Early grabs

@Raiders22

 That makes sense, thanks for the response. 

Why car only +2.5 @ (3-4)

playing broncos (6-2)

seems like a letdown spot broncos just took care of chiefs.

talk me out of taking panthers +2.5 large

 I agree with everything you said.

I also think DEN is very OVERRATED by the general public right now.  CAR at home after that disappointing showing last week is in a good spot with DEN having to travel there.

So, I cannot talk you out of it. 

@Raiders22

Carolina will also be fired up, motivated and determined to get to five hundred and to continue to sit on top of an already heavily contested toss up division.

@justliketoplay

 I agree.  Plus that division is up for grabs.

@Raiders22

@justliketoplay

 Both of you guys are awesome and I have nothing but respect…but how does “the spot” prevent Bryce young from getting destroyed by Denver’s pass rush? How does it keep Denver from running down their throats all day? 

I can see the angle where Bo has a shit game or Bryce finds some guys open in that secondary. But I just don’t see how you comfortably back a team that has an offensive line that just lost their best player, against a defense who will likely gameplan to absolutely terrorize the qb.

I’m ice cold recently so you guys are probably right. I just don’t understand the logic. I feel it’s been proven time and time again that betting on bad offensive lines vs strong defensive fronts is a recipe for disaster.

@brn2loslive2win

 Same situation as with CIN/ATL.  DEN does have a great pass rush.  BUT NOT a good pass defense.  Not quite as bad as CIN.  But I think Young can move around enough to have time to go downfield.

I am not sure it is a 'comfortable backing' of Young.  He generally has been better at home.  

Bo is awful to me.  The question is will he have a 'good' game.

DEN 3rd in pressure% at 40.3%

Rtg against is 80.6   BUT PS/Play is 29th at .123.  

Young rtg 89.1

Young at home rtg 95.8

But he is not so good under pressure.  So, it can go either way.

I think the key is more is how bad Nix is.

Nix rtg 83.6.

Nix away rtg 80.5

Nix under pressure rtg 31.1

Nix away under pressure rtg 33

@Raiders22

 I get it. I’m not a Bo fan myself. Matter of fact I have bo ranked just below cam Ward and even with Deshaun Watson and Daniel jones. 

Also have Denver ranked 3 for offensive line vs Carolina at 26. Denver defensive front ranked 6 vs Carolina at 25. 

I just don’t see it with Carolina but like I said, I’ve been dead wrong for three straight weeks now. 

You could be right.  It is not like CAR is great

I will obviously reassess.  But it is hard to get away from it I think.

@Raiders22

 Then again, my model values the offensive line more than any other unit on the field including the quarterback. I strongly believe that even good quarterbacks will fail over the course of the season behind a bad line. But again I’m probably not the guy you want to listen to at the moment. 

Definitely not trying to talk you out of your play. More or less just trying to understand it and see what I’m missing. 

@brn2loslive2win

 As far as "the spot" for Denver...

"The Broncos haven't had a bye yet, and it follows this game. This will be their 4th road game in 6 weeks. They had OT vs the Seahawks in week 6 on TNF. This will be the Broncos first time traveling to the East Coast, and the game is at noon.

They just beat division rival Chiefs, in a hell of game, it was high leverage stuff."

Just a reply I had for you on my thread. Maybe I value stuff like that more than others. I don't have sdql stuff to back it up, just things I've looked for, for a long time.

Big Niner came back with trends that dispelled my thoughts about Denver the week before a bye.

Good stuff

@brn2loslive2win

Even with hunt being out for carolina, denver has sustained some injury scares as well with their game last week with Denver when cornerback kris abrams left the game in the second quarter with an injury to his ankle and Safety Brandon Jones was out for the second half due to a aggravated hamstring.

Both are expected to play for Denver but will they be 100% is the question as well.

The line respects the Panthers at home and with the line very weary of giving more than a field goal in this game I'm stuck with 2.5 at the moment and I'm okay with that because though I would like to get a field goal for insurance I'm not going to pay for it because I believe Carolina prevails here and ends the Broncos four game winning streak and Carolinas two game losing streak 

No.  I think that is good insight.  The issue I always have is figuring O-Line injuries and replacements effectively.

