10/18

@Raiders22

 Well first of all I’m ice cold this week so not only am I not playing the game tonight but I would fade my opinion anyways.

The question for me is whether or not Washington can keep up scoring with SF. Whether WAS can put TDs on the board like you mentioned. And if they have enough defense to hold SF to a FG here and there instead of TD after TD. 

WAS likes to send the blitz at a pretty high rate this year. If it doesn’t get home they risk being beaten repeatedly by the SF passing attack. Mike Evans is active and Kittle should be a major issue for WAS. I’m not sure they need much more than that to hang a pretty big number on this defense. 

WAS will need to have some sort of success running the ball with what they have. They’ll need to try and shorten the game rather than get in a shootout. Daniels running ability is the wildcard here and it will need to be on full display imo. 

The two models I have been generating my plays from this year are conflicting. One makes the line SF -6.46 and the other SF -8.66. Almost perfectly centered on 7.5. My plays are generally made where the two models are in agreement. I think 7.5 is the perfect number for the game and the hook would be my only reason to back WAS. At 7 I think I’d take a shot on SF. I’m seeing 7’s now, but I’m still not confident enough to fire. 30-23 final??

GL tn I’ll be rooting for the dog to cover. 

I know we both got burned on ATL yesterday. Did it feel like as the week went on ATL was a super public play? It did to me. And by game time I basically hated the play but thought I still had a shot with a good number. 

@Raiders22

 I’m also not buying into this “primetime dogs” business. IMO the wrong team was favored in a handful of those games and some of the other ones were very fortunate for the dog to win outright. I think we start seeing the favorites make a strong comeback in general in the weeks ahead.

@Way2Good

Evans is active and playing. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Very good points.  The one model had it at 6.74 for me.  The other was heavy on SF.  So, with me, it is not a model play as much as a situational play.

I agree with the number.

If SF gets out to a 17-0 or 21-0 lead, I am not sure WAS can get a backdoor cover.

If they can grab a lead or keep it close by finding a plan that works to do that by running the ball and clock to set up decent passes (like I think their plan should be) I think it is a good spot for them.  

If they let it get out of hand by not having a plan to slow SF down it could get ugly.  But with the DC being a Flores-disciple I think the blitz/pressure package may work considering SF injury situation and WAS getting back key help.

ATL is concerning to me.  Maybe their defense is not as good as I figured and they do not have the offense to keep trying to have a shootout or coming form behind.

Yes, trends are not my main thing.  I just think sometimes it has to be considered because maybe it has a psychology to it at times during the season more than others.

Yes.  So, I am hoping with WAS getting guys back and maybe Evans is not 'fully healthy' it may not matter as much.

unfortunately as long as Evans has two hands and two legs, he’ll be just fine 

@Raiders22

 Washington apparently has no interest in running the ball and is fully committed to getting into a shootout with the hottest offense in the league. SMH

@Raiders22

 I wouldn't be so worried about Atlanta's defense. They just happened to be in front of a runaway freight train of a Bears offense on Sunday. 

They came out with their hair on fire. Ben Johnson was clearly embarrassed the last game vs the Packers, and the Falcons were unfortunately the next opponent. 

Caleb Williams was phenomenal. Ozzy Trapilo was back at LT(not a full work load) as well. Not one receiver dropped a pass. BJ called a hook n ladder on a 3rd n 12 to convert. The Bears overcame 12 penalties on top of it. 

It was one of those spots.

Also, in Penix defense, he saw a blitz package from Dennis Allen that he couldn't deploy all year. I've mentioned NB Kyler Gordon on the forum before, and can't emphasize more on how good this dude is. He just hasn't been on the field in ages. He blitzed 4 times, and got home 3 times, and added 2 qb hits.

2 legit concerns for the Falcons are the 2 starting LB's they lost to injury in this game.

But now it's their turn to bounce back next week. They haven't won at home yet this year.

70.3% from shotgun. And Terry Mclaurin went out. Gonna be tough.

But it's still early, the Commanders will fight all game.

@brn2loslive2win

 Yep. Gotta take advantage of any scoring chances. Should’ve kicked the FG.  
Then needed a good drive after the fumble. Not a penalty and sack. 

@undermysac

 Yes. I think ATL every other week might be the way to go 

@Raiders22

 What we’re watching here is an elite head coach vs one who’s probably going to be looking for a job next spring. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes.  But also watching horrible defense that keeps letting Purdy make crucial throws and runs.  
Washington has to take advantage of every opportunity like that holding call.  Can’t let them come right back and get the 1st down.  
Always the issue backing a bad team — they cannot let opportunities get away. 
Did not kick the FG instead of going for it on 4th.  Did not take advantage of fumble.  Did not take advantage of great punt inside the five.  Did not take advantage of a crucial hold on SF

A good team can overcome those mistakes; a bad team cannot. 

Atlanta's consistency rating #29.

The Bears #32.

You never know what you're getting from these 2 teams, great for the zig zag though. 

@Raiders22

 Agreed. But Washington’s path to success would have been something like what Arizona did yesterday. Turn the game into a slog and somehow just hold the ball for as long as possible and hope you’re in the game in the 4th quarter. Instead they’re letting Jayden Daniels lose the game for them.

  That’s true!  I know because Chicago was the only game I lost last week. 

@brn2loslive2win

 Dan Quinn is supposed to be a "defensive" coach...

I THOUGHT that is what they would do.  
But the way they played this half it could easily have been 28-3 or 31-3.  
So, if they tighten up and SF tries to take the air out of the ball 2H — maaayyyybe a back door cover can happen. 

Maybe even the OVER is not done.  

@undermysac

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes, oddly Purdy is making clutch runs and Daniels is not because SF is containing him well.  

@Raiders22

 The way the nfl is these days you’re probably in the best position you could be in with Washington LOL

The two games I hit yesterday were both fourth quarter comebacks by a team getting their ass kicked and ATL even had a shot. Tampa is the opposite example.

@Raiders22

 They've been relatively healthy this year, compared to the last 2 years.

Yes, so many NFL come down to last possession -- which is what they want.