Bookmakers don’t move lines to attract betters to the other side…
@vanzack
I think he’s right….why would they possibly try to get even money on both sides of a line and collect a vig from every bet? This makes no sense, they must move the line to tell us if the world is flat or round I guess, I will study this further and let you know what I come up with
@vanzack
I think he’s right….why would they possibly try to get even money on both sides of a line and collect a vig from every bet? This makes no sense, they must move the line to tell us if the world is flat or round I guess, I will study this further and let you know what I come up with
Oh my god, I've explained it so many times on this site. I just don't have the energy to do it anymore. We live in the age of information. Of the internet. He could figure this stuff out if he wanted. To hell with knowing how booking houses work. I tell people to at least start by googling what percentage of a "Vegas" casino's take comes from sports wagering.
I swear, if I have to hear (read) one more schmo talking about what "Vegas" wants like "Vegas" is some dude with slicked back hair sitting behind a desk pulling strings, my head will explode.
Oh my god, I've explained it so many times on this site. I just don't have the energy to do it anymore. We live in the age of information. Of the internet. He could figure this stuff out if he wanted. To hell with knowing how booking houses work. I tell people to at least start by googling what percentage of a "Vegas" casino's take comes from sports wagering.
I swear, if I have to hear (read) one more schmo talking about what "Vegas" wants like "Vegas" is some dude with slicked back hair sitting behind a desk pulling strings, my head will explode.
@StumpTownStu
So they don’t want 50% of the bets on each side and to collect their vig? Interesting
if you were given a chance to take Buffalo +2.5 at +110 AND Kansas City -2.5 at +110 you wouldn’t make this bet right?
@StumpTownStu
So they don’t want 50% of the bets on each side and to collect their vig? Interesting
if you were given a chance to take Buffalo +2.5 at +110 AND Kansas City -2.5 at +110 you wouldn’t make this bet right?
They move the line to trick ya. That's why Vegas always wins. The streets are paved with gold and it's all paid for with loss wagers on Abilene Christian and Tarleton State games.
They move the line to trick ya. That's why Vegas always wins. The streets are paved with gold and it's all paid for with loss wagers on Abilene Christian and Tarleton State games.
@stumptownstu
I am going to assume you are being sarcastic. And yes I agree - it is exhausting to explain this constantly that "vegas" is not some dude with a crystal ball..
@stumptownstu
I am going to assume you are being sarcastic. And yes I agree - it is exhausting to explain this constantly that "vegas" is not some dude with a crystal ball..
@FRANKtheBANKss
I want to read your post - but it is just a wall of text and it is very difficult to read.
Maybe experiment with some punctuation and paragraphs.
Just a suggestion.
@FRANKtheBANKss
I want to read your post - but it is just a wall of text and it is very difficult to read.
Maybe experiment with some punctuation and paragraphs.
Just a suggestion.
@philschnaars
I come from a long line of sporting folk. You're not in a position to test my gaming knowledge. Not in bookmaking. Not is horse racing. Not in baccarat. Not in fucking Pai Gow. I avoid "Vegas" so I'm sure there is some new table games out there I'm clueless about but there's not much else for me to learn about how bookies work, or the gaming industry et al.
@philschnaars
I come from a long line of sporting folk. You're not in a position to test my gaming knowledge. Not in bookmaking. Not is horse racing. Not in baccarat. Not in fucking Pai Gow. I avoid "Vegas" so I'm sure there is some new table games out there I'm clueless about but there's not much else for me to learn about how bookies work, or the gaming industry et al.
@StumpTownStu
So they don’t want even money on both sides of a line in the grand scheme of things? And what do you know of my family history?
@StumpTownStu
So they don’t want even money on both sides of a line in the grand scheme of things? And what do you know of my family history?
No sarcasm. Do you know how much Vegas won on Stetson winning outright at North Alabama? They were all over the Hatters from the beginning. That's why Vegas always wins. They know.
I mean, who needs slot machines and table games? Who needs convention centers and $50 drinks in clubs with $100 cover charges. Who needs resort fees. Manipulating lines on Dixie State games, manipulating sports bettors, that's why Vegas always wins.
No sarcasm. Do you know how much Vegas won on Stetson winning outright at North Alabama? They were all over the Hatters from the beginning. That's why Vegas always wins. They know.
I mean, who needs slot machines and table games? Who needs convention centers and $50 drinks in clubs with $100 cover charges. Who needs resort fees. Manipulating lines on Dixie State games, manipulating sports bettors, that's why Vegas always wins.
@vanzack
Sometimes in the middle of the season particularly, books end up with "liability" on certain games, right? Like, say, Detroit is at GB and almost all the action is one-sided, pros and Joes alike. And there are times when they can't really move the line enough for fear of getting middled or killed in the teaser windows.
I agree it doesn't apply to these games, where there's maximum interest and the lines are pretty tight. And they're more than happy to take the vig. But I'm curious about your opinion on this.
