Posted:
#51
***** Correction AFTER MN
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***BIGGEST WAGER SINCE LAST YEARS SUPER BOWL----SAINTS VS FALCONS***
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by TomE:
This logic I believe is very faulty. It assumes that because Atl gained 500 yards of offense vs NO 363 but the Saints benefited because Alt scored FGs vs the Saints TDs that this will occur in the rematch. It further extrapolates that Atl with extra rest will score the TDs this time and come out on top because they also want revenge. Dangerous assumptions for one's bankroll.
The problem is that it fails to consider the extremely obvious but absolute truth that Atl was at HOME in that match up and the Saints were on the road. HF advantage is generally considered a 3 pt edge in the NFL. I believe these two dome teams' HFA is actually more. When these teams "bring it' at home, especially on Prime Time with their crowds giving the away team the handicap of running an offense when they can't hear shit resulting in False Start and such penalties, I believe the HFA can be considered a TD or more depending on the circumstances. That's not even really accounting for how the home team gets extra inspiration from the home crowd cheering for them. Also, the away team often gets very frustrated and this all too often results in really stupid penalties...15 yard Unsportsmanlike and Personal Foul penalties. That's why many of these games become blow outs.
Should Have, Could Have, and Would Have are poor handicapping tools. What did happen is a much better predictor.
The fact that Atl LOST by 3 AT HOME in spite of the advantage I just delineated should be telling you a boatload. They are not that good a team. They are a good team IMO, but not as good as NO. The fact that NO won having to overcome the handicap and burden of winning in Atl should be telling you that they are better than you give them credit for by looking at yardage stats. Assuming you are going to be seeing similar stats in the rematch is wrong thinking IMO. Also, I'm not going to discuss the "revenge" much, but I learned years ago "you don't get revenge on the road". Believe it or not, I did not come by this realization cheaply. You smack your head against a wall enough, you will eventually split your skill or realize not to do that any more!
This time, the game is in NO. I'm sorry to break it to you, but this game is more likely to be a blowout by NO than a close game and to cap that Atl wins straight up is sheer fantasy.
Here's the NO home Prime Time games this season:
SN vs Colts 62-7 , MN vs NYG 49-24, SN vs Det 31-17
Yeah, Ind is a bad team...but 62-7? That should be screaming out some reality to you. Beating NYG and Det convincingly is a clue that Atl is going so suffer a similar fate.
These stats are good indicators:
NO: (all ATS) as a fav 9-3, home 6-0, 3-0 prime time with the narrowest victory "only" 14 points. 5-1 when playing a team with a winning record.
Atl: 2-3 as a dog, 3-4 road, 1-3 vs team with a winning record.
Look at those trends carefully because if you consider them together, that's how I would mathematically estimate your chances of being right. Slim, Slimmer, and None and Slim already left town. LOL
I already explained in a previous post here that both teams have the same basic motivations and neither team has a MUST WIN game here and now.. To say that Atl's motivation of not giving up ground with their two game lead as a wild card team is more important that NO's motivation of wanting to win an all important #2 seed is not too bright or insightful IMO.
Neither team MUST WIN this game, both WANT TO win this game and there is a huge difference.
That being the case, I say to use the KISS (keep it simple stupid) method of handicapping and just realize and accept that the home field advantage in this match up is what is going to make the biggest difference. The place will be rockin', the crowd will be pumped, loud, and rowdy. One team will be fighting against the current, the other going with the flow. That is HUGE!!!!!!
That is not to say that any given Sunday, that anything can't happen doesn't have a measure of truth. I am saying that for me, I will go with the odds, and absolutely NOT pick Atl in this game. I love NO on a teaser, and even -7 I think is a reasonable play. I think Atl ML is just flushing money down the toilet. Atl +7 is playing with fire. Even Atl +13 IMO is not a sure thing. That's how I break down these 4 possible outcomes here and that's how my money will vote.
Anyway, we can debate all we want for what it matters. After SN, one of us will be right, and the other wrong.
