Posted:
#26
If you liked Cincinnati you probably LOVE Seattle. Lol. Some can't see the Forrest for the trees.
Betting the NFL is not about trends and stats....
Posted:
#29
I believe they call it..................Regression To The Mean.................And sunday nights game is such strong evidence that it's alive and well in the NFL.
Another way of saying this........................No team is as good as they look when they are winning and not as bad as they look when they're losing.................The Truth Lies Somewhere Inbetween.
excellent V2. As it is in college ball, the intensity, the passion and the drive when needed is a stat not tracked. CFB has much more of this (homecoming, bad beats, revenge, younger players not being paid, etc...) - but never discredit situational spots in any sport on any level.
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by IllTakeAll100:
VegasVanda THANKS FOR THE POST I took cinci and took them LARGE your post made me think i took a picture and will continuously refer back to it and possibly add to it over time. From that post it fits SEATTLE perfectly would you agree? I like Sea -4 1st half Sea -7 FG
VegasVanda THANKS FOR THE POST I took cinci and took them LARGE your post made me think i took a picture and will continuously refer back to it and possibly add to it over time. From that post it fits SEATTLE perfectly would you agree? I like Sea -4 1st half Sea -7 FG
What? Weren't the Bengals coming off a bye last night? Don't the Redskins (yes, I'm not PC) have the most to prove this evening coming off of two losses in a row and the last one being a blowout? Just asking....
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:
totally agree with you VV but can you elaborate a bit more on:
"an instinctual judgment of the right flex point of a game (this takes time and experience to really know)" thx
totally agree with you VV but can you elaborate a bit more on:
"an instinctual judgment of the right flex point of a game (this takes time and experience to really know)" thx
Hey buddy. Yea that part is the complex part. to me betting the right spread is about a "flex point". it works better in NFL but I have analyzed it for the game tomorrow in NCAA., For example the Stanford game tomorrow we have them coming in averaging only 25 ppg and yet the linesmakers made the spread -17. Washington state averages 38 ppg. So on the surface washington state is the EASY play. BUT....lets look at the texture of the game. washington state was in almost every game they played all year besides the nevada game and would have covered 17 points in any of those games. both of their last games they played were extremely tight so you would think they should definitely be in this game too. problem is stanford is coming off a tough road loss and is the best defense wazzuu will face all season. this is the right flex point for stanford to contain wazzu on defense and get their offensive potency going against one of the worst defense in the PAC12. you could say this is just avoiding sucker bets but I think of it a little different. because of this flex point there is a much better chance of this game ending 38-10 than their is of it ending 35-27. see wazzuu making lots of mistakes and stanford crushing. i know this may sound elementary but if you watch the games you can kinda see when you need to bet things the opposite direction of the how they have been going based on the overall texture.
hope this made sense
Best of Luck tonight buddy....
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:
It's about
the texture of the game
the situational spot of the game
an instinctual judgment of the right flex point of a game (this takes time and experience to really know)
these are the things that help me become successful in all sports but mostly NFL over any other
This doesn't work every time but tonight the Pats have all of these things going for them despite very stat edge in the world for the bengals
I cannot tell you how the Pats win or how they overcome every stat deficiency but this is the best spot you are going to get in the NFL right here.
GL tonight fellas
It's about
the texture of the game
the situational spot of the game
an instinctual judgment of the right flex point of a game (this takes time and experience to really know)
these are the things that help me become successful in all sports but mostly NFL over any other
This doesn't work every time but tonight the Pats have all of these things going for them despite very stat edge in the world for the bengals
I cannot tell you how the Pats win or how they overcome every stat deficiency but this is the best spot you are going to get in the NFL right here.
GL tonight fellas
Do you mean context?
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