🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Early lean to Falcons

Early lean to Titans as I think they have finally found their mojo

Currently leaning to the NINERS again but injury status needs to be sorted out.

After the big fat loss on my in-game prop 23 - 13 now

I think ultimately PACKERS could be a decent bet next MNF.  With Jones and Watson fully healed and Love with another game under his belt, I gotta think it only gets better from here despite losing their starting left tackle and an iffy secondary.  Raiders are underwhelming and possibly without Garoppolo again.  But we shall learn more as the week progresses.

Cards and Rams are two hungry dogs both AT HOME facing teams that are vulnerable for a letdown, and I have those matchups rated DEAD EVEN! 

Joshua Dobbs and his Cards are a bit under-rated, wouldn't you say, from the performance and stat lines??

Assuming my assessment is accurate (or even very close) conventional wisdom is to take the likely value on HOME DOGS everytime.   Of course, there is NO GUARANTEE and sht happens all the time. But personally, my capping suggests I have over 85% chance of covering ONE and about a 66% of covering both!

Could be wrong though .....but I put my money down (a substantive amount too!) as I feel confident I do no worse than break even.

  daaaaa Bears @WASHINGTON

The short & curlys....

How do you think the 0 - 4 BEARS feel right now?
On Sunday, they were AT HOME, playing the other WORST team in the NFL - the sad Broncos who just got taken to the wood shed in a 20 - 70 beatdown. This matchup perhaps appropriately dubbed the "TOILET Bowl" -- and the Bears LOST it!
They played well and EARNED a HUGE 21 point lead late in the 3rdQ and were headed for their first glorious win of the season!!!
And they somehow managed to phuck-it-all-up...

Seriously, there HAS TO BE all kinds of doubting going on over there. Maybe finger pointing too (behind the scenes that we don't know about) The BEARS dreadful -62 pt differential is second worst only to the hapless GIANTS (-76)

So now they take their awful -62 pt diff (performance) and hit the road to face WASHINGTON. The 2 -2 Commandos have a rookie QB in Sam Howell (N.Carolina). A very good rookie QB! Who is gaining valuable experience with every game! This past Sunday he had his team on the verge of upsetting Jalen Hurts & the vaunted EAGLES on their homefield. Game decided in O.T. That was a bounceback from being routed by the Bills.
And now they have a golden opportunity to bounceback again with another determined effort to succeed - but this time against a struggling, very low-rated BEARS gang that will be fortunate if they win 5 this year.

I think the reason for the slight drop in opening line is the status of WRs Dotson and Samuel. Some concern, sure, but I think they are fine with top WR McLaurin still doing his thing and QB Sam Howell's favorite target from North Carolina, Dyami Brown on the other side, as he has the highest yds avg among receivers. No significant dropoff, imo.
Already bet Commandos to win su, though not so sure about covering a TD....

Great thread Wayne 

Bengals @ARIZONA

They had high hopes for the mighty Bengals this year.
That's faded now.
But I think they will turn it around and seriously flirt with making the playoffs. I just don't know that it starts this weekend in the Desert.
Bengals hopes fell when they were routed in Clevland then narrowly lost to the Ravens.
But hope returned when they had another home game a narrowly edged past the RAMS by 3 pts.
They hoped that was the start of a big rebound....especially only having to play the sub-pat Titans next!
They got humiliated both on the stat sheets and on the scoreboard. The Bengals are now only 1 - 3 andtheir -45 pt differential is 4th WORST in the league!

Now they face the feisty Cardinals on the road. Bengals 2 previous road games were a 24 - 3 loss and a last week a 27 - 3 loss.

Meanwhile the low-rated but tough Cardinals have nothing to lose. They were never expected to be so good they would make a deep run in the playoffs like the Bengals.

They suffered a narrow loss in an evenly played game on the road @WASHINGTON.

Then that FLUKE game against the lowly GIANTS, when they were leading 28 - 7 late in the 3Q, only to lose. THAT really pissed them off! So the K'Boys roll into town....and the Cards outplay them and spanked them good with a 28 - 16 beatdown of a top rated team!
Then they hit the road against the best team in the NFL and lose a game where they hung in toe-to-toe for 3 Qs.
Now these feisty, under-rated Cardinals are back home facing a vulnerable opponent which sucks on the road.
Cardinals pt differential is -14 compared to -45 for Bengals, and the Cardinals have faced tougher opposition!

*Caveat: I never suggest or encourage anyone tail my bets...Proceed at your own risk!

