Quote Originally Posted by Skipster: @vanzack Sometimes in the middle of the season particularly, books end up with "liability" on certain games, right? Like, say, Detroit is at GB and almost all the action is one-sided, pros and Joes alike. And there are times when they can't really move the line enough for fear of getting middled or killed in the teaser windows. I agree it doesn't apply to these games, where there's maximum interest and the lines are pretty tight. And they're more than happy to take the vig. But I'm curious about your opinion on this. Absolutely! 100% spot on. But the reasons for moving or not moving are always risk management, and also derivatives (teasers, props etc). But the goal when they set a line, and in a perfect world for the life of that line - is to match action. Like anything in life it isnt always a linear line from opener to closer - and sometimes they get stuck. I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right. But to say "vegas" has a crystal ball - or ulterior motives - or you have some system that says -4 is better than -3.5 for some semi-superstitious reason - then I am off that train. Imagine a business where you could make 10% risk free - just for taking money from one person and giving it to another. I doubt bookmakers even know anything about the teams or players in relation to predictive RESULTS. They care about predictive WAGERING. Wagering, not results, are what books care about.
Exactly! Books care about volume. hats it. They want volume, volume, volume.
They set the line based on what will generate the most action.
No one knows the outcomes of the games when the lines are set.
Vegas has more super computers, more algos, and more customer data than you can imagine.
If they had set the line at Buffalo +5.5 last night, everyone would have jumped Buffalo, and they would still have been wrong....
Vegaas has lost a total o 3 months in the last 4 years on their sports books...,,,,id say they know what they are doing...or their customers dont know what their doing
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster: @vanzack Sometimes in the middle of the season particularly, books end up with "liability" on certain games, right? Like, say, Detroit is at GB and almost all the action is one-sided, pros and Joes alike. And there are times when they can't really move the line enough for fear of getting middled or killed in the teaser windows. I agree it doesn't apply to these games, where there's maximum interest and the lines are pretty tight. And they're more than happy to take the vig. But I'm curious about your opinion on this. Absolutely! 100% spot on. But the reasons for moving or not moving are always risk management, and also derivatives (teasers, props etc). But the goal when they set a line, and in a perfect world for the life of that line - is to match action. Like anything in life it isnt always a linear line from opener to closer - and sometimes they get stuck. I guess my point is that it takes a much higher skill level than anyone I have ever seen to make a correlation between line moves and result. Of course if you beat the closing line, that is a sure sign you are doing things right. But to say "vegas" has a crystal ball - or ulterior motives - or you have some system that says -4 is better than -3.5 for some semi-superstitious reason - then I am off that train. Imagine a business where you could make 10% risk free - just for taking money from one person and giving it to another. I doubt bookmakers even know anything about the teams or players in relation to predictive RESULTS. They care about predictive WAGERING. Wagering, not results, are what books care about.
Exactly! Books care about volume. hats it. They want volume, volume, volume.
They set the line based on what will generate the most action.
No one knows the outcomes of the games when the lines are set.
Vegas has more super computers, more algos, and more customer data than you can imagine.
If they had set the line at Buffalo +5.5 last night, everyone would have jumped Buffalo, and they would still have been wrong....
Vegaas has lost a total o 3 months in the last 4 years on their sports books...,,,,id say they know what they are doing...or their customers dont know what their doing
@TJZags598 Or both the customers and the books know what they are doing, but 10% vig is too hard to overcome. One of the reasons I preach methods to reduce juice. This is the way to win $ long term.
@TJZags598 Or both the customers and the books know what they are doing, but 10% vig is too hard to overcome. One of the reasons I preach methods to reduce juice. This is the way to win $ long term.
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