*** 4 Unit Play of the Week (3-0 +12 Units) Write Up and Rest of the Card***

Well week 11 is over.  I am thankful for being able to pull 4 units of profit out as it was a toughest card of the year so far.  I pretty much broke even with the majority of my plays and thankfully hit my big play on the Bucs for the third week in a row to avoid a losing week,

I like this one a little better, and as is usual one line jumped out at me almost immediately.  I don't expect any originality points on this one as a few others on this board are already on it, but this is a game that I and probably many others circled two months ago.  On September 21st, 2008 to be exact.

Play:

New England +2 Over Miami (4 Units)

Statistically both teams are eerily similar.  Both are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.  NE scores an average of 21.9 while Miami chalks 20.9, and both defenses allow 19.4 and 19.7 PPG respectively.  From a total yardage gained and allowed stanpoint both teams are only 7 yards off in either direction for each category.  NE defense has actually performed better on the road this year yardage and PPG wise (largely due to last week's game and what occured on September 21st.)

So, now that we have established that there is no real statistical edge in either direction, we can get to the numbers and situations that matter.

1. September 18th, 2008.  Miami Dolphins 38, NE Patriots 13.

2. And instead of explaining how Belichick does after a loss, here is a nice copy and paste job, with the caveat that OF COURSE Tom Brady was playing in most of these games:

·  Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

·  Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

·  Patriots are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

·  Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Relavent Points and Thoughts:

1. I am far from a Belichick fan.  I'm pretty much convinced the guy is dirty, and for everyone and their brother who isn't a Pats fan, quite frankly their dominance from 2007-08 with a couple of exceptions was getting pretty damn old.  If I wasn't playing this game I would root openly for Miami to essentially take a two game lead over NE in the East and put a serious hamper on NE's playoff hopes.  That said, I have always feared and respected Belichick, who regardless of whether he is a cheater or not is probably the smartest coach in the game, and this situation sets up perfectly for a big Patriots win if you account for every historical element of his tenure at New England.

2. Miami's 38-13 blowout win was one of the few times when a Belichick coached team got completly outcoached and out-schemed.  It was an absolute embarrassment for NE to get routed at home by what was at the time a gimmick formation that they never saw coming and had absolutely no answer for (The Wild Cat).  Never mind the fact that NE was a 13 point home chalk and was blown out of the building by a team that was 1-17 in their last 18 regular season games.  This was a major, major blow to the ego of a man whose id, ego, and superego could probably block out the sun and can surely be seen from space.

3. Anyone that doesn't believe that Belichick isn't a huge revenge guy can guess again.  This was on full display last year as they were openly running up scores on hapless opponents early in the year which I believe was a direct response and a f*ck you to the rest of the league for the Spy Gate scandal.  This may set up to be the biggest revenge game for Belichick in recent history, until of course, they play the Giants again with Brady at the helm.

4. Miami for their own right has been a pleasant surprise starting 6-4 and defying almost every expectation.  They have a tough minded coaching staff and front office and it is showing in their play, grinding out gritty, razor close games and not killing themselves with mistakes.  That said, they almost lost straight up to two terrible teams (Seattle and Oakland) at home while having  the major advantage of catching those teams in bad body clock situations.  You can maybe chalk the Oakland game up to a look ahead to New England but they have only defeated one team soundly all year, and we all know who that was.

Potential Moose Factors:

1. I realize that this screams square play as everyone and their brother will be loading up on NE when they see the Pats are actually catching points versus the Dolphins.  Most of the public probably hasn't even seen the line yet and it opened at +3 and quickly got pounded to +1-+2, depending on where you look.  I wouldn't be surprised to see NE favored by game time so it may be advantageous to bet this now.

2. Adaleus Thomas getting hurt is a big blow to NE's defense, and stopping the wild cat will be more difficult without him.

3. Cassel hasn't exactly played with sheer and unadulterated brilliance on the road, and the Pats are indeed starting an undrafted practice squad player named BenJarvis Greene Ellis at tailback (granted, he has impressed so far).

4. Miami has an elite corner in Will Allen who may be able to neutralize Moss.  Welker will have to have a big day, and somebody is going to have to account for Joey Porter, because the man is playing like a rabid demon and has been blowing people up lately.

Bottom Line:

- I believe that Belichick WILL have an answer for the wild cat, which will force Pennington to beat them, which if he does, I will tip my hat to him and take the loss like a man.  I don't see it happening as I believe the wildcat bruised Belichick's ego so much that he has been preparing for this game for the last two months.

- Cassel has been rounding into form and playing much better of late.  He has 7 more starts under his belt than the last time he played and is clearly playing with more confidence and gelling with the offense in a more cohesive manner.

- The Pats have an extra two days of rest and preperation for this game and I believe that combined with the revenge factor,  the fact that Belichick absolutely will not get out-schemed again, NE's history of coming off a loss, the importance of this game to NE's playoff hopes, and that the talent level on the Pats is still higher than Miami all of these factors combined will lead to a ten point victory for NE.

NE 24-14

Best of Luck.