No matter, I sincerely wish you the BOL which ever way you wager.
This logic I believe is very faulty. It assumes that because Atl gained 500 yards of offense vs NO 363 but the Saints benefited because Alt scored FGs vs the Saints TDs that this will occur in the rematch. It further extrapolates that Atl with extra rest will score the TDs this time and come out on top because they also want revenge. Dangerous assumptions for one's bankroll.
The problem is that it fails to consider the extremely obvious but absolute truth that Atl was at HOME in that match up and the Saints were on the road. HF advantage is generally considered a 3 pt edge in the NFL. I believe these two dome teams' HFA is actually more. When these teams "bring it' at home, especially on Prime Time with their crowds giving the away team the handicap of running an offense when they can't hear shit resulting in False Start and such penalties, I believe the HFA can be considered a TD or more depending on the circumstances. That's not even really accounting for how the home team gets extra inspiration from the home crowd cheering for them. Also, the away team often gets very frustrated and this all too often results in really stupid penalties...15 yard Unsportsmanlike and Personal Foul penalties. That's why many of these games become blow outs.
Should Have, Could Have, and Would Have are poor handicapping tools. What did happen is a much better predictor.
The fact that Atl LOST by 3 AT HOME in spite of the advantage I just delineated should be telling you a boatload. They are not that good a team. They are a good team IMO, but not as good as NO. The fact that NO won having to overcome the handicap and burden of winning in Atl should be telling you that they are better than you give them credit for by looking at yardage stats. Assuming you are going to be seeing similar stats in the rematch is wrong thinking IMO. Also, I'm not going to discuss the "revenge" much, but I learned years ago "you don't get revenge on the road". Believe it or not, I did not come by this realization cheaply. You smack your head against a wall enough, you will eventually split your skill or realize not to do that any more!
This time, the game is in NO. I'm sorry to break it to you, but this game is more likely to be a blowout by NO than a close game and to cap that Atl wins straight up is sheer fantasy.
Here's the NO home Prime Time games this season:
SN vs Colts 62-7 , MN vs NYG 49-24, SN vs Det 31-17
Yeah, Ind is a bad team...but 62-7? That should be screaming out some reality to you. Beating NYG and Det convincingly is a clue that Atl is going so suffer a similar fate.
These stats are good indicators:
NO: (all ATS) as a fav 9-3, home 6-0, 3-0 prime time with the narrowest victory "only" 14 points. 5-1 when playing a team with a winning record.
Atl: 2-3 as a dog, 3-4 road, 1-3 vs team with a winning record.
Look at those trends carefully because if you consider them together, that's how I would mathematically estimate your chances of being right. Slim, Slimmer, and None and Slim already left town. LOL
I already explained in a previous post here that both teams have the same basic motivations and neither team has a MUST WIN game here and now.. To say that Atl's motivation of not giving up ground with their two game lead as a wild card team is more important that NO's motivation of wanting to win an all important #2 seed is not too bright or insightful IMO.
Neither team MUST WIN this game, both WANT TO win this game and there is a huge difference.
That being the case, I say to use the KISS (keep it simple stupid) method of handicapping and just realize and accept that the home field advantage in this match up is what is going to make the biggest difference. The place will be rockin', the crowd will be pumped, loud, and rowdy. One team will be fighting against the current, the other going with the flow. That is HUGE!!!!!!
That is not to say that any given Sunday, that anything can't happen doesn't have a measure of truth. I am saying that for me, I will go with the odds, and absolutely NOT pick Atl in this game. I love NO on a teaser, and even -7 I think is a reasonable play. I think Atl ML is just flushing money down the toilet. Atl +7 is playing with fire. Even Atl +13 IMO is not a sure thing. That's how I break down these 4 possible outcomes here and that's how my money will vote.
Anyway, we can debate all we want for what it matters. After SN, one of us will be right, and the other wrong.
No matter, I sincerely wish you the BOL which ever way you wager.
I Agree 
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Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
How do you figure the 49ers play well on the road? They lost their last 2 games on the road................
