Quote Originally Posted by shrewdie:
Why didn't u just have an eight team parlay ?
Yeah I agree...easy to say now of course, but any 10 team parlay that involves a pro bowl game, and the Superbowl conference winner when you don't even know who will be representing each conference seems ill-advised.
This has been pointed out numerous times on many threads, but you should never place a parlay with the INTENTION of hedging your last bet. You lose juice since you are essentially betting both sides of the last game/s in your parlay by hedging. I will assume the OP didn't intend to hedge this bet (just a 5 dollar fun bet right?), so in that case, I think hedging is appropriate to get some guaranteed money. Guaranteed money doesn't come free, so you will lose some potential money by hedging, so it won't be maximizing profit, but I think you are okay with that. Here's what I would do for a guaranteed ~720 dollars and no stress.
Bet 800 on team Rice +0.5 (if you lose your parlay you are still up 715 dollars). 720 winnings minus 5 dollar initial parlay bet
If team Irvin wins, you are now 'down' 800 but have a hedgeable last game. Since it would be worth 2400 (3200 payout minus the 800 you lost on the first hedge) you place a bet on AFC+2.5 for 1680. If your hedge wins (parlay loses), you win 1512 but have to account for initial hedge of 800 so your total profit is 707 (712 profit minus 5 dollar ticket). If your parlay wins, you have 'lost' both hedge bets totaling 2480 but win a 3200 payout for a 720 dollar profit.
In summary:
If your parlay loses in game 9, you are up 715
If your parlay loses in game 10, you are up 707 (712 winnings minus 5 dollar parlay ticket. I am including the lost initial hedge here)
If parlay wins, you lose two hedge bets totaling 2480 but win your 3200 parlay for a total of 720.
Just for sake of showing how including those last 2 games in the parlay hurt you...if you had just bet an 8 teamer, it would have been worth ~880, and by having to hedge twice to guarantee yourself the most possible money, it costs you 160 or almost 20%.
In deciding if you should hedge, ask yourself this: would I bet 720 dollars on a side in the pro bowl? Because that is essentially what you are doing. A parlay is just rolling bets over into the next selection. By picking a pro bowl side, you are essentially saying when you make the parlay that you are comfortable betting ~800 on that pick since in order for that game to matter you would have to win the first 8 bets.
Good luck with whatever you decide to do. I'd take the ~700 guaranteed if I were in your situation but that's just me.
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