be close to that 49 -51 percent range, which will eat up your bankroll long term.

@cd329

This is not the way I bet.  

I will occasionally reference it just for a feel on what folks are doing.

I am simply pointing out that the information is readily available and that there are folks that do use it.

There have always been professionals I know that use this stuff and use it very well.

I am not sure those are the plays Merril is sending his clients.  There are others that post their 'fade the public' plays.  I am just aware of how well his usually do.

Anyone that actually makes a living betting is doing fine.  It is a way for some of them to get make extra income because they cannot always get enough down for obvious reasons.

If you are a known winning bettor folks are always trying to get plays from you.  They will gladly pay for them.  This is sort of a natural step in the space.

Very true.  It certainly helps to know whose money it is. 

Like I said, sometimes pros and public are on the same side.

@cd329

 Don’t understand why you think that it’s such a detriment to the books to release this information. Think about a scenario where they are actually being 100% honest.

1. Public and sharp money on the same side 70/30. If releasing this information is accurate you should attract contrarian players who are simply just fading for the sake of fading. All that will do is attract money on the other side which is exactly what any book would want. 50/50 split=guaranteed profit. 

2. Public on one side/sharp on the other. The handle is already lopsided. They move the line to adjust which will attract more public money to balance the books. Let’s use BAL/CIN as an example. If sharps are hammering BAL -2.5 and the public already likes CIN, then by moving the line to CIN +3 they’ll just attract more public money to CIN to help balance the books. The sharp money will slow significantly once they get to BAL -3 because they already got what they wanted at 2.5, before the key number of 3 was out or crossed. 

Things like this are why you see very late movement just before kickoff. Sharps will eat up short lines in advance if they think it makes sense, or they’ll wait until the very last minute to get the dog at the best number or to catch a critical middle opportunity. Just because you see a lopsided split right now doesn’t mean it will be lopsided at kickoff. Often times you’ll see the handle flip completely right before kickoff. This is why you have to be careful trying to steam chase during the week. You may think you’re on the sharp side while you watch the line move, but just before kickoff you might realize that the sharp side is just the opposite of what you thought it was. 

I can’t think of any reason why books would put out false information. First of all public players usually have their mind made up as soon as they see the schedule. They certainly aren’t going to completely change their opinion just because they see betting splits. And not to mention, at this point in the modern gambling world, there’s so much money on every game that has nothing to do with the side or total. Player props, lightning bets,teasers, Moneyline parlays, player prop parlays… All of these things are priced so that the player loses over the long run. I don’t think the books are nervous one bit to put out honest info about betting splits. All they want is action in every way possible. When you put a vig on every bet it’s impossible for them to lose over the course of a season. 

@brn2loslive2win

 all i can say is i have spent lots of time on this very subject and long term it was a dead end.  Am just trying to save fellow bettors time and money chasing info that wont make you a long term winner.

It took me awhile to realize the books giving me this info, was all nonsense.

If this info helps you then good luck, hope you win tons.

Like i have said a million times, books are not gonna give bettors any type of info that can make them better bettors. Thats just common sense, but if you believe them giving us the info doesnt hurt them, good for you.

@cd329

 Here’s another perspective on this whole thing. Most “public bettors” don’t even know what the line on a game is until Sunday morning. They wake up on gameday and say “I want to gamble! Football is on!”. 

There will be thousands of people who will wake up tomorrow and say I’m taking Houston -10.5! That defense is so good, they’re going to crush Arizona! My response to that would be you’re taking Houston-10.5?? -9.5 was available all week…

My point is that the majority of the betting public doesn’t give a shit about betting splits. They’ll bet the game at any number once they have their mind made up. Because team A is “better” than team B. And the books know this. You could tell your buddy tomorrow that you know a professional gambler that put 3 million on Indy tomorrow. They’re still going to tell you that they love Seattle and they want to take them -14, -15, -17, they don’t care. They know what they want and they have their minds made up.