Fubah's NFL Ratings going into Week 5:

Top tier: SF, Buff, Miami ............KC

     2nd tier: Phil, Cleve, Dal, Balt, Det, .........GB, LAR

Mediocre: Wash, NOR, Pitt, Atla, Sea, Indy, TB, NE, Lac, Ten, Jax

   4th tier: Min, AZ, LV, Car, Jets, Hou, Cinci

   YUCK!!: Denver, Chicago, NYG

@DogbiteWilliams

Thanks, I have that creepy feeling I might need it 

IF the game outcome is determined by strength/quality of teams then my homies win handily by 8 to 13 pts, I am confident of that.  BUT lucky breaks is another story ......frequently games are flipped that way!!  Some might say daaaaaa Bears could be due!  My analysis indicates the Bears need a net of 2 significant lucky breaks to win outright......or one colossal break, like a defensive TD when Washington is on the verge of scoring.... and those things can and do happen from time to time even in favor of weakass teams that are otherwise expected to lose on the road to a determined home team....

BoL with your bets this weekend, my friend!

I have nothing against the 4 - 0 EAGLES.
SB participant who really should have won last season but for great fortune going to the lucky CHIEFS. Philly has a good team! I have bet on them this year.

BUT.....upon further review, a few things:

1/  they were lucky as well to win that first game against the mediocre PATS
LUCKY EAGLES! ...not superior strength!

2/  then they were lucky as hell to win AT HOME vs the hapless Vikes - who played EVEN with the EAGLES but shockingly lost a net of 4 fumbles, including giving a cheapie to the Eagles at the 7, and then fumbling a sure TD pass in the endzone out of bounds for a touchback (unforced errors!) Eagles only won by 6...
LUCKY EAGLES! ...not superior strength!

3/ Eagles did have a VERY SOLID 25 - 11 win in Tampa, albeit vs a mediocre team

4/ EAGLES luckily escape with a 3 pt win in O.T. AT HOME against their 4th consecutive mediocre opp

Thus, EAGLES played 4 mediocre teams who are collectively 7 - 9, but at least 2 can be questioned as "fortunate" wins.

Now they hit the ROAD to face the very determined 2 - 2 RAMS - who played even with the best team in the league and only lost by one score and lost on the road by only 3 to the Bengals who were believed to be primed for a deep run in the playoffs.
Keep in mind RAMS get their star WR Kupp back finally and with top of the NFL receiver Nakua, will have TWO STAR wideouts to test the Eagles secondary! They achieved their 2 - 2 record despite 3 of those games being ROAD games (all without Kupp!), and while facing tougher opps collectively, who are 10- 6 on the season.

Yes, Matt Stafford got a hip bruise in the 3rdQ last game, but he played through it, and won it in OT. He'll still be a little sore, sure, but is good to go for Sunday.
So unless Stafford has a bad day, with multiple turnovers to the lucky EAGLES,
this is an even matchup at worst and more likely a slight edge to the hometeam.

Yet RAMS are inexplicably +4 pt underdogs to a team that has clearly been fortunate to date, including a game they could have just as easily LOST last Sunday AT HOME.

Mind you, ya never know....maybe they rebound with a terrific performance on the west coast, and the RAMS collapse. Step right up folks and place yer bets! LOL

In my experience over nearly 30 years doing this, when the QB for a *BAD* team has an exceptional game in a losing effort - FIELDS went 28/35 for a whopping 335 yds and 4 TDs AT HOME - that level performance, or anything even remotely close to it DOES NOT REPEAT in the next game regardless of venue....

daaaaa Bears start with the ball first....

Almost a circus catch by Mooney he was juggling that ball after they went big over the top

Dj Moore to the boom boom room !

3rd and 9 and RIVERA chooses NOT to put pressure on FIELDS......guess what happens....That gain is earned but fortunate for the Bears by the poor coaching decision

He must be wearing number 2 cuz “ he’s the SHIT ! “

Know what I’m sayin’ ?

Yeah I hear you they gotta pressure him

First sack of the night . Makin em sweat out there

Fields on Fire !

3rd and long from WASHY 20.....and once again RIVERA chooses NOT to send pressure (only rushes 4 AGAIN!) and FIELDS - with lots of time - tosses an opening TD........EARNED, yes, but fortunate *TWICE* that Rivera repeated the same stupid mistake on the same drive to give away 7 pts....

The young buck quarterback looks confident out there like a good looking guy at a bar with a fresh pack of rubbers in the glove box for later 

They didn’t give it away he EARNED it , like a guy with a job that doesn’t need any special assistance from the government because he’s a hard worker and not lazy

Ron Rivera is a real man don’t worry he’ll make some changes . Whether that’s to the game plan to stop Fields from passing so easy or to his shorts because of the brown spot remains to be seen