It's easy to figure. They are 4-2 ATS on the road. In the NFL that is damn good.
Also, your two quoted loses are @ Ari which is a divisional rival (tough road games) and after a let down (division clinching win). The other loss you are referring to was @ Balt on a very short week. That is simply an extremely brutal spot. Neither loss is all that shocking.
That said, It's Sea or pass for me.
Sea is in MUST WIN mode, SF is in WANT TO WIN mode. Sea has been a very good home team 16-8 ATS L3 seasons. That is really good. They also beat Balt @ home. It's also a divisional rivalry Home Dog system pick (strong system) and SF is on the road as a fav AFTER a MN home win (that's a go against) with the short week. . Also, revenge (AT HOME!!!!) is a reasonable factor as well in this spot.
It's a good spot for Sea and a bad spot for SF.
I agree with your pick Sea!
SF had an extremely emotional win MN (beating Pit, a real feather in their cap- I heard some Niner's saying "statement " game beforehand so you know it wasn't just any old game for them) and this definitely qualifies as a LET DOWN spot. I already swore to myself I will not ignore let downs any more and I'm certainly going to respect that here.
BOL I think the force is with you on this one..
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Posted:
#54
PTB,
I also like your NYG and SD picks. Not so sure that the ML for Sea, NYG, SD is the best way to go...but ATS I definitely am interested in all 3 of those ideas. Getting approx a FG with each and all 3 of those teams in MUST WIN mode is good handicapping. Why risk a win vs a loss to take the ML when you can get a couple of all important points and salvage a winner if they lose a close one? Not convinced that trying to nail + 125, +125, + 130 is really worth not taking the points.
Anyway, SD on fire. Sea rolling lately. NYG looks iffy but if you consider they are living up to their schizo personality to perfection right now (winning @ Dal, losing vs Wa), one would have to consider the very real possibility they could win @ Jets. They did beat NE on the road so anyone not considering that they are a live dog @ Jets is ignoring how this team plays week to week.
BOL this week!
I also like your NYG and SD picks. Not so sure that the ML for Sea, NYG, SD is the best way to go...but ATS I definitely am interested in all 3 of those ideas. Getting approx a FG with each and all 3 of those teams in MUST WIN mode is good handicapping. Why risk a win vs a loss to take the ML when you can get a couple of all important points and salvage a winner if they lose a close one? Not convinced that trying to nail + 125, +125, + 130 is really worth not taking the points.
Anyway, SD on fire. Sea rolling lately. NYG looks iffy but if you consider they are living up to their schizo personality to perfection right now (winning @ Dal, losing vs Wa), one would have to consider the very real possibility they could win @ Jets. They did beat NE on the road so anyone not considering that they are a live dog @ Jets is ignoring how this team plays week to week.
BOL this week!
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by TomE:
PTB,
I also like your NYG and SD picks. Not so sure that the ML for Sea, NYG, SD is the best way to go...but ATS I definitely am interested in all 3 of those ideas. Getting approx a FG with each and all 3 of those teams in MUST WIN mode is good handicapping. Why risk a win vs a loss to take the ML when you can get a couple of all important points and salvage a winner if they lose a close one? Not convinced that trying to nail + 125, +125, + 130 is really worth not taking the points.
Anyway, SD on fire. Sea rolling lately. NYG looks iffy but if you consider they are living up to their schizo personality to perfection right now (winning @ Dal, losing vs Wa), one would have to consider the very real possibility they could win @ Jets. They did beat NE on the road so anyone not considering that they are a live dog @ Jets is ignoring how this team plays week to week.
BOL this week!
PTB,
I also like your NYG and SD picks. Not so sure that the ML for Sea, NYG, SD is the best way to go...but ATS I definitely am interested in all 3 of those ideas. Getting approx a FG with each and all 3 of those teams in MUST WIN mode is good handicapping. Why risk a win vs a loss to take the ML when you can get a couple of all important points and salvage a winner if they lose a close one? Not convinced that trying to nail + 125, +125, + 130 is really worth not taking the points.
