Record: 51-33-1
(pending Eagles MNF..)
Lines are feeling tighter and tighter as we get deeper into the season. My preliminary system lines for week 8 were able to identify about 6 games that are off 2 pts compared to opening market lines so I will focus on those. The other good chunk there are some games right exactly on the market number and several within 0.5 to 1 pts. Line watching will be more key this week. 
Ravens vs Bills
My line says it should be Bills -5.5, the current market has it at -3.5. Are they comfortable being exposed to as much Bills money as possible with this line or is my line overreacting to the Ravens epic meltdown? So far, looks like the consensus(regular Joes and maybe some pro money) is on Buffalo.
Bills have never lost a game after a Bye with Josh Allen. They are 8-0 SU 6-2 ATS, with the margin of victory after a BYE as follows: 3 @ home, 10 @home, 10 @home, 15 @home, 10 @home, 3 @road, 25 @home, 31@road. Bills should cover this number comfortably given their favorable situational spot while benefitting from Ravens misfortunes.
Lamar Jackson's chances of playing are improving, but there's no guarantee he will be out there this Sunday. It's possible he may not be ready for another week. With rookie guard stud Ioane Vega also injured last game, the O-line protection is looking shakier. With Jackson obviously not 100%, it could be risky to have him out there.
While I am this close to hitting submit on the Bills, there is a thought that is preventing me from doing so as of now. All those wins I mentioned in the past were with Bills teams fielding at least a top 15 defensive unit or better. The 2026 Bills defense is far from that but the offense is still certainly humming. They have won by an avg margin of 9 pts in their 2 victories at home this season.
It will be interesting to see which version of the Ravens show up and who is playing. It is kinda tough to gauge this team right now they are certainly capable of playing the Bills close if they have their heads screwed on right. Fading Ravens 2H might be the smartest bet if they are in the lead by more than a TD.
Your welcome skoonr3, thanks for stopping by
2 good preseasons in a row and finally it's been awhile since I had a good preseason continuing through into the regular season could never have one or the other except maybe once lol
Updated record: 51-35-1
TNF: Panthers vs Packers
Some interesting things to point out. Matt Lafleur's records on Thursday nights with Aaron Rodgers(2019-2022) was 3-2 SUATS, both losses were at home. Thursday nights with Jordan Love(2023-present) record 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, but 2-2 SUATS at home. Overall 2-4 SUATS on home Thursday games under Lafleur. Packers don't quite have the same home field advantage under Love. They're just 18-10 SU at home, ATS cover most likely slight worse than their SU record. Against NFC South, Jordan Love is just 4-4 SU, 3-5 or 2-5-1 ATS depending what spread you had in the Bucs/Packers game this season. Most recent home loss was against the Falcons. Also, they lost to the Panthers last season as 13 pt home favorites. Remember that one? Panthers were 13 pt road dogs last Nov. 1st and fast forward nearly 1 year later they're only 3.5 pt road dogs here. What a difference a year makes. The scenario we have here is just about identical. Last year, Panthers get blown out by 31 in the preceding game against the Bills at home, falling to 4-4 on the season before facing Packers. This year, Panthers get blown out by 30 at home against the Bucs at home, falling to 3-3 on the season before facing the Packers. Bettors will remember the blowout loss and fade that team heavy in the next game. What have the Panthers done after they lose and don't cover? They are 8-3 SU, 11-0 ATS in regular season after a loss dating back to last season all dog lines except for one game.
I like teams that get their shit kicked in, they will be more motivated the next game. Plus the fact this group has won here before they shouldn't feel intimidated in the slightest even if it is a primetime game Bryce Young is getting more acclimated to the NFL spotlight where he got his first primetime win against Lions this season. He may be 1-3 SU in primetime games, but ATS record is now 2-1-1. Another win would garner more exposure for his team. With some major injuries to the Packers offensive line, most notably at Center and their inability to run the ball effectively, I feel the Panthers might be able to take advantage in the trenches and attack the Packers one dimensional offense. Panthers offense should have similar success moving the ball against this Packers defense like the Lions did. To top it off, I am also counting on the Packers kicker to goof things up again. Smack has missed 5 field goal kicks which is just as bad as that Rams kicker that got cut. Special teams has always been a thorn for LaFleur, makes sense coming from the McVay coaching tree. Could mean all the difference in covering the spread.
Panthers +3.5(-104)
Panthers ml +166 *small*
Established in 1995,
buddy @Digitalkarma
Hot Forum Topics
