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The -3/-3.5 Trend. Something to keep an eye on?

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Posted: #76
Celtics open -3.5 now -4 and -4.5 at some books
 
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Posted: #77

Quote Originally Posted by lakers34kb:

Celtics open -3.5 now -4 and -4.5 at some books

im 3-0 here since chris pointed it out, but im no playing this game. Okc will either win or get walloped, but ml not worth playing it that way.

 
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by lakers34kb:

Celtics open -3.5 now -4 and -4.5 at some books

Was that -3.5  the open at Pinnacle ??

 
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Posted: #79
detroit drop from -3 to -2.5.... is that a play on milwaukee?
 
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Posted: #80

So.  Bucks now the play? Chris with a call?

 
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Posted: #81

Looks like we have two plays tonight guys.  Milwaukee +2.5 and the Celtics.  Detroit opened at -3 and the line is now at -2.5 and the Celtics opened at -3.5 and the line is now -4.  Also note that most team that cover as a dog also win the game... I'm not saying that will happen, i'm just saying.

And one final thing I must stress.  Trends always even out over time.  Don't pin your hopes on this thing.  Just have some fun with it.

GL all!

 
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Posted: #82
Lets go Bucks
 
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Posted: #83

Just an update on this whole thing if anyone is interested.  We had two games that fell into this 'trend' tonight.  Bucks vs. Pistons and Celtics vs. Thunder.  Boston manged to cover the spread after it went up while Milwaukee, with the spread going down did not.  Here's the updated overall record of both situations.

When the line goes up:  When the line opens at -3 or -3.5 and goes UP, the favorite has coverd 11 of 12 times this season.

When the line goes down: When the line opens at -3 or -3.5 and goes DOWN, the underdog has coverd 4 of 6 times this season.  In all the 4 games the underdog has covered, they've won outright.

So as you can see, the trend seems to be holding very steady when the line goes up.  Still have to take a wait and see approach with the line going down though.

Overall combined record: 15-3

 
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Posted: #84

Sorry all, minor correction here.

When the line goes up:  When the line opens at -3 or -3.5 and goes UP, the favorite has coverd 10 of 11 times this season.

Overall combined record: 14-3

 
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Posted: #85

Thanks, Chris.    I, for one, am certainly interested in an angle that has gone 14-3. Thanks for calling our attention to it and taking time for the further clarification.

 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by Canada_Chris:

Sorry all, minor correction here.

When the line goes up:  When the line opens at -3 or -3.5 and goes UP, the favorite has coverd 10 of 11 times this season.

Overall combined record: 14-3

And when there is no change in the line, faves, so far, have covered at a rate of 66%. Correct? 4-2, I think you pointed out.

 
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Posted: #87

Thanks for the stats. Keep up the good work!

 
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Posted: #88

SPURS TONITE?

 Fits the bill for a spanking of denver and its public money ....

I had it opened at -3 and it went to -3.5... while many sources have most of the action on denver....

whats your play mr.chris?

 
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Posted: #89
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by 35MOOSE35:

SPURS TONITE?

 Fits the bill for a spanking of denver and its public money ....

I had it opened at -3 and it went to -3.5... while many sources have most of the action on denver....

whats your play mr.chris?

Defenitley looks like the Spurs could be a play here.  I had them open at -3.5 on Pinnacle and the line is currently at -4.  Keep an eye on it just in case the line moves.

As of know though, Spurs are the play tonight.

 
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Posted: #91
Pistons opened at -3, and according to scoresandodds.com, line is -2.5
 
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Posted: #92
I took Wizards +3 and parlayed it with OVER 191, because neither of these two plays make sense.



 
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Posted: #93
this trend is somewhat ridiculous..
 
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Posted: #94
NY opened at -3.5 and is now at -3
 
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Posted: #95

Anyone have a record for this trend?

 
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Posted: #96
ny opened at -3.5,went down to -3,back up to -3.5,then -4,now down to -3.5.How would you read that? I say take charlotte +4 if you can get it.
 
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Posted: #97
good look
 
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Posted: #98
 
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Posted: #99
hey guys i have access to several spots for line opening i have check 6 of them and the line for the chi/mil open at 3 pts
 
 
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Posted: #100

LAKERS AND THE HAWKS BOTH THERE LINES OPENED

AT -3

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