***** DIVISIONAL ROUND --- Smitty's Divisional NFL Playoff Winners ******

 Guru 

@asmth14

 To the top

Cheers boys.

Side note... the only game I have not been on the right side thus far is the very first postseason game. Sometimes life happens & these Saturday games make it difficult to cap the way I normally would.  It's not gambling if you know you're gonna win These are the times you wish the season was not about to end.

@asmth14

 Let's go your cooking 

Nice run. I guess my crystal ball broke in the Denver game. Pass interference no call at end of regulation saved your skin not to mention buffalo was -140 in o.t.

Congratulations on the great run. Good luck the rest of the way. 

What a legend, thank you sir 

@asmth14

 More more moar!

NE ticked up to +3.5. Passing first game?

@Cougarsports

 rather -3.5 oops

Texans v Patriots

The two hottest teams in the league clash today, with Houston coming in having won 9 straight, while the Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games. Something's gotta give. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 meetings against these New England Patriots. One thing no one seems to be mentioning is that the last time these two teams played was Drake Maye's very first start. While he showed promise, he has come a long way since then.

The final score of that came out to be a whopping 41-21 Texan beatdown of the Patriots. Texans have won 3 of their last 4 meetings against New England despite historically having little success against New England ( you can thank Tom Brady for a lot of that ). 

The winner goes to the AFC Championship game. The Texans have also won 5 straight road games.

The Patriots have been knocked for a weak schedule all season long. I always say ... you can only play what is in front of you, and theyve successfully transformed into a top-10 offense and defense. The most important thing in this particular matchup is the Pats offensive line improved from one year ago being 31st to now 7th in pass-blocking efficiency. They allowed just 13 sacks all year.

The Texans will be by far the most pressure they've faced all season, as Houston ranks #1 in total defense & #8 in sack percentage. The Pats offense this year went back to the formula that made Brady/ Belichick successful for so many years--- utilizing a deep recieving corps & not relying on any one individual superstar. 

With all that said, their defense , though significantly improved was not perfect. They were 4th in points allowed and 6th against the run, but were 22nd in sacks , with their pass rush being a weak point, which will make things interesting after Stroud had pressure in his face all game despite cruising to a blowout last Monday Night.

On a short week, I think it is reasonable to believe Houston won't be able to prepare for a infinitely superior Quarterback with an incredible arm, not to mention a running back coming in running the ball as well as Rhamondre Stevenson has, who has averaged 8.9 yards per carry his last 5 games, and has been equally as lethal as a reciever. 

One thing that people are not talking about enough is although the Pats went 15-3 , their running game has only gotten better over as I just alluded to, their defense has allowed just over 7 ppg the last 3 games and everything is truly " coming to fruition" with this squad. 

They are, quite frankly , the most balanced team in the league. The Pats defense has come a long way since their last meeting , you bet your ass Drake Maye has had this game circled since the 2024 season and wants a little redemption and both their offense & defense are vastly improved.

One caveat & thing to watch is the Pats defense was third worst in the league in the red zone, giving up a whipping 67.5% touchdown rate ( and against mostly below average offenses ). That being said, Stroud looked AWFUL last weekend despite the blowout, and the Steelers simply quit in the 4th qtr. Do we really expect Drake Maye to suddenly not take care of the ball after having 31 TDs to 8 INTs in his first full season as a pro? News flash--- this guy is the real deal, Rhamondre Stevenson is turning into an elite RB in his prime before our eyes, and the Texans just simply aren't there yet. Stevenson, like " Woody" Marks was a 4th round NFL draft pick, so they have that in common . But Stevenson has a lot more experience under his belt, & I truly believe this Texans offense is not yet where it needs to be.

Yes, the Texans defensive unit has been the best all season long, and is only getting better as they go along. They have the best front four, and they consistently pressure the quarterback. They are top 10 at stuffing the run and were third in takeaways. They have an all-pro CB tandem and can absolutely lock down anyone, as we witnessed DK Metcalf & co. getting no traction in Pittsburgh last weak.

This team is fearless .... but their offense has been largely inconsistent . Yes, CJ Stroud is improving marginally, tossing 19 TDs to 8 INTs , leaning on the run game and defense this year. Maybe his style is perfect for just how physical this defense is, as the running game led by "Woody" Marks has been a pleasant surprise.. Though he started the season very slow ( to be expected... as he was drafted in the 4th rd @ 116 overall and traded to Houston) he has cemented a starting spot and likely surpassed Chubb for good, as their gameplan consistently is all about physicality, control and eliminating 3rd and longs. He has had fantastic ball protection and last weekend both backs had a combined 5.3 YPC against the Steelers, with Marks running for 112 yds & a touchdown. That said, that game is an outlier, as he has averaged 3.6 YPC and still has a long way to go, though he has all the potential in the world.

Nick Caley , who previously had experience as a tight ends & passing game coordinator has done a fantastic job as a first year offensive coordinator . But he, too, has a long way to go. This is a roster full of potential . Heck CJ Stroud is only 24 yrs old.

One problem. Landry, Tonga & Christian Gonzalez are all active for the Patriots , all of which were initially questionable. Hence, you will definitely get the Patriots best effort this afternoon. Meanwhile, Nico Collins is out as expected for Houston. Yes, he didn't do much against Pittsburgh, but again, an outlier.

Typically , if Nico Collins isn't productive, neither id this Texans offense.

Today, gets out-physicaled by the better , more balanced team.

The Plays:

Patriots -3 --- 7u Play Of The Day

Patriots Ov. 21.5 Pts ----7u Play Of The Day

@asmth14

 Nice post after game already started. Figures. Plus line was -3.5. Not value added.

@Cougarsports

 Hey bud-- I don't owe you anything. Good Luck with your Houston bet.

Love this play good luck brother nice to see you posting

@ROCKON

 Thanks Rock-- Good to see ya man! 

Best of luck. 

Just as a side note:  When I post on here or send write-ups to some of my guys is when I take it myself -- People can always use a live book like DraftKings or offshore book for any action, even right when the game is starting.  It takes me awhile to do this -- I'm just trying to help some people out here while I make money.  

If anyone wants to fade me, feel free. No one wins every game.  But it usually doesn't end well fading me is all I can say.

Good luck tonight boys.

2nd Half

Line is flipping back and forth from 2H Pats +0.5 to 2H Pats -0.5...

Shouldn't matter but I always advise taking best line possible so I'm gonna hammer

2ND HALF

PATS 2H +0.5

&

2H ML -115

Two Plays. 5U Each. Hammer Time.

??for the Rams/Bears pick. LFG!

Great calls. Thanks 

NE

Congrats. I was on the wrong side side 

Will post shortly...

I'm not gonna go quite as in depth in this next game because it takes me awhile to put together my thoughts to that extent, but the level of confidence is the same.

POSTED COVERS NFL PLAYOFF RECORD---

10-4

PERSONAL NFL PLAYOFF RUN:

25-10 [71.5%]

Let’s go