@vanzack
Sometimes in the middle of the season particularly, books end up with "liability" on certain games, right? Like, say, Detroit is at GB and almost all the action is one-sided, pros and Joes alike. And there are times when they can't really move the line enough for fear of getting middled or killed in the teaser windows.
I agree it doesn't apply to these games, where there's maximum interest and the lines are pretty tight. And they're more than happy to take the vig. But I'm curious about your opinion on this.
Absolutely!
100% spot on.
But the reasons for moving or not moving are always risk management, and also derivatives (teasers, props etc).
But the goal when they set a line, and in a perfect world for the life of that line - is to match action. Like anything in life it isnt always a linear line from opener to closer - and sometimes they get stuck. I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right. But to say "vegas" has a crystal ball - or ulterior motives - or you have some system that says -4 is better than -3.5 for some semi-superstitious reason - then I am off that train.
Imagine a business where you could make 10% risk free - just for taking money from one person and giving it to another. I doubt bookmakers even know anything about the teams or players in relation to predictive RESULTS. They care about predictive WAGERING. Wagering, not results, are what books care about.
Absolutely!
100% spot on.
But the reasons for moving or not moving are always risk management, and also derivatives (teasers, props etc).
But the goal when they set a line, and in a perfect world for the life of that line - is to match action. Like anything in life it isnt always a linear line from opener to closer - and sometimes they get stuck. I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right. But to say "vegas" has a crystal ball - or ulterior motives - or you have some system that says -4 is better than -3.5 for some semi-superstitious reason - then I am off that train.
Imagine a business where you could make 10% risk free - just for taking money from one person and giving it to another. I doubt bookmakers even know anything about the teams or players in relation to predictive RESULTS. They care about predictive WAGERING. Wagering, not results, are what books care about.
@vanzack
i think that's right. and of course, the risk gets spread out over the season and averaged out over many games. truthfully, though, there are times when betting college games (which I'm better at), and when the line slides in my direction late, I notice that I win those considerably more than 50% of the time. i rarely bet name brand schools, mainly just fade bad teams from lower conferences. it seems to take time for the power ratings to reflect just how bad some of these teams are, and it's profitable to hit them in the early to middle part of the season. And because there's not much action on these games, the lines are pretty elastic. A few thou can move a line by a lot.
@vanzack
i think that's right. and of course, the risk gets spread out over the season and averaged out over many games. truthfully, though, there are times when betting college games (which I'm better at), and when the line slides in my direction late, I notice that I win those considerably more than 50% of the time. i rarely bet name brand schools, mainly just fade bad teams from lower conferences. it seems to take time for the power ratings to reflect just how bad some of these teams are, and it's profitable to hit them in the early to middle part of the season. And because there's not much action on these games, the lines are pretty elastic. A few thou can move a line by a lot.
Definitely. The difference between what will move an NFL playoff game on Sunday vs a smaller NCAAF game on a Saturday is immense.
And your point about averaging over a season is well taken. For every game they lose X on, they have another that they gain X*2 on.
Definitely. The difference between what will move an NFL playoff game on Sunday vs a smaller NCAAF game on a Saturday is immense.
And your point about averaging over a season is well taken. For every game they lose X on, they have another that they gain X*2 on.
Do you really think the house cares if they lose money a game here and there??? DO YOU KNOW WHAT SLOTS BRING IN COMPARED TO SPORTSBOOKS ??
Nevada books are coming off consecutive months of all time record profits....
They know most degens will just lose it on their next wager or some wack table game ...
Do you really think the house cares if they lose money a game here and there??? DO YOU KNOW WHAT SLOTS BRING IN COMPARED TO SPORTSBOOKS ??
Nevada books are coming off consecutive months of all time record profits....
They know most degens will just lose it on their next wager or some wack table game ...
Vanzack quote:
"I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right."
Do you think Billy Walters is the exception....and has this higher understanding? I've only seen that 60 mins. piece on him, and he let very little, if
anything out of the bag. Obviously he has a grasp of a lot of things we can't or don't see.
Vanzack quote:
"I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right."
Do you think Billy Walters is the exception....and has this higher understanding? I've only seen that 60 mins. piece on him, and he let very little, if
anything out of the bag. Obviously he has a grasp of a lot of things we can't or don't see.
@Cooler999
If you do you homework on Billy Walters, he was truly an exceptional dude.
His bets alone would move lines, when they did move considerably he would hammer the other side. He was a master of the middle and picking lines that he could exploit. Mainly because the respect that the books had for him.
I don't think we ever see a single bettor like him again. He did it in a different era. Today there is $ coming in from all over the place and through multiple outlets.
@Cooler999
If you do you homework on Billy Walters, he was truly an exceptional dude.
His bets alone would move lines, when they did move considerably he would hammer the other side. He was a master of the middle and picking lines that he could exploit. Mainly because the respect that the books had for him.
I don't think we ever see a single bettor like him again. He did it in a different era. Today there is $ coming in from all over the place and through multiple outlets.
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