Anyway, SD on fire. Sea rolling lately. NYG looks iffy but if you consider they are living up to their schizo personality to perfection right now (winning @ Dal, losing vs Wa), one would have to consider the very real possibility they could win @ Jets. They did beat NE on the road so anyone not considering that they are a live dog @ Jets is ignoring how this team plays week to week.
BOL this week!
Tom, the Giants, Chargers & Seattle are playing these games to win & the ML is the only way I see playing them..........Seattle will be bigger than the other 2 plays.............
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Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:
Prime, if this is your biggest wager, you need to sit back and take a breath.
There are many better games than this, I think the Saints win for sure, probably cover too.
Prime, if this is your biggest wager, you need to sit back and take a breath.
There are many better games than this, I think the Saints win for sure, probably cover too.
Tony, I just dont see the Saints blowing the Falcons out..........in fact, I see the Falcons winning SU & I know I will be one of the few that has the ML bet................
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Tony, I just dont see the Saints blowing the Falcons out..........in fact, I see the Falcons winning SU & I know I will be one of the few that has the ML bet................
Well I def wish you GL, I am not playing it big if I play it at all.
My $ is on Eagles and Jets.
Hope they both lose though, lol.
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
I liked the under Monday night but bet the damn Steelers for a lot more
should have stayed away knowing I wanted to bet this Monday night game coming up...........bankroll now stands at +$45,902............ with this 6 team 6.5 pt teaser pending 49ers +3.5, Falcons +13, $6,000 to win $5,000...............I will hit it...........
Yes I'm a Saints fan..If Atlanta is going to cover why did vegas put the line at Saints-7 instead of -3?IMO,Vegas is begging you to tke the points. I like my Saints in PrimetimeI liked the under Monday night but bet the damn Steelers for a lot more
should have stayed away knowing I wanted to bet this Monday night game coming up...........bankroll now stands at +$45,902............ with this 6 team 6.5 pt teaser pending 49ers +3.5, Falcons +13, $6,000 to win $5,000...............I will hit it...........
I have been waiting for this Monday night match-up since the Falcons blew out the Jags on Thursday night.........should have known you gotta be careful on capping weeks 15 thru 17 because of all the playoff implications...........
Saints vs Falcons..........the Saints are coasting winning & covering 6 straight games & are looking for the 1st round bye & #2 spot but to earn it, the 49ers need to lose a game which didnt happen on Monday night vs the Steelers so the Saints will be waiting to see how the 49ers do vs the hot Seattle team on Sunday...............
I have the 49ers losing to red hot Seattle & putting pressure on the Saints to win on Monday night & take control of the #2 spot but it wont happen, the Falcons will win SU.............
The Falcons got back on track having to play a soft Jags team in disarray.............with 10 days rest, the Falcons should go toe to toe with the Saints & actually beat them SU.............Saints are undefeated at home but that changes Monday night...............oh, lets not forget how the Falcons lost last season in week 16 at home on Monday night which allowed the Saints to get into the playoffs..............what goes around, comes around.................
I will wait for the Falcons ML & will be placing $5,000 on it............will also be placing $15,000 on the spread & I see it at +6.5 but will wait for +7...........I wont be buying back this bet so dont ask............
Take the Falcons big on the spread & ML......................
I will also be playing the Seahawks ML, Giants ML & Chargers ML..............
Tail or fade, its up to you, I did lose some big bets this past week...........
