Are the bookies "fucked" in the bills Chiefs line

Very few times I take a dive into what stands to have Vegas make the most $$$. But In the instance of the Bills Chiefs game, I think Vegas stands to lose what they gained on Titan and Packer bettors.

Thought process...

Bills Chiefs line screams the bills are the better team, but Vegas couldn't open the bills as a road favorite especially in KC. That would be just plain stupid. Are the bookies fucked just for having this game be played in KC?

I saw this like ten or so years ago when Cam Newton with Auburn was going to Alabama in his national title year. Everyone knew how good cam newton and Auburn was but the game was in Tuscaloosa. By no means could Auburn be a road favorite in Tuscaloosa. And what happened. Cam blew the doors off them I think in the second half if I remember. The game was close but everyone was on Auburn that game. And Vegas took a giant hit in that game.

Such a gross misunderstanding of how bookmakers work and how they manage risk.

KC I feel is going eek out a win.

@Jeremyhite870

 Could be I assure you Vegas will be fine regardless of this outcome 

I get that they have bajillions of dollars. I'm just talking about you think they lose more than win on this game?

How?

You are reading in to things that dont exist.  Tea leaves.

Books make a line that will get 50% of money on one side, and 50% on the other.  It is that simple.

There is a cottage industry set up for lazy sports bettors who think they can decrypt the line and its true meaning.  It is nothing but noise and nonsense.  False narratives and urban myths perpetuated by sports bettors looking for answers to things they dont understand.

In the Bills Chiefs game today, the line has been between -1 and -2.5 all week.  Lines move very easily between -2.5 and -2.5, and this hasnt really moved.

I think people are missing the point here. It doesn’t matter how much money vegas has, it doesn’t matter how “bookmakers work”.  I think Jeremy is spot on here and I’m a lifelong chiefs fan. I hate betting against my team but I’m in it to make money. It comes down to defense and the last 4 games for the chiefs have been awful. 

@Jeremyhite870

 great write up you have a fabulous grasp on bookies and how they manage money.  look forward to more of these takes on risk management  thanks 

Thats not what OP is saying.

You are giving real reasons you think the Bills will win.  He is saying it is "because of the line".

These type of statements always make me laugh because it's just so cute 

Bookies never fucked they layoff action as do all the offshore don't EVER worry about the books, EVER!!! Because bettors that WIN big GIVE it back! Australian Open has been a MONEY bank how many are people are hitting the +$230, +$350, +$390 "dogs" or parlay the +$125 heavy favorites together or just taking a much better younger player at even odds at max wagers instead of dumping huge amounts on both sides of coin flip games. Seriously,  soccer and tennis are so much easier to get value.  Especially,  when there is a timezone issue in The States. 

@vanzack

 Dude u crack me up

@Jeremyhite870

 I have to agree with van you have no idea how this works. Do you really think the books would ever be in a FUCKED POSITION.  NO NO NO NO AND A STU FEINER NOOOOOOOOOOOO

Stop thinking Vegas they are small time now, seriously they always have been small based on the "illegal betting" that has gone on unchecked and hand slapped sentencing until recently because states around the country are now competitive vs the bartender. Now they go after the "Mom and Pop" like they are scarface.  Corporate Fuckers and tax Fuckers want everything and lazy couch potatoes are thrilled with their fat asses and IPhones think they are "In the Game". Shit is sick to be honest. Lose pay me, win pay me. Left hand and right hand but same corporate master/government master. Wake the fuck up boys.

@vanzack

 Yup

I actually understand what the op is getting at, even though he didn't word it the best. And probably didn't have to say "is Vegas fucked?", cause no one ever has to say that.

My translation would be:

The books know that the Bills are the better team, but still have to make KC a slight favorite to keep the money split as even as possible. Perhaps the market over values HFA and this is the reason why KC is the fav? If Buffalo would of opened -2, the handle would be heavily on KC.

^that's what I think he's trying to say. 

@FRANKtheBANKss

 thanks FtB for your enlightening and insightful take on this subject.  even though I have been around for decades I never tire of the continuous learning opportunities that are presented to me. some, get too big for their own cargo shorts and because of that cappers like you are much needed as an oasis for the newbie folks looking for guidance amongst the egomaniacs ..  thanks FtB. 

@vanzack

 I think you misunderstood him.  He’s basically saying Buffalo is gonna win and the books can’t set the line for 50-50 action or for their advantage to not lose so much when Buffalo wins.  

@tjohnsont35

 Great observation tj thanks for clearing that up for some. its not always ez to read between the lines and there are those whose vision is clouded. wtg shake it

@tjohnsont35

 What happens when Buffalo doesn’t win and they couldn’t get 50/50 action on the game? Vegas wins and we are all fcked? 

@philschnaars

 Yes that is correct also.   OP is assuming mostly all the action is on Buffalo and they will win or cover.  

Next time you think Vegas is Fu***d, just walk into one of the many casinos or sports books in town.  Last time I checked, the toilets are spotless.  

The time it took me and post this, the slots made more money for the casino than the whole weekend of football, NCAA bball made the book.

Instead of looking at why the line is what it is, focus on what side you need be on to win the bet.  Control what you can control.  The line is the starting point, not the end point for how you cap.

Then I did misunderstand him.

So you are saying he likes Buffalo?  Isn't this reasoning the same as everyone elses....  The line that is out there is off in my opinion and I am going to bet the side I think has value?  

If most of the action is on buffalo....  Why not move the line to attract KC action?