🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

Posted Wildcard bets: (buying pts)

W   NINERS -470                   *BEST BET
push Bills -3-600           push *BEST BET
W   Bengals -425                   *BEST BET
W   Bengals -1.5-400            *BEST BET
W   Niners -2.5-374              *BEST BET
W   NINERS -438                  *BEST BET
W   NINERS -1.5 -363           *BEST BET
W   BILLS -819                        *BEST BET
W   NYG +3.5-137
W   BUFFALO -1.5-885          *BEST BET
W   Ravens +8.5     Lucky to get my middle!

10 - 0 - 1     (8 - 0 *Best Bets!)

UPDATED after Sunday:

I am 48 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! 

While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are always a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)

Meanwhile, for my bets where my chalk is -270 and higher (ML and/or Alt lines)

             ... my results so far are  37 - 3  

      Of those, a nice 29 - 3  on  designated  *BestBets 

Maybe these stats can be of some use to some cappers.

Regardless, I wish you BoL with your bets, fellas!

Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . .

 
I am 37 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher.

But specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I am 17 - 1

In a related matter,

I was looking at the *HOME* FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number:

bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)
bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 - 1
bought pts down to -2.5 .... 9 - 0        (mean avg stake is -315)
bought pts down to -1.5 .... 3 - 0

= 16 - 1 when buy pts,  despite heavy chalk!

*See notes in above posts

YTD   94 - 38        after Wildcard round <---

 70 - 28 FAVS overall
            64 - 26 on Home Favs
              6 - 2 on Away Favs
 

24 - 10 DOGS overall
             18 - 7 on Home Dogs
               6 - 3 on Away Dogs
----------

12 - 5    National Spotlight evening games on Sat, Sun, Mon

*See notes in above posts

@fubah2

Nice!

My NFL season, began Oct. 10:

Week 05:    1 - 1            (1 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 06:    1 - 1            (1 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 07:    4 - 3            (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 08:    7 - 2            (4 - 2 *Best Bets)
Week 09:    9 - 1            (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 10:    6 - 5*          (6 - 4 *Best Bets)
Week 11:    7 - 3~          (5 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 12:    9 - 1            (3 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 13:    9 - 1*          (5 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 14:    3 - 1**        (2 - 0 *Best Bets)
Week 15:    3 - 3**        (2 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 16:  11 - 5~         (4 - 3 *Best Bets)
Week 17:    3 - 4            (2 - 1 *Best Bets)
Week 18:  11 - 7            (7 - 4 *Best Bets)

Wildcard: 10 - 0          (8 - 0 *Best Bets)   so far

YTD:  94 - 38       (58 - 23 *Best Bets)

*See info posted above

*Reduced my bet sizes to 75% anticipating correction to HOT Streak **Reducing my bet sizes again, now to 66% usual size. ~ resumed normal bet sizes

Expecting I should have a *BEST BET to post here shortly!

Just going over last minute injury/walking-wounded  status...

My *Best Bets are currently 50 - 23 on the season, if that helps in any way.

Thanks, Europa!

BoL with your BUCS +3 cover tonight!

I'm still reviewing some last minute info on the game before I post my *BEST BET...

Never let my plays stand on your way, Fubah2. Good luck to you whatever you play, just win baby!  

We both realize though that this could mark the end of an era if Brady losses tonight.  Kinda sad though.

Agree, or he is off to the Bay Area for next weekend where he grew up and as a Niners fan in his childhood.  

YTD:  94 - 38       (58 - 23 *Best Bets)

 *See info posted above

   Wildcard MNF: Cowboys -137  *Best Bet

WOW.   Only 5 minutes into the game and both teams have already completed 2 possessions each

Brady:   First INT in RZ since 2019

Who the hell misses 2 consecutive points after???

Who the hell misses 3 consecutive points after???

Dallas @SanFran next Sunday will be a heck of a brawl!

Thanks Kel.

If Maher finally kicks one through the roar of cheers back in Dallas pubs will be absolutely DEAFENING!

Weir, very weir game, kicker missed 4 EPA, Brady played like he is lost somewhere in the jungle. 

Just weird the game has been going, Brady seems not care about it and Mahr missed those 4 kicks, weird for me. 

Beside that TB +3 play, I also have Dallas +7.5 and under 55.5 teaser.  

sad end to a fine career

Drive it downfield then FAILURE!