The Wounded Bear Nuggets were a dud, the unpopular home dog Blazers were a stud.
A quick look at the three games on tap for tonight:
Wizards +6.5 at Nets. That seems like a lot of points in a game featuring two inconsistent teams. Of course, the Wizards really struggle on the road but maybe this is the game where they finally put a complete package together and quietly surprise the Nets while everyone is watching TNT.
Detroit -1.5 at Chicago. This opened as a pick 'em in a lot of places and the line is moving fast, with good reason. The Bulls are terrible right now. Chicago is the unpopular home dog but there's no way I back the Bulls right now. I may consider taking another stab at totals here though and trying the Under.
Dallas (no line) at Golden State. The Warriors will be another unpopular home dog no matter where this line opens. I'm going to guess the Mavs are laying somewhere between 6 and 8 points. I never recommend laying that many points on the road, but I can't see why you'd back this terrible Warriors team here either. Maybe a home game against Dallas will help them recapture last year's playoff magic? Maybe, but I doubt it.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 6-4 Last Night: 1-1
The Wounded Bear Nuggets were a dud, the unpopular home dog Blazers were a stud.
A quick look at the three games on tap for tonight:
Wizards +6.5 at Nets. That seems like a lot of points in a game featuring two inconsistent teams. Of course, the Wizards really struggle on the road but maybe this is the game where they finally put a complete package together and quietly surprise the Nets while everyone is watching TNT.
Detroit -1.5 at Chicago. This opened as a pick 'em in a lot of places and the line is moving fast, with good reason. The Bulls are terrible right now. Chicago is the unpopular home dog but there's no way I back the Bulls right now. I may consider taking another stab at totals here though and trying the Under.
Dallas (no line) at Golden State. The Warriors will be another unpopular home dog no matter where this line opens. I'm going to guess the Mavs are laying somewhere between 6 and 8 points. I never recommend laying that many points on the road, but I can't see why you'd back this terrible Warriors team here either. Maybe a home game against Dallas will help them recapture last year's playoff magic? Maybe, but I doubt it.
nuggets was a tough lost as they were not in it, great hit with portland
3 wounded bears later: wizards, bulls and warriors
don't know which are value plays... gl with whatever you choose.... looking forward to your picks
gl
Bulls are technically another wounded bear, they've lost two straight as favorites and are now dogged, even though they didn't technically open as a dog. Warriors and Wizards are not WB's.
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Quote Originally Posted by strong ice:
nuggets was a tough lost as they were not in it, great hit with portland
3 wounded bears later: wizards, bulls and warriors
don't know which are value plays... gl with whatever you choose.... looking forward to your picks
gl
Bulls are technically another wounded bear, they've lost two straight as favorites and are now dogged, even though they didn't technically open as a dog. Warriors and Wizards are not WB's.
Trend #1:take the lowest Under and the highest Over YTD: 11-5 (7-1 on Unders, 4-4 on Overs) Tonight: Pistons/Bulls Under; Dallas/Golden State Over (TBD)
Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com) YTD: 12-4 Tonight: TBD (Chicago; Detroit/Chicago Under)
Trend #3:follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above YTD: 8-4 Tonight: TBD
Trend #4:fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games YTD: 0-1 Tonight: N/A
Trend #5:take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent YTD: 3-1 Tonight: N/A
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Trend tracking
Trend #1:take the lowest Under and the highest Over YTD: 11-5 (7-1 on Unders, 4-4 on Overs) Tonight: Pistons/Bulls Under; Dallas/Golden State Over (TBD)
Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com) YTD: 12-4 Tonight: TBD (Chicago; Detroit/Chicago Under)
Trend #3:follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above YTD: 8-4 Tonight: TBD
Trend #4:fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games YTD: 0-1 Tonight: N/A
Trend #5:take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent YTD: 3-1 Tonight: N/A
I've played every trend #1 and trend #2 game this season with the exception of Halloween night (too busy with kids and relatives and crap). I've made some nice and i'll keep riding it.
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I've played every trend #1 and trend #2 game this season with the exception of Halloween night (too busy with kids and relatives and crap). I've made some nice and i'll keep riding it.
