*** 4 Unit Play of the Week (3-0 +12 Units) Write Up and Rest of the Card***

Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:

Adding a play for Thursday.

 

Play:

 

Pittsburgh -10 (hook) over Cincy

(My hook rule on this number is non-negotiable for me)

 

Anybody that has read any of my write ups can tell that while I post a few stats they rarely are the complete basis of my play.

 

There is one stat here that is clearly against me, and that is the 1-15 ATS record of double digit chalks. .  I keep trying to buck this thinking it will break, and I'm going to try it again.

 

Statistical Reasons:  There are several stats here in Pitts favor, big time:  Pitt has won the last ten meetings by an average of 28-17, and that was with a good Cincy offense.  Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last ten meetings.  Cincy is getting beat by an average of 12 points per game on the road this year.  Pitt is statistically the best defense in the game while Cincy averages an amazingly bad 238 yards per game on the road.  I could go on and on for ages here but you get the point. 

 

The Real Reasons:

 

- Short, Sweet and Simple.  Cincy has absolutely zero chance of running the ball in this game, as they only average 83 yards a game on the ground while Pitt only gives up 68, which means the entire load is going to fall on Ryan Fitzpatrick against an elite secondary and blitz-kreig like pass rush.  Dick LaBeau vs Ryan Fitzpatrick?  MISMATCH. 

 

- On the other side, the Bengals run defense is a siev giving up almost 150 yards per game on the ground on the road, while Pitt averages almost 150 at home.  Pitts achilles heal this year has been their porous pass protection but Cincy has not exactly impressed with their pass rush.  Roethlisburger should have ample time to pick apart this defense, especially on play action deep balls since the Bengals cannot stop the run and will get easily sucked in.

 

- Night game in a hostile environment in a blood thirsty rivalry.  I think the Steelers are still reeling about Cincy bragging about beating them once two years ago.  Pittsburgh is by far the stronger, faster, more physical, well coached team.  I could go on for days at how this is an enormous mismatch.

 

Say it with me one more time: Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road staring into the teeth of Harrison, Foote, Hampton, Taylor, Polamolu, etc, etc, etc. 

 

That said, I am only going one unit in until this double digit ATS chalk trend breaks.

 

GL

 

 

Big Hans, I love reading your writeups. This is what this board should be about. Quality writeups to back your reason behind betting a team. Not this crap I see sometimes "Lock of the Centruy" and then I open the thread and someone just says their pick. I am with you on NE. I live in NE and I have been waiting for this payback game all year. The only game that looked better to bet on all year for me so far was NE- 3 at home to Buffalo without Whitner or Schobel. New England ended up winning 20-3 and easily covered. I have watched every Patriots game for the past 7 to 8 years and I feel like I am more familar with their personnel, play calling, and style then any team in the league. I love NE in this situation. I have watched Miami play the last 2 weeks and I can tell you this offense sucks. The Seymour-Warren-Wilfork DL should be able to handle Miami's improved OL very well and NE's linebackers are getting better every week. Jerod Mayo had 20 tackles last week and should NFL Rookie of the Year. Gary Guyton is also very solid and is great at defending backs like Williams and Brown in the flats. Pierre Woods is now playing for Adalius and he had 10 tackles and a sack last week and looked solid. He is a good player vs the run but he doesn't have that sideline to sideline speed or the pass rush ability of a Thomas. New England is going to make Pennington beat them and I simply don't see him being able too. The Dolphins love to dink and dunk but NE will be ready for it and they are excellent at tackling and wrapping up in space. Matt Cassel is getting better every week and I expect him to shred this overrated Dolphins secondary. The Pats OL is also jelling as a unit each and every game. The past 3 games have been great as Cassel has only been sacked once or twice despite the fact we played Indy, Buffalo, and NY. Matt Light really handled Freeney well vs Indy. Ne should be able to run the ball somewhat effectively as well with Sammy Morris back to compliment Green-Ellis and Faulk.This team simply doesn't have the athletes to cover Moss, Welker, or Gaffney. NE looks good here.

I like the Pitt writeup as well and I am with you there. Cinci does nothing well. They can't run or stop the run. They don't throw the ball well and they can't stop the pass because they have no pass rush. Pitt should win this one by 14 to 17 but weather could play a factor.