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TNT Thursday with Wildcatmatt

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by wildcatmatt:



Public service announcement...

When I list my breakdowns of each game, I'm not saying who I'm going to take.  For instance, if I write:

Chicago +8 at Phoenix

And then continue on with my opinion on the game, that just means that's how I chose to write it.  I like writing the road team, then the line, then the home team.  Personal preference in terms of aesthetics.

My actual plays that I've actually made will always be in bold.

Thank you.  Further bulletins as events warrant.

Sir, the favorite always gets posted first much like reading a final score. The winning team and score go first.

As I await the further bulletins I will chime in with that over in the Phoenix game looks good GL & PO

 
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Posted: #27
WCM,
 
should have played GS last night, even though they lost.... I should catch a lot of heat for posting a statement like this... However, it is a long term profitable situational spot to take GS given the circumstances...
 
Have to give you credit regarding Washington, they won on the glass... I was shocked at what I was watching... I didn't know B.Haywood turned into a young S. O'neal....
 
Did you get in on the Lakers last night?
 
good luck tonight, these games do not present any value in my eyes...
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

Sir, the favorite always gets posted first much like reading a final score. The winning team and score go first.

As I await the further bulletins I will chime in with that over in the Phoenix game looks good GL & PO



Who are you, the syntax police?

I'm terrible at totals, but I know I could never bet the Under in a Suns game and live with myself.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by male escort:

WCM,
 
should have played GS last night, even though they lost.... I should catch a lot of heat for posting a statement like this... However, it is a long term profitable situational spot to take GS given the circumstances...
 
Have to give you credit regarding Washington, they won on the glass... I was shocked at what I was watching... I didn't know B.Haywood turned into a young S. O'neal....
 
Did you get in on the Lakers last night?
 
good luck tonight, these games do not present any value in my eyes...


I laid off the Lakers last night.  Still trying to get a good read on them with Odom back.  I should've followed that same advice in my head with the Heat and Wade.

Haywood has been the one bright spot in the Wizards season so far.  But it's really the Pacers being poor rebounders more than the Wizards being good rebounders.  Pacers are not a good rebounding team, especially not under Jim O'Brien.

Next the Wizards travel to Minneapolis, a team which everyone assumes can't rebound, but they can... the young guys Al Jefferson and Craig Smith will crash the boards and the T-Wolves will be a live home dog (I'm assuming they're a dog, either way I know the line will be short).
 
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Posted: #30
One more thing, I admire you standing by your Golden State pick.  I don't think it was a dud and if I had to make a pick in that game, I would've gone with the Warriors as well.

However, I don't understand why people are still so obsessed with situational-ness (I just made up a word) of that game.  Yes, the Pistons are an older, veteran team.  But look at their track record the last couple years, playing in the 3-in-4 nights, back-to-back situation they were facing in Oakland last night.  The numbers are actually pretty solid, they've covered more often than they've failed to cover.  It only took me five minutes of research to figure out the "old and busted" Pistons angle might not hold up.
 
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Posted: #31
WCM,
 
I am thinking about a long term winning strategy... Fadeing a team playing back to back road games and 3 games in 4 nights should be profitable... Not to mention I was getting back +130... If I win at a 44% clip I am makeing money... Just the way I think...
 
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Posted: #32
Minesota is deffinately on my radar for tommorrow...
 
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Posted: #33
Fair enough, my friend, you definitely know how those percentages work out better than I do.
 
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Posted: #34
Trend tracking

Trend #1: take the lowest Under and the highest Over
YTD: 18-12 (11-4 on Unders, 7-8 on Overs)
Tonight: N/A

Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com)
YTD: 21-8
Tonight: TBD

Trend #3: follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above
YTD: 13-4
Tonight: TBD

Trend #4: fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games
YTD: 4-3
Tonight: N/A

Trend #5: take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent
YTD: 8-3
Tonight: N/A
 
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Posted: #35
Golden State -

First of all, their defense is SO bad, the only way I see them winning right now is by outscoring their opponent.  (I know thats the main objective of the game) What I mean by this is that they will literally have to set a goal of 30 points a quarter and do whatever to reach it.  If they can't hit 120 a game, you might as well stick a fork in them.

2nd of all.  Any team with a euro bum (in this case Beidrins) trying to anchor the D will never work in the NBA.

3rd - Nelson doesnt have the personnel to play the fast paced style with success right now.  He's only going 6 deep (like Phoenix used to) but Phoenix had twice as much talent.

4th - The loss of Jason Richardson is more costly than they thought.  Which was stupid because Wright wont be ready to play for atleast 2 years and Nelson wont be around that long. 

And I see the trend of Golden State tanking in the 2nd half continues to hold true.  You might want to start looking at taking their 2nd half team total unders.
 
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Posted: #36
GL...
 
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Posted: #37
About the Fakers -

I did not see the game so I dont know how the 2nd half went but it's not a surprise it happened like that.

Houston still is a good defensive team and the Lakers' offense is fair weather.

I can say that the season is exciting so far.

If Boston is laying anything less than 10, it's a trap, IMO.   Miami was that personnel that can beat them, it's just a matter if they can show up.

The trade for Ricky Davis was stupid because, like Marbury, although he's talented, he's a headcase.  The NBA is more of a thinking man's game and that's why you see a lot of old veterans still sticking around.

Looking forward to seeing the Bulls and Suns tonight.  Don't you think that total is a little low?  All I know is that you definitely wont see any records for "points in the paint" being broken in that game.
 
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Posted: #38
Hustle,

I agree with you on the Warriors and the Celtics trap. 

I think the Ricky Davis trade made some sense... I mean, with Shaq, Wade and Riley in the locker room you'd think he could keep his crap in line.  They had to dump Antoine somehow.

I think the Suns/Bulls total is staying down thanks to public perception that the Bulls are still a hard-nosed defensive team.  They're not, at least not so far this year.
 
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Posted: #39
Oh yeah... And the Pistons game last night just goes to show what I been saying since I've been on this site. Back 2 back games in the NBA are not hurting the team that just played the night before.  Especially if you're playing a team that only runs up and down the court like Golden State.


 
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Posted: #40
I'm about to get out of here and I won't be around tonight to watch the games, so good luck to everyone tonight and I'll be back in the morning to talk shop.
 
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Posted: #41
  Congratulations to all the over people.
 
                                     GL  The Syntax Police
 
 
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Posted: #42
nocioni shoulda hit that garbage three at the end for u
 
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