great man.. im sure alot of people are aware of these line things.. ive done something with it lately and its an on going project of mine.. i have actually hired a team to set up some neural network smart learning data mining for me to following movments in odds and lines and a bunch of other factors to come up with plays and rate them and so on.. costly programing and stuff but im pretty sure its going to be worth it..
I believe you have to wait until just before gametime to determine whether or not the line is going to close up or down off the opening line of -3 or -3.5. Read the initial post of this thread. (If I'm reading things correctly.)
i didn't read the whole thread....its opening and closing lines. thanks me
Opened at LVSC at -1.5....opened at -2.5 everywhere else, moved to -3 at some, and is now -1 to -1.5 almost everywhere except Bodog which is -2. This as of 2 PM, Omaha, NE. time. If using LVSC opens, no play today. No -3 or -3.5 lines in NBA.
Boston and San Antonio (-3) tomorrow is posted on LVSC.
Yes, potnetially.. LVSC open is San Antonio -3. Two books immediately went to SA -1.5, Bodog and Sportsbook. If the line stays adjusted down to less than -3 close to game time, the play is Boston. This "system" play appears to be a case of LVSC putting out the line to the various houses and then the oddsmaker(s) at each respective book making their "adjustment" prior to the public receiving it and then a confirmation of the adjustment by the betting public. Makes sense. It's all about public perception anyway. The real X factor in the line is how the oddsmakers feel the public will wager anyway, not necessarily which team is better than the other power rating wise, etc.
The question is, or at least a question is, whether or not LVSC serves as a baseline. If you used LVSC regarding the Sacramento game last night, it was a no play at an opening of -2.5. If you grabbed a -3 line off a book after they had adjusted it and started from there, I think it was bet down, then came back to -3 at gametime, fell in the "remains the same" category and covered.
Chris,or anyone else, any insights on that ?? I think I'm looking at this correctly, but.....
great man.. im sure alot of people are aware of these line things.. ive done something with it lately and its an on going project of mine.. i have actually hired a team to set up some neural network smart learning data mining for me to following movments in odds and lines and a bunch of other factors to come up with plays and rate them and so on.. costly programing and stuff but im pretty sure its going to be worth it..
Sonofabitch, you're as deluded as your friend sammy11. 
ashdogs
Well just for the record, Boston wasn't a play tonight. I know some people said the line opened at -3, but I am using a specific book(Pinnacle) for the opening closing lines.
I think it's time to make another thread with the proper facts just in case.
BOL on the bet Aubsdad.
Well just for the record, Boston wasn't a play tonight. I know some people said the line opened at -3, but I am using a specific book(Pinnacle) for the opening closing lines.
I think it's time to make another thread with the proper facts just in case.
BOL on the bet Aubsdad.
Thanks, Chris..it worked out.
That's why I asked what book you were using as a baseline for an opening line. You didn't mention Pinnacle earlier, or maybe I missed it,so....
With so many different books out there nowadays I was just guessing as to what you might be using as a baseline. My best guess was LVSC since they put out the original line most books start with.
I, for one, appreciate you sharing your observations and insights with those of us not proficient at handicapping the NBA and I look forward to your new thread further clarifying how to play this particular angle you have chosen to share with us
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