..But I'd watch an see what happens in the seahawks/49er game.I like the seahawks,..49er's coming off the dreaded MNF,with one less day to rest,
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Posted:
#61
I disagree with you on Atl... but it could happen. If you think the NFL might be "rigged", then I like the Jets over Giants and Eagles over Cowboys to set up a possiblility for the Eagles. Also then, SD beats Detriot and Buf beats Den to set up the possiblity of SD. It would make for an exciting week 17. It could happen
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by saints12:
Yes I'm a Saints fan..If Atlanta is going to cover why did vegas put the line at Saints-7 instead of -3?IMO,Vegas is begging you to tke the points. I like my Saints in Primetime..But I'd watch an see what happens in the seahawks/49er game.I like the seahawks,..49er's coming off the dreaded MNF,with one less day to rest,
Yes I'm a Saints fan..If Atlanta is going to cover why did vegas put the line at Saints-7 instead of -3?IMO,Vegas is begging you to tke the points. I like my Saints in Primetime
..But I'd watch an see what happens in the seahawks/49er game.I like the seahawks,..49er's coming off the dreaded MNF,with one less day to rest, How could they make the line -3 when the Saints just won & covered 6 straight? Also, they won back to back weeks on Sunday & Monday night on national tv beating their teams easily while Atlanta struggled & lost to Houston with a 3rd string qb & then had to come from behind to win against Carolina..............this line imo should be -5 but I will gladly take the extra 2 points if possible on game day or whenever it moves back up, hopefully..............
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Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
How could they make the line -3 when the Saints just won & covered 6 straight? Also, they won back to back weeks on Sunday & Monday night on national tv beating their teams easily while Atlanta struggled & lost to Houston with a 3rd string qb & then had to come from behind to win against Carolina..............this line imo should be -5 but I will gladly take the extra 2 points if possible on game day or whenever it moves back up, hopefully..............
I agree the line should be -5 ... But i think saints win by a td or more if they start out strong
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by SHAKEnBAKE209:
Not for this game. Square bet, but than again its sportsbetting. Can go either way. -1.5 is too fishy for me. BOL
Not for this game. Square bet, but than again its sportsbetting. Can go either way. -1.5 is too fishy for me. BOL
My book has it at sf -3.... I wish it was 1.5 for me... Seattle is playing for a long shot into the playoffs.... SF is playing for the first round but which they will get if they win their next two games against fairly easy opponents .... Sf wants this win more and are a better team so the easy call in my book is sf even at -3
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Posted:
#66
PTB-We have our eyes on the exact same 4 games!
I am up considerable from last week's SNF-MNF games nailing both sides BIG and hitting both parlays with the right totals. I loved SD as soon as I spotted it and have already laid the gauntlet on SD +3 and the moons align beautifully for SEATTLE ML as well this week.
Will be playing a few units on NYG ML and ATL ML/ATL spread also.
Through them all in a parlay with OAK and DEN, too.
Wish you a Bonanza Santa Claus week!
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects:
PTB-We have our eyes on the exact same 4 games!
I am up considerable from last week's SNF-MNF games nailing both sides BIG and hitting both parlays with the right totals. I loved SD as soon as I spotted it and have already laid the gauntlet on SD +3 and the moons align beautifully for SEATTLE ML as well this week.
Will be playing a few units on NYG ML and ATL ML/ATL spread also.
Through them all in a parlay with OAK and DEN, too.
Wish you a Bonanza Santa Claus week!
We are 2 of the few people that like those 4 teams................like Oaktown as well but dont like the Broncos, gl...................
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Posted:
#68
Saints are 4-18 ATS as a division home favorite
Saints are 2-14 ATS as a division home favorite of 7 points or more
Falcons are 17-3 ATS as road dogs w/revenge vs division opponent off a non-division game
Falcons are 9-1 ATS as dogs vs division opponent off non-division game & back to back SU wins
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by ncg33:
I disagree with you on Atl... but it could happen. If you think the NFL might be "rigged", then I like the Jets over Giants and Eagles over Cowboys to set up a possiblility for the Eagles. Also then, SD beats Detriot and Buf beats Den to set up the possiblity of SD. It would make for an exciting week 17. It could happen
Nothing to do with being rigged Eagles and Jets are playing better than their opponents and match up better.
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by ncg33:
I disagree with you on Atl... but it could happen. If you think the NFL might be "rigged", then I like the Jets over Giants and Eagles over Cowboys to set up a possiblility for the Eagles. Also then, SD beats Detriot and Buf beats Den to set up the possiblity of SD. It would make for an exciting week 17. It could happen
i think u might be on to something 
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