@undermysac

 I did catch that and I do appreciate that Denver is literally in a tough spot. I just have such a hard time ignoring factual evidence in order to bank on a hypothetical scenario that a team will play poorly because they are in a bad spot. But as I’ve said all over the place I’m not picking winners right now and you guys are. So I respect the opinions and definitely understand the points being made. 

Offensive WAR:

CAR          1.8

DEN         -.3

Defensive WAR:

CAR         1.0

DEN        1.8

Efficiency numbers to me would point to an outright CAR win.  
That would just be value on the CAR side to me on just those numbers.  Whether DEN defense can make CAR offense less efficient is key to me.

But DEN is a well coached team and is winning because they are better than a lot of teams at overcoming their deficiencies.  

@brn2loslive2win

 It doesn’t matter if you are on a cold streak.  We all go through those.  
That does not take away from your good insight.  

But I will look more into that game tomorrow.  Maybe I drop it off.  
But I don’t see me jumping on DEN. 

@Raiders22

@Raiders22

 
Any read on the Lions this week? I just fired on 6.5. Looking like the smart guys are on Miami. I’m hoping this is another “don’t overthink it” spot like the jags were last night. At less than a TD it seems almost foolish to pass on. But hopefully it’s not another…bad spot!! 

@brn2loslive2win

 I like MIA.  Got a small play at 7.5 just to see at open.  But never could add because the juice kept going up until it dropped to 7 and now at 6.5.

I made the line DET -6.9.

I like MIA in early games when northern or does teams come down there and they play the 1:00 games.  Because MIA wears white and makes the other team wear dark.

It really does seem to tire them out.

But the weather seems to be overcast and maybe rainy.

Most of the guys I know have taken a position on MIA.

The issue is DET brings a well-balanced offense and defense to town.  MIA is weak against the pass defense and pass rush.  So, it is not like the last couple of games where they could take away something.  DET will just attack whatever they can.

The move through the key number is for sure pro money.  

If it gets back to a good 7/7.5 I might get on them.  But for now I am going to skip it.

But I think you are on the right side.

@brn2loslive2win

 I will say I think I am 3-2 taking MIA so far this year.  So, I have been trying to time them at a good point to skip.

@brn2loslive2win

You got the right team because I would ask one who is taking Miami is what can the dolphins do for you? (home or not) you play a 1-6 team your most likely going to grt a 1-7 team when all is said and done.

With that division leading vikings being 6-1 and Chicago at 6-2 Lions will be playing fiercely (pun intended) because they sure don't want to fall to 5-3 and coupled with a green bay win puts the Lions in last place in the North.

6-3 looks much better for Detroit watching both division leaders Vikings and Chicago playing on Sunday and Monday night games respectively with the Lions a chance to gain solid ground in the tough NFC North Division from a loss from either teams, or possibly both teams.

Good luck Buddy I believe as Raiders22 has said....your on the right side and a very good line I might add. 

@Raiders22

 I’ve done well with Miami myself and I was very tempted to take the 7+. On a week where the models like almost every single dog the one favorite it points to is Detroit at -9/9.5. And thinking about it further it’s one of the ones I actually trust. Detroit shouldn’t have to do anything extraordinary, Miami might just beat themselves. I love the fight Miami is putting up lately but this is a step up in class. You’re talking about one of the league’s most vulnerable secondaries, I believe 29th in EPA vs the pass?, against one of the most dangerous offensive units. And Malik Willis, who I’m actually starting to like a lot, behind a porous o line. 

I have my doubts. Miami might be able to score easily. But we’ll see if Detroit can get a few stops. My biggest concern is the gambler, Dan Campbell. All it takes is a few failed fourth downs and Miami might be able to win outright. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. 

@justliketoplay

 I’m a little nervous but sometimes you gotta lay the number and hope the favorite does its job. It could end up being a very chalky week for me which is especially scary because I’ll be going against the pros in a few games. I will put out a disclaimer though. If you were to fade my plays for three weeks in a row you’d be doing really well.