***BIGGEST WAGER SINCE LAST YEARS SUPER BOWL----SAINTS VS FALCONS***

Quote Originally Posted by wink165:

Real players NEVER tell their bets. Only units.

Quote Originally Posted by lakersfan20009:

What's the odds PTB ever comes back and responds to all this?

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

100%

with one of these saying how we crack him up and how much he is amused by everyone. He'll say how he always says he doesn't have good money management, but that he is still up on the season, so it was house money anyways. You know....typical PTB lies.

Quote Originally Posted by TomE:



This logic I believe is very faulty. It assumes that because Atl gained 500 yards of offense vs NO 363 but the Saints benefited because Alt scored FGs vs the Saints TDs that this will occur in the rematch. It further extrapolates that Atl with extra rest will score the TDs this time and come out on top because they also want revenge. Dangerous assumptions for one's bankroll.
The problem is that it fails to consider the extremely obvious but absolute truth that Atl was at HOME in that match up and the Saints were on the road. HF advantage is generally considered a 3 pt edge in the NFL. I believe these two dome teams' HFA is actually more. When these teams "bring it' at home, especially on Prime Time with their crowds giving the away team the handicap of running an offense when they can't hear shit resulting in False Start and such penalties, I believe the HFA can be considered a TD or more depending on the circumstances. That's not even really accounting for how the home team gets extra inspiration from the home crowd cheering for them. Also, the away team often gets very frustrated and this all too often results in really stupid penalties...15 yard Unsportsmanlike and Personal Foul penalties. That's why many of these games become blow outs.
Should Have, Could Have, and Would Have are poor handicapping tools. What did happen is a much better predictor.
The fact that Atl LOST by 3 AT HOME in spite of the advantage I just delineated should be telling you a boatload. They are not that good a team. They are a good team IMO, but not as good as NO. The fact that NO won having to overcome the handicap and burden of winning in Atl should be telling you that they are better than you give them credit for by looking at yardage stats. Assuming you are going to be seeing similar stats in the rematch is wrong thinking IMO. Also, I'm not going to discuss the "revenge" much, but I learned years ago "you don't get revenge on the road". Believe it or not, I did not come by this realization cheaply. You smack your head against a wall enough, you will eventually split your skill or realize not to do that any more!
This time, the game is in NO. I'm sorry to break it to you, but this game is more likely to be a blowout by NO than a close game and to cap that Atl wins straight up is sheer fantasy.
Here's the NO home Prime Time games this season:
SN vs Colts    62-7 , MN vs NYG  49-24, SN vs Det  31-17
Yeah, Ind is a bad team...but 62-7? That should be screaming out some reality to you. Beating NYG and Det convincingly is a clue that Atl is going so suffer a similar fate.
These stats are good indicators:
NO: (all ATS) as a fav 9-3, home 6-0, 3-0 prime time with the narrowest victory "only" 14 points. 5-1 when playing a team with a winning record.
Atl: 2-3 as a dog, 3-4 road, 1-3 vs team with a winning record.
Look at those trends carefully because if you consider them together, that's how I would mathematically estimate your chances of being right. Slim, Slimmer, and None and Slim already left town. LOL

I already explained in a previous post here that both teams have the same basic motivations and neither team has a MUST WIN game here and now.. To say that Atl's motivation of not giving up ground with their two game lead as a wild card team is more important that NO's motivation of wanting to win an all important #2 seed is not too bright or insightful IMO.
Neither team MUST WIN this game, both WANT TO win this game and there is a huge difference.
That being the case, I say to use the KISS (keep it simple stupid) method of handicapping and just realize and accept that the home field advantage in this match up is what is going to make the biggest difference. The place will be rockin', the crowd will be pumped, loud, and rowdy. One team will be fighting against the current, the other going with the flow. That is HUGE!!!!!!
That is not to say that any given Sunday, that anything can't happen doesn't have a measure of truth. I am saying that for me, I will go with the odds, and absolutely NOT pick Atl in this game. I love NO on a teaser, and even -7 I think is a reasonable play. I think Atl ML is just flushing money down the toilet. Atl +7 is playing with fire. Even Atl +13 IMO is not a sure thing. That's how I break down these 4 possible outcomes here and that's how my money will vote.
Anyway, we can debate all we want for what it matters. After SN, one of us will be right, and the other wrong.
No matter, I sincerely wish you the BOL which ever way you wager.

Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:

PrimetimeClown. I hit HUGE on a boxing play (https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=39&sub=101073868).

Unlike you my roll is real. I am going to put my money where my mouth is and put your entire bank roll (50k) on Saints -6.5. It takes a few days to organise a bet like this, because my money is not monolopy money but I am in the process of organising it now..I will put the bet slip as my avatar when the bet goes through. Will you do the same?

I am going to expose you for the joke that u are. I have no feeling for the Saints. The only feeling I have is that u are a joke and when u bet big I fade..

I thank you in advance..

Quote Originally Posted by astra:

All you clowns need to get out of this thread if you dont like him. 

He lost, so what?   I lost so what?  You won, that's great!  Move on kids.....     If you don't like PTB, then don't come in here.  If you have something productive to say about the game, then welcome.  That is what forum is suppose to be...   no bashing and acting like kids...   geeez....    I like this place but it's getting really old.....

I tend to only read the good cappers and their angles and pick my own games and follow if they see something I like....  

If you don't like it....  then get the fuk out!!!!!!!!

Quote Originally Posted by astra:

All you clowns need to get out of this thread if you dont like him. 

He lost, so what?   I lost so what?  You won, that's great!  Move on kids.....     If you don't like PTB, then don't come in here.  If you have something productive to say about the game, then welcome.  That is what forum is suppose to be...   no bashing and acting like kids...   geeez....    I like this place but it's getting really old.....

I tend to only read the good cappers and their angles and pick my own games and follow if they see something I like....  

If you don't like it....  then get the fuk out!!!!!!!!

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Adding:

Quote Originally Posted by AJCAcura:

 

I agree... I think it will be close...... well, either it will be very close, or a blowout.... it wont be an 7-9 pt game.... I think it will either be a 2-3 pt game or a 14+ pt game

Quote Originally Posted by Slovak:

Sammy11 was on the same play if it makes you feel any better.

https://www.youtube.com/user/sammy62471#p/a/u/0/Sse_htnKFes

Quote Originally Posted by chuckdaduck:

Quote Originally Posted by chuckdaduck:

i remember that time i really liked the cardinals to cover aganst the saints in the playoffs, saints had been playing terrible the past few weeks , i put 5k on arizona and the cards even got a 7-0 lead and after that  45-14 final saints, ever since then i NEVER EVER bet against DREW BREES