"Not sure why anyone would play the Wizards tonight, or any time they're on the road for that matter.
The Det/Chi line screams trap if you ask me, similar to NO/Portland last night with an undefeated team only laying a small amount to a winless one...
Golden St owned Dallas last year, but they were a better team last year. However, didn't they own them 2 seasons ago as well? And the Warriors were not a good team then. I'm not sure why everyone is so quick to lay 7.5 points on the road. Guess it could be a blowout, but I want no part of it."
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Nuggets Blazers
Cut from my response in MaleEscort's thread:
"Not sure why anyone would play the Wizards tonight, or any time they're on the road for that matter.
The Det/Chi line screams trap if you ask me, similar to NO/Portland last night with an undefeated team only laying a small amount to a winless one...
Golden St owned Dallas last year, but they were a better team last year. However, didn't they own them 2 seasons ago as well? And the Warriors were not a good team then. I'm not sure why everyone is so quick to lay 7.5 points on the road. Guess it could be a blowout, but I want no part of it."
Did Seattle fit your trend as reverse line movement yesterday? I had Memphis -2.5 move to Memphis -1 with 60+% on Memphis.... Just curious to see if our numbers were alike....
Is there line value with Chicago, given there bad start?
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WCM,
Did Seattle fit your trend as reverse line movement yesterday? I had Memphis -2.5 move to Memphis -1 with 60+% on Memphis.... Just curious to see if our numbers were alike....
Is there line value with Chicago, given there bad start?
right now at sportsbook.com, over 80% are on the pistons and mavs. under trend #2, the plays would be the bulls and warriors. this could change as the day goes on, will check again thirty minutes to an hour before tipoff.
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right now at sportsbook.com, over 80% are on the pistons and mavs. under trend #2, the plays would be the bulls and warriors. this could change as the day goes on, will check again thirty minutes to an hour before tipoff.
I've played every trend #1 and trend #2 game this season with the exception of Halloween night (too busy with kids and relatives and crap). I've made some nice and i'll keep riding it.
You're a smart man. Definitely keep riding it, they'll hit some rough patches, but I have a feeling both come up plus money in the end. Especially that lowest Under. That is just hitting like nothing else this season. I love Unders early in the season, made a few bucks on them last year. For some reason this year, I'm starting 0-2 on totals and it's making me a little gun shy.
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Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:
I've played every trend #1 and trend #2 game this season with the exception of Halloween night (too busy with kids and relatives and crap). I've made some nice and i'll keep riding it.
You're a smart man. Definitely keep riding it, they'll hit some rough patches, but I have a feeling both come up plus money in the end. Especially that lowest Under. That is just hitting like nothing else this season. I love Unders early in the season, made a few bucks on them last year. For some reason this year, I'm starting 0-2 on totals and it's making me a little gun shy.
Did Seattle fit your trend as reverse line movement yesterday? I had Memphis -2.5 move to Memphis -1 with 60+% on Memphis.... Just curious to see if our numbers were alike....
Is there line value with Chicago, given there bad start?
I'm only keeping track so far at 70% or above.
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Quote Originally Posted by male escort:
WCM,
Did Seattle fit your trend as reverse line movement yesterday? I had Memphis -2.5 move to Memphis -1 with 60+% on Memphis.... Just curious to see if our numbers were alike....
Is there line value with Chicago, given there bad start?
The Bulls do look solid tonight. That short line on Detroit screams "trap" and the Bulls are the Wounded Bear. The Bulls have looked terrible so far this season, but that's a talented, well-coached team. I don't consider them title contenders, but I definitely consider them a playoffs team.
I'll recommend fading the Bulls for much of the season, but this is one spot I think they're a good value and I'm considering a play on them.
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The Bulls do look solid tonight. That short line on Detroit screams "trap" and the Bulls are the Wounded Bear. The Bulls have looked terrible so far this season, but that's a talented, well-coached team. I don't consider them title contenders, but I definitely consider them a playoffs team.
I'll recommend fading the Bulls for much of the season, but this is one spot I think they're a good value and I'm considering a play on them.
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