Denver Broncos +4.5: The Gift of the Playoffs.

This is a long, comprehensive thread where I am hoping to highlight why Denver +4.5 is the correct side to this Conference Championship game and why this is my largest wager of the year. Truly, a gift before the SB. Lets break it down.

I have been following the Patriots closely all year. I have watched every game they played, start to finish since the season started. I am not some NE super fan, no. I am a Mike Vrabel fan. So much so that I bet him for COY at 10/1 odds. I like his demeanor, I think he is a players coach, and I figured that he would have a favorable situation taking this team to the playoffs against a pretty easy schedule. I never would have imagined that they would be one game way from the SB, however. The Patriots have managed to beat the teams that have been placed in front of them. That includes a gutsy win against the Ravens on the road to close out the year, as well as a season split against a very good Bills team. They handled the Chargers, and thanks to CJ Stroud, they beat the Texans rather convincingly. 

Probably the most important thing to point out about this line is that the **LOOK AHEAD** line was Denver -2 at home. This was the line before the Nix injury. The line seats at. Denver +4.5/5 at most books, meaning that the Bo Nix is worth 7 Points?!?!?! I think that this is a massive market overcorrection. This line should be closer to NE -1 or NE -2, as Bo Nix is probably worth closer to 4 points with regards to the spread. This means that we are getting almost 3 points of added value in a playoff game, which is huge, especially considering that the line seems to sit at the key number of 4.5. 

This is a spot where you just have to bet Denver blindly because of the number. You are getting the home team, at altitude, with a much better defense, a comparable offense (with a better offensive line), and with an elite super bowl winning coach who will have his team ready getting 4.5 points....

You couldn't spell it out any better...

Denver is playing this AFCCG at HOME at altitude with a veteran back up QB who throws passes very softly and deftly. True, he doesn't run as well as Bo but his leadership is about to Shine with HC Sean Payton's playoff experience. Sean Payton went "public " in AUGUST saying this looks like a Super Bowl Team...he was right and has his team right there to achieve that premonition...just beat this overachiever Pats squad that HC Vrabel has done an Unreal coaching job with. ..Hats off...but you ain't going to SB...

I'm taking points, playing ML, and ar least -'2'..this is Broncos year to make the Super Bowl..actually unbelievable but they Deserve it

Jarrett Stidham:

He was selected in the 4th round by none other than the NE Patriots, and by OC Josh McDaniels at the time. He was a backup to Tom Brady. He was a day 1 acquisition by Sean Payton when he took over as the Broncos Head Coach. This means that two very good offensive minded coaches thought highly of him, both to draft him and in the Broncos case to sign him as their backup AND to offer him an extension.

No, he has not had a ton of playing time, but he has been in the league for years. I would encourage you to go and watch the Chase Daniel video breaking down his NFL games. The last time he played in the regular season was the last two games of the 2023 season. In that season, he started 2 games, going 1-1. He completed 40/66 passes, completing 60% of his passes, and throwing for 2 TDs and 1 interception. He took 7 sacks in those two games, and finished with a QB rating of 87.7. The last film on him is from the preseason of this year, where he played against SF 49ers and the Cardinals. You can watch the Youtube video by Chase Daniel called "can Jarrett Stidham save the Broncos? QB Film Breakdown.

If Stidham can just play in the Sean Payton offense and not try to be like CJ Stroud from the week prior and force throws that aren't there, he should give the Broncs a good chance of winning this game outright at home.

Important Facts/Trends:

-Sean Payton's career record with backup QBs is 17-5

-In the playoffs, home underdogs of 4+ points or more are 9-0 ATS

-Since 2002, in the playoffs, teams that played an OT game the week prior are just 6-13 SU

-Since 2015, those same teams that played in OT are 1-4 ATS (Highlights bad spot for the Broncos/Rams) losing by 15 points per game and are 0-5 SU

-Patriots historically have never won on the road in Denver, they are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS

I have watched every game the Broncos have played start to finish. They are elite at most positions. 6 all-pro selections this year should tell you something. 4 of their coaches being interviewed for head coaching jobs is also a testament to how well they are coached. I don't see how they won't be victorious this one.

@best_bets

 It's the Defense that's going to have a field day pressuring Maye.that will be the Biggest mismatch.....this won't be close as Broncos follow their season long footprint...play great Defense,  control the clock and don't make mistakes...pretty simple

HC Sean Payton knows what he's doing 

Such an exciting time to be a Bronco Fan 

@Crusher13

 Exactly! 

@Crusher13

 Exactly! 

you make a compelling case stidham actually is a good backup

You might be look at those OT threads and getting nervous about betting Denver. It is a legitimate questions and cause for concern. However, Denver did get the first round bye and so they do have somewhat of a rest advantage. Also, the patriots played an extremely physical Houston defense. They didn't exactly walk into the Conference Championship game like the Seattle Seahawks. 

Furthermore, it should be noted that in the last 2 playoff games, Drake Maye has been sacked a total of 10 times (5 each game). This is favorable for the Denver Broncos. Although Maye has shown that he can be quite mobile and move within and out of the pocket (in addition to his deep ball accuracy), he has been sacked and coughed the ball up when pressured. Denver has one of the best defenses, with pro-bowlers at ever level (DT Zak Allen, EDGE Nik Bonnito, and CB Pat Surtain).  

Looking at the Patriots offensive line, I think it will be tough for a 34 year old Veteran Morgan Moses and a Rookie LT Will Campbell to provide protection for Maye, especially against an elite pass rush. The noise in Denver will also make it even more challenging for the patriots. Yes, the Patriots were 8-0 on the road this year, and there is something about them showing up on the road, but they haven't been in a situation like this: a playoff game, in altitude, at arguably one of the loudest and most difficult places to play. 

Position by Position:

QB - Patriots: the edge goes to Drake Maye and what he has been able to do with that Patriots offense

RB - Equal: RJ Harvey and Trayveon Henderson, I would argue are a wash as backups and both J.K Dobbins and Rhamondre Stevenson

WR - Patriots: Boutte has elevated his play, Demario Douglas has been excellent all season, and Stefon Diggs is playing like his old self in Buffalo. Mack Hollins being injured hurts the patriots)

TE - Patriots: Hunter Henry >> Engram - Henry is more reliable, with better hands, and better in the trenches

OL - Broncos: Futures two pro-bowlers Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz

DL - Broncos: I would grade out Milton Williams as the best DL between the two teams, but collectively I think that the edge goes to Denver with Zak Allen and John Franklin Meyers

LB - Broncos: Greenlaw, Singleton, and Bonnito >> Harold Landry and Robert Spillan, Broncos linebackers are better in coverage, and Bonnito is a better pass rusher than Landry

DB - Broncos: Surtain will shut down half of the field, and Hufanga has excellent ball skills and can also lay the wood on receivers crossing the middle, just look at what he did to the Bills TE last week. 

K - Equal

Games are won by teams, and not by individual players. Patriots have a very well coached and talented team, but I think the best unit on the field, the Denver defense, will show up big time to play and will force turnovers and get Denver the ball in favorable field position.

I need more convincing

@Hesed55

 Overwhelming number of bets have come on the patriots, yet the line is moving from -5.5 to now -4.5 at almost every book should tell you something....

its a trap!

@rosswin97

Normally I do not like to bet on back-up QBs or rookie QBs. However, I think this situation calls for a reasonable exception. The QB has an excellent, mastermind, SB winning head coach who thinks highly of him. You can see it in the way they both have spoken at press conferences this week. Stidham knows that he has the support of the coaches, his teammates, and the city. He knows he doesn't have to be Josh Allen and put his entire team on his back. All he has to do is be a game manager behind the #2 graded offensive line, and dink and dunk the ball down the field and play field position. if he takes care of the ball and makes good decisions, they will cover the 4.5 points and will likely win outright...

I did take them at 12/1 to win the SB. Allows for good hedging opportunity. 

@lordbettington

Listen, anything can happen. It is football. Remember the last second Eagles FG block against the Rams earlier this year that was run back for a TD by the DT Jordan Davis? The Pats could win this game by 2 field goals and win by margin. They could also lose outright. That is why we watch the games on Sunday..

Some say that 4.5 to 5.5 is a dead number/no mans land, and usually with these lines you want to take the favorite. I just don't see Denver rolling over and dying. They know that the public isn't giving them a chance. Fallen player theory, the guys will get up for this game and will come out looking to dominate. The place will be rocking. 

Send your thoughts/comments and trends...

Also, I think the move is to go:

Denver ML

Denver +4.5 LARGE

Denver +10.5/Rams +8.5

Seattle ML

Third matchup between Seattle and Rams. Rams on the road, playing divisional opponent where they split the season series 1-1. This is an AWFUL situational spot for Stafford and the Rams. I think it is their 6th game on the road out of the last 8 games, after a brutal, lengthy, overtime thriller against a physical bears team. They play a SeaHawks team that had a first round bye, and basically played half of a game against the 49ers. The only thing that sort of scares me about this is Sam Darnold in another high pressure, spotlight game. This would be an excellent spot to try to middle the game, hoping for a Seattle win but not a blowout. The game should be close but the spot favors Seattle.

Broncos defense hasn't looked right since Jags game. Plus, No one wants to see Broncos in the SB except bronco fans. Would be low in viewership

@Hesed55

 What does that have to do with wagering on the game with the point spread?

Nobody wants to see a boring, vanilla NE team that has played a rather easy schedule and hasnt been tested in the playoffs. They faced off against arguably the two worst offensive lines in the Chargers and Texans. This Broncos line can run and pass block and they are going to smash NE in the mouth.

@Hesed55

 So, you're speaking for the masses? How insightful. 

GL  this weekend I like your style mah man @Ih8coldweather

 &  or vice versa 

denver ml

@Macwestie1

 Good luck this week my Mac